Pension & Mortgage Advice

05/11/2025

Is the AI bubble about to burst?

There’s been a lot of talk lately about whether the AI and tech boom is about to run out of steam - and to be fair, there are some warning signs. Big-name stocks have soared, valuations are stretched, and the likes of Michael Burry (famous for predicting the 2008 crash) have placed large short positions on companies like Palantir and Nvidia in recent weeks.

But before panicking, it’s worth pointing out that whilst he got it right in 2008, Burry’s recent track record shows how hard it is to time markets:
📉 September 2019: He warned of a coming crash - yet the S&P 500 rose 15% over the next 12 months.
📉 March 2020: He went bearish during Covid’s early days - then the S&P 500 gained over 70% in the year that followed.
📉 January 2023: He tweeted one word - “Sell,” predicting a recession - but stocks surged, and the Nasdaq had its best first half in 40 years. By March, he admitted he was wrong.

That said, there are some similarities between now and the dot-com bubble of 2000 - such as overvaluations, hype, and a handful of mega-cap tech names dominating the market.

But there is also one key difference. In 2000, many dot-coms had no profits and unproven models. Today’s big tech and AI firms are highly profitable and cash-rich. The top 10 U.S. stocks now make up about 28.8% of all market earnings, compared with just 16.1% back in 2000.

So yes, we might see a dip in tech and AI-heavy U.S. equities, but that’s not necessarily bad news for long-term investors.

If you’re still working and contributing into your pension or other investment vehicles, a market dip can actually be an opportunity, as volatility can help in the sense that your short term contributions are getting more value for the amount you’re putting in by buying cheaper units!

For those already retired, it’s a different story. Having exposure to growth assets has been great over the past year (aside from April’s wobble when Trump’s Tariffs briefly shook markets). But when markets fall, taking withdrawals during that time can damage your pension’s longevity. Drawing income from a falling fund locks in losses which can become problematic.

That’s why maintaining balance and diversification is so important - enough growth to keep pace with inflation, but enough stability to weather short-term volatility.

At the end of the day, no one can perfectly time the market. The best results for most people come from staying invested, keeping contributions consistent, and ignoring the noise.

Time in the market always beats timing the market!

03/11/2025

Pre-Budget Planning… What Are the Facts?

With the Budget just over three weeks away, many people are understandably worried about what changes could be made - and how this might impact their money.

Over recent months, there’s been plenty of speculation about possible changes to pension rules. One of the biggest rumours is that the government could reduce the amount you can take tax-free from your pension - from around £268,000 to £100,000.

So, naturally, some people are considering taking their tax-free cash early.

But here’s the thing: taking money out now could carry real risks.

There’s been a huge rise in people accessing their pension tax-free cash recently. In the six months up to March 2025, £10.43 billion was withdrawn - 72% more than in the same period the year before. For the full 2024/25 tax year, withdrawals reached £18.08 billion, up around 61% from 2023/24.

Taking your tax-free cash early might feel reassuring and moving it from a pension wrapper into something like an ISA might seem like a way to “protect” it from pension rule changes. But with talk of potential ISA limits too, you could simply be swapping one risk for another – and could end up facing Capital Gains Tax or tax on interest instead. It’s a bit like locking your front door securely but leaving the side door wide open!

It’s completely natural to feel uneasy - this is a big decision. But what feels like the safe move now could expose you to different risks later. The right choice really depends on your individual circumstances, so it’s worth pausing until we know what the changes are going to be, before coming up with a plan on how to tackle them.

23/10/2025

Good news for pensioners – the State Pension went up in April 2025!
On 6th April 2025, the full new State Pension increased to £230.25 a week (up from £221.20), and the basic State Pension (for those on the older system) rose to £176.45 a week. That was a 4.1% increase – a welcome boost to help with rising costs. 💷
So, what caused the rise? It was thanks to the “triple lock” – the rule that your State Pension goes up each year by whichever is highest of:

📈 inflation (CPI),
💼 average wage growth, or
🔒 2.5%.

It’s designed to make sure pensions keep up with the cost of living – and for 2025, wage growth was the biggest factor behind the increase.

Looking ahead – the triple lock is getting pricey for the government, so there’s always talk it could be changed or toned down in future. But for now, it’s still in place and doing its job.

If you aren't yet at state pension age and don't know what you may be eligible for- you can check using this link-

Find out how much State Pension you could get (your forecast), when you could get it and how you could increase it

16/10/2025

Inheritance Tax is no longer just for the ultra-wealthy - and pensions could soon make the difference.

Almost a year ago, Rachel Reeves announced that from April 2027, unused pensions will be included when calculating Inheritance Tax (IHT).

According to the Government’s own estimates, in 2027/28:

• 10,500 estates will become liable for IHT that wouldn’t have been before, and
• 38,500 estates will see an increase in their IHT bill.

Many people assume they’re still well below the threshold - especially those in nuclear families who can combine allowances of up to £1 million (including the residence nil-rate band).

But if you’re single, divorced, or don’t have a direct descendant (child or grandchild) to inherit your home, your estate may only benefit from the £325,000 standard nil-rate band.

With the average UK home valued around £270,000, that leaves just £55,000 of leeway before IHT could start biting - and that’s before considering pensions, savings, investments, even down to the value of your car!

While this rule change will pull more estates into the IHT net, the bigger impact may come from income tax. Why?

Because one of the simplest ways to reduce a future IHT bill is to spend or gift your pension -and that typically means paying income tax when drawing the funds.

In other words: more people will face a tax trade-off between spending now and leaving wealth later.

This highlights the real value of having a clear financial plan as you approach (and live through) retirement.

Not to chase loopholes -but to make confident, informed choices that protect both your lifestyle and your legacy.

16/10/2025

Inheritance Tax is no longer just for the ultra-wealthy - and pensions could soon make the difference.

Almost a year ago, Rachel Reeves announced that from April 2027, unused pensions will be included when calculating Inheritance Tax (IHT).

According to the Government’s own estimates, in 2027/28:

• 10,500 estates will become liable for IHT that wouldn’t have been before, and
• 38,500 estates will see an increase in their IHT bill.

Many people assume they’re still well below the threshold - especially those in nuclear families who can combine allowances of up to £1 million (including the residence nil-rate band).

But if you’re single, divorced, or don’t have a direct descendant (child or grandchild) to inherit your home, your estate may only benefit from the £325,000 standard nil-rate band.

With the average UK home valued around £270,000, that leaves just £55,000 of leeway before IHT could start biting - and that’s before considering pensions, savings, investments, even down to the value of your car!

While this rule change will pull more estates into the IHT net, the bigger impact may come from income tax. Why?

This is because one of the simplest ways to reduce a future IHT bill is to spend or gift your pension -and that typically means paying income tax when drawing the funds.

In other words: more people will face a tax trade-off between spending now and leaving wealth later.

This highlights the real value of having a clear financial plan as you approach (and live through) retirement.

Not to chase loopholes -but to make confident, informed choices that protect both your lifestyle and your legacy.

04/09/2025

Hi everyone! Just a quick introduction. I’m Ewan, and I help individuals, families, and small business owners make confident financial decisions, whether that’s planning for retirement, protecting loved ones, or just getting a better handle on day-to-day money matters.

Personal finance can sometimes feel overwhelming or overly complicated. My goal here is to make it a bit clearer, more approachable, and maybe even a little interesting!

I’ll be sharing regular posts to help make sense of it all.
If that sounds helpful, feel free to follow along. And if there’s ever a topic you’d like to understand better, drop me a message or leave a comment.

Thanks again!

Ewan.