09/13/2023
Current homeowners, prospective sellers, and recent homebuyers have worried that would fall due to rising rates. They did, but in many parts of the country, home prices have completely recovered from what turned out to be a blip, not a crash. Mortgage rates are important to home prices. But as the late, great comedian Mitch Hedberg once said of making homemade Sprite with just lemons and limes: “There’s more to it than that”.
Sometimes the relationship between and home prices can move counter to conventional wisdom. From 1950 all the way through 1981, home prices appreciated very steadily despite rising interest rates.* (See chart.)
*The reason why may be because while home prices have been NEGATIVELY correlated with interest rates they have also been POSITIVELY correlated with inflation. So when inflation is behind why interest rates are rising, home prices can still appreciate.
So there’s no guarantee that home prices will fall (or become more affordable, depending on your perspective) just because of higher mortgage rates.
Other things are going on: Yes, demand has fallen off a cliff because prospective homebuyers have been priced out. But supply has also fallen because many current homeowners feel “stuck” with a low mortgage rate they’ll lose if they sell and move, which they otherwise might do.
Paradoxically, homes might not become cheaper until interest rates fall (not rise further). It depends on why interest rates are falling. Are they falling just because has been put under control (a benign outcome) or is it also because a recession is looming?
This short commentary is based on a longer article in Hesperian Wealth’s most recent quarterly newsletter to clients.