16/07/2026
Just when the recovery was starting to feel real, oil prices surged again. β½
Here's where things stand for Kiwi businesses right now:
π Oil jumped from US$71 to US$85 a barrel in just two weeks after renewed US-Iran conflict
β½ Petrol peaked at $3.40/litre in April, had eased to $2.90 - Westpac now forecasts $3.10 coming back
π Flow-on effects hit transport, shipping and fertiliser costs across the board
π¦ The Reserve Bank has warned it will not hesitate to act if inflation expectations rise again
πͺ The good news: manufacturing held up better than expected, and the domestic recovery is still real
The hardest part of running a business right now is not the crisis itself. It is the whiplash between crisis and recovery, and back again.
RNZ's Corin Dann puts it best: stop waiting for the latest crisis to pass before getting on with it. In the current geopolitical environment, the gap between crises may be shorter than the crises themselves.
Build resilience. Keep your cashflow buffers conservative. And plan for a world where uncertainty is the baseline, not the exception.
Read the full breakdown at the link in the comments. π
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