Hicks & Associates Wealth Management

10/23/2026

An update on a chart we shared recently ... and it's not good.
Oil is breaking out and that suggests inflation is likely to move higher too.

We know why oil skyrocketed earlier this year:
We went to war with Iran.

Ever since then, it's been sloppy.
There's been no clear trend.

Wildly up.
Wildly down.

Volatile.
Trendless volatility.

In the middle of the chart, it started to change.
Oil was still going up and down,
but with less volatility.

In other words the spikes up
and the spikes down were less severe.

On the right side of the chart,
it's gotten even tighter.

In other words, volatility has contracted;
it's gotta less volatile.

This is a sign that the bears are getting tired.
The folks (bears) trying to push oil down,
they're having a harder time.

The bulls have not been able to overpower them just yet.
But that blue rectangle I've added on the right?
That's the resistance as I see it.

If oil breaks above that level,
that's a sign the bulls have won.

And look what's happening today.
As of ~11 a.m. eastern, oil is breaking higher.

That's bullish for oil.
But rising oil is a headwind for stocks.

So, that's bearish for stocks.
That's bearish for the economy.

10/21/2026

The Bull in the Hat explains the stock market
(Who knows, maybe this'll be the second book I write.)

Yesterday, someone asked a question.
Basically, what sign will we see?
When will the market recover?

Tongue in cheek, I answered.

And while this is not the only signal,
this will be a KEY signal.

Market breadth has been VERY weak.
More stocks have been declining than rising.

"The market" can not go up if most are going down.
Well, at least not for long.

And, one day will not change a trend.
But we need to see more stocks going up.
We need to see fewer stocks continuing their slide down.

Risk is very high right now.
Bonds are not "safe" - they never were -
but they sure aren't "safe" in a rising rate environment.

You need to manage risk differently.
To learn more, buy Ted's book Evidence-Based Investing.

10/20/2026

More than half of the Stock Market is ALREADY in a Bear Market.
History suggests we should get a year-end rally.
But we might be burying a bull instead.

Maybe that's too melodramatic.
We are also very willing to be wrong here.

Our friends at Optuma rolled out a web-based version of their software, but we are still getting used to it.

So, maybe they'll correct me.
But I think I ran this script correctly.

The top pane is showing me the percent of stocks within the Russell 3000 that are already down 20% or more.

➡️ It's greater than 50%

The bottom pane is the S&P 500.
Yes, we know those are two different indices.

It's intentional.

The Russell 3000 captures ~95% of the US Stock Market.
The S&P 500 is the index with which you are most familiar.

So, we are using the Russell 3000 to measure the health of the overall U.S. stock market.

And, right now, the Russell 3000 is not looking too healthy.

Yes, we might get a year-end rally.
But if that rally doesn't start soon, and
If that rally is not sufficiently broad-based ...

Then we might be burying a bull.

For those of you close to retirement, know that it is very dangerous to use bonds as your portfolio stabilizer when we are in an upwardly biased interest rate environment.

Therefore, you need to adjust your risk differently than what you've likely been taught.

That's part of the point of Ted's book, Evidence-Based Investing.

10/19/2026

In our September 21st video, we discussed the danger when inflation reaches 5%. You might think we are not near 5%, but when you measure the rate of change over 18 months instead of the traditional 12 months, inflation is back above 5%.

Looking at the evidence from history, when the 18-month inflation gauge exceeds 5%, the stock market typically struggles. So, the fact that we are now back above 5%, well that is NOT a good sign.

Further evidence: last week the market's breadth weakened further. Simply put, more stocks are declining rather than advancing.

We may get a year-end rally. That's true, as historically, this is supposed to be a strong month. But, right now, that is NOT what we are seeing.

10/16/2026

We are NOT arguing that the US economy is gonna go bankrupt.
But we ARE arguing that we are in a different environment.
And you better be on guard.

This is a clip from Ted's time on the Financial Freedom Podcast.
Steven Richardson and Ted discussed many things.
The U.S. National Debt is one of them.

That said, Ted said something wrong here.
It's not that we issue our own currency.

As long as we can issue DEBT in our own currency,
we can argue that we will be fine.

However, that is not guaranteed forever.
Especially if we lose World Reserve Currency status.

That's beginning to happen already.
If you look under the surface, it's started.

And, soon, we will likely have to issue debt,
➡️ just to make debt payments.

❓ Does that sound like a healthy fiscally sound household?

Please don't fall asleep at the wheel.
Don't assume it'll all be okay.

We are convinced we are in an environment where you really should be tactical.

Buy 'n hold, in our opinion, is very dangerous in this environment.

It'll work for a time, sure.
'Til it won't.

10/14/2026

This morning's CPI report pushes that measure of inflation above 4%. However, if you have been following our content, you know that we also want to look at the 18-month rate of change. Take a look.

The traditional CPI stat is looking at a 12-month rate of change. But, as we discussed in our YouTube video from September 21st, when you look at an 18-month rate of change, the 5% level represents particularly dangerous territory for the S&P 500.

And today's inflation report pushed the 18-month rate of change above that 5% level.

10/13/2026

Right now, the market's internals are suggesting that this is not a healthy stock market. As a result, caution is very much advised ... especially if you are near or in retirement. There's just too much at stake.

10/01/2026

If you know your market history, 1999 was the last year of the great 1990s bull market run. Then, in March of 2000, the Dot Com bubble burst. Back then, we had the Dot Com stocks pushing the cap-weighted market indices higher while the...

If you know your market history, 1999 was the last year of the great 1990s bull market run. Then, in March of 2000, the Dot Com bubble burst.

10/01/2026

If you know your market history, 1999 was the last year of the great 1990s bull market run. Then, in March of 2000, the Dot Com bubble burst. Back then, we had the Dot Com stocks pushing the cap-weighted market indices higher while the...

09/25/2026

Do you want your doctor to receive a commission when they prescribe you certain medications or procedures?

A pet peeve of ours:
lots of financial "professionals" are just salesmen. That's not a knock on salesmen, that's a knock on the industry.

There's so much about this industry that is still very much a sales focused industry.

We do not have a problem with salesmen.
We do not have a problem with salesmen getting commissions.

But we do have a problem with professionals getting commissions.

We do not believe it's ethical for medical professionals to earn more money because they've prescribed some medication or some procedure.

We're willing to bet you would be shocked if you learned your doctor had a financial incentive to prescribe something to their patients.

The same is true for financial professionals.
If a commission is earned, was it really advice?

Or was it just a sales pitch.

This is a short clip from Fredrik Sandvall's podcast Invest In You. You can watch the full episode on YouTube here:

https://lnkd.in/e-vnJ4D4