04/08/2026
SECRET SERVICE // MARKET INTELLIGENCE BRIEF
Operational date: 07.04.2026
Scope: BTCUSD, XAUUSD | D1 / H4 / H1 | tactical plan + scenarios
Today the market will not pay for narratives. It will pay for entries taken inside the right zone and for recognizing fast when the thesis is no longer valid.
Macro remains hard. Reuters reports spot gold around $4,684.59/oz, while markets are focused on the Hormuz ultimatum and the Fed rate path; at the same time, China increased its gold reserves for the 17th consecutive month to 74.38 million ounces, although the reserve value declined after March’s selloff in bullion. Reuters also cites Austan Goolsbee and John Williams: the war is pushing energy prices higher, increasing inflation pressure, and complicating the Fed’s policy response, with rates still held in the 3.50%–3.75% range. That means markets are currently trading through oil shock -> inflation -> rates, not through the simplistic framework of “war = buy every safe haven.” (reuters.com
)
March payrolls were strong on the headline: +178k, unemployment 4.3%, although Reuters also noted weaker underlying details such as lower participation and a shorter workweek. The market interprets that as another reason why the Fed does not need to rush cuts. That in turn keeps pressure on gold through the dollar and limits BTC’s ability to produce a sustained breakout unless liquidity conditions improve materially. (reuters.com
)
BTCUSD — technical and operational analysis
D1
On the daily chart price sits at 69,268, which means it remains below the main trend-recovery zone. The structure is very clear:
local daily resistance around 69,864
higher strategic shelves at 72,701 and 75,388
important support below at 67,878
then the risk zone around 63,772
the extreme reference point remains near 59,992
The daily structure is no longer as bearish as it was in late March, but it is still not a full bullish trend. This is a recovery leg inside a broader range. The most important point: D1 has returned to the long blue average / structural mean and is testing it. That means the market is sitting exactly where bulls must prove something.
H4
H4 is the key decision frame right now:
current price around 69,275
dynamic / technical resistance: 69,757
higher: 70,513
important pivot below: 67,945
then 67,661
lower defense zone: 67,164–67,031
deeper: 66,243, 66,128, 65,764–65,592
local swing low: 64,981
H4 shows:
the bounce from April 5–6 was strong,
but the market failed to hold the 70,340 high,
and the current candle is rebounding after a drop while still sitting below 69,757 and below the broader 70k+ band.
The Elliott oscillator on H4 is still positive, but it is clearly fading relative to the previous impulse. This is not an ideal environment for chasing longs in the middle of resistance.
H1
H1 gives the most precise ex*****on map:
current price 69,269.96
current resistance: 69,281, while 69,153–69,096 has already been reclaimed locally
higher important levels: 69,312, 69,773, 69,887, 70,171
lower: 68,901, 68,786, 68,643
deeper: 68,270, 68,189
lower still: 67,936, 67,805, 67,700
emergency zone: 65,709
On H1 the structure is classic:
flush into the low,
rebound impulse,
hesitation,
now a second attempt higher.
This is a breakout-or-rejection setup, not a market to trade blindly in the middle. Above price there is still a dense harmonic / Fibonacci cluster from roughly 69.31k to 70.17k. If price cannot secure follow-through there, it is likely to rotate back into mean reversion.
Harmonics / Fibonacci / structure
On H1 a prior bearish Gartley / AB=CD cluster remains visible above price, roughly from 69.9k to 70.3k. That reinforces the idea that:
the first push into 70k may be sold,
only an H1/H4 close above 70.17k–70.34k would justify a continuation breakout framework.
Momentum / delta / oscillator read
I do not have Bookmap or footprint here, but from price reaction and oscillator behavior:
H1 momentum is turning positive again,
H4 momentum is weaker than during the previous push,
D1 has still not confirmed a full trend reversal.
This is the profile of a market where buying the breakout only makes sense after confirmation, while selling the first failure near 70k offers a better risk structure.
BTC fundamentals
The fundamental background is not cleanly bullish. March spot BTC ETFs posted $1.32 billion in net inflows, which improved the medium-term picture, but Reuters and broader markets are still trading inflation, oil, and the dollar first. In this macro structure, Bitcoin still behaves more like a risk asset than a fully credible hedge. (reuters.com
)
BTC conclusion
Base bias: neutral-bearish until the market reclaims 70.17k–70.34k on a durable basis.
Tactically: price is too high to buy blindly and still too low to call a clean bullish breakout.
BTC — 3 trading plans
Plan 1 — base case
BTC sell 69,750–70,170, SL 70,560, TP 69,150 / 68,900 / 68,270, predictability 60%
Why:
this is a sell setup directly into the first dense H1/H4 resistance zone, aligned with fading H4 momentum.
Plan 2 — buy the dip
BTC buy 68,900–68,300, SL 67,930, TP 69,310 / 69,760 / 70,170, predictability 47%
Why:
this is the only sensible long without breakout confirmation. Buy reaction support, not mid-range price.
Plan 3 — breakout continuation
BTC buy only after H1/H4 close > 70,170, SL 69,280, TP 70,510 / 71,040 / 72,700, predictability 39%
Why:
only then does the market clear the local resistance cluster and switch from sideways auction to further squeeze potential.
XAUUSD — technical and operational analysis
D1
On D1 price is 4,708.00, sitting directly at the first major technical test after the rebound from 4,098. The key levels are:
38.2: 4,671.54
44.7: 4,769.00
50.0: 4,848.47
61.8: 5,025.40
support / defense zones: 4,384.84, then 4,151.27, 4,117.16, 4,098.77
The crucial point: D1 has reclaimed 38.2 and is now sitting just below 44.7. This is a decision zone, not a calm trend. If the daily market cannot break through 4,769–4,848, then this recovery remains only a correction inside a larger damaged structure. If it does break that area, the structure improves materially.
H4
H4 is stronger than BTC in this package:
current price 4,707.94
resistance: 4,723.08, 4,744.05
higher: 4,759.00
support: 4,654.56, 4,603.49
below that 4,462.93
and deeper retracement references around 4,532 / 4,486 / 4,449
H4 shows:
a sequence of higher lows since April 2,
successful holding above the blue structural average,
a bullish impulse that has not yet been rejected the way BTC has.
That is the key difference: gold on H4 looks stronger than BTC on H4.
H1
H1 gives the best intraday ex*****on map:
current price 4,707.26
local high 4,706.08 already tested
higher: 4,706.70 and other nearby upper levels, practically price is already in breakout territory above the local consolidation
supports: roughly 4,658–4,665 around the blue average
below that important levels: 4,634.79, 4,628.82
deeper: 4,602.61
from the larger scale: 4,549–4,489
On H1 a bearish max Gartley is marked above price. That means:
the short term is already close to a zone where profit-taking may emerge,
but the market has not produced rejection yet. That is what separates gold from BTC today, where rejection is already partially visible.
Harmonics / PRZ
On H1 there is a harmonic zone clustered roughly in 4,706–4,789, then higher around 4,914. On H4 the nearest practical resistance band is 4,723–4,759.
In practice:
gold is on the edge of a breakout,
but it is breaking directly into a harmonic ceiling, so confirmation must be strict.
Momentum / oscillator
D1: clear improvement, histogram is recovering from deeply negative levels.
H4: positive momentum is holding, without clear exhaustion yet.
H1: positive momentum is building and looks better than BTC.
That is unambiguous: short-term gold has a better tape than BTC.
Gold fundamentals
Reuters reports that China has been buying gold for 17 consecutive months, and Jim Wyckoff stresses that beyond geopolitics the market is also focused heavily on central bank policy and rates. That fits the current chart: strategic demand is keeping the market structurally supported, while every improvement in sentiment or dollar softness creates room for strong rebounds. At the same time, the same Reuters narrative reminds us that high rates still cap upside, so every breakout must be confirmed, not anticipated blindly. (reuters.com
)
Gold conclusion
Base bias: moderately bullish tactically, neutral strategically until 4,723–4,759 is reclaimed and then 4,848 is attacked.
Gold looks better than BTC today, but it is sitting under a PRZ, so it should not be bought blindly if price immediately slips back under 4,700.
GOLD — 3 trading plans
Plan 1 — base case
GOLD buy 4,685–4,655, SL 4,603, TP 4,723 / 4,744 / 4,759, predictability 59%
Why:
H4 has higher lows, H1 has positive momentum, and price is holding above the moving structure and above the first breakout shelf.
Plan 2 — fade resistance
GOLD sell 4,744–4,790, SL 4,848, TP 4,700 / 4,655 / 4,603, predictability 46%
Why:
this is a sell only if actual seller reaction appears directly inside the harmonic ceiling.
Plan 3 — breakout continuation
GOLD buy only after a durable break > 4,759, SL 4,700, TP 4,848 / 4,914 / 5,022, predictability 41%
Why:
only then does the market stop being “just a rebound” and begin an attack on the 50% retracement on D1.
Relative strength: BTC vs GOLD
On these new charts:
BTC is still a recovery market under resistance.
Gold is a market with better short-term momentum and a cleaner H4 structure.
If only one market had to be chosen today with a cold head:
on BTC, the higher-quality setup is still a short from resistance rather than a long from the middle,
on gold, the higher-quality setup is buy on dip or breakout continuation rather than shorting current market price.
Highest-conviction setups right now
BTC sell 69,750–70,170, SL 70,560, TP 69,150 / 68,900 / 68,270, predictability 60%
GOLD buy 4,685–4,655, SL 4,603, TP 4,723 / 4,744 / 4,759, predictability 59%
Brutally practical version
If this were my own capital:
BTC: I would not buy 69.8k. I would wait for price to move into the zone and then either execute the short or require a confirmed breakout hold.
Gold: I would not chase the candle at 4,707. I would either buy the pullback into 4,685–4,655, or buy only a confirmed break above 4,759.
