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Zambian Investor, Lusaka (2026)

24/09/2026

Investors welcome to part 3.

Did you know that you can have a K2.1 million net worth but still be looking for a kaloba lender on a Friday afternoon?

Let me show you how.

You own three plots in Lusaka West and Chalala.

Combined value K1.8 million.

You hold LuSE shares worth K350,000.

Total net worth K2,150,000.

Then your child's school calls. K40,000. Due Monday. Agony!

You go to the school office.

You cannot hand her a title deed for a plot in Chalala.
Your plots are real. Your shares are real. Your net worth is real.
But none of it is liquid. And the school does not accept illiquid assets.

So you call the kaloba lender.

25% monthly interest. On K40,000. Because your K2.1 million could not save you on a Friday.

This is the trap catching Zambian investors right now.

Not bad investments. Not poor planning.

Just the wrong structure.

Over the last 2 posts we watched Dangote solve exactly this problem but at industrial level.

He did not sell his refinery to fund the refinery. He structured his portfolio so that each layer serves a different purpose.

Your portfolio needs the same three layers.

Layer 1 The Growth Engine.

Your plots in Chalala. Your LuSE shares. Your farming venture. High potential return. Zero liquidity. These assets build your net worth over years not days. They are not for emergencies.

Layer 2 The Income Layer.

Dividend stocks on LuSE. A rental unit. Assets that pay you regularly while you hold them. ZANACO paying K0.49 per share. Airtel paying four times per year. These create cash flow without selling anything.

Layer 3 The Liquidity Buffer.

This is the one most us investors skip.
91-day or 182-day Treasury Bills from the Bank of Zambia. A high-yield savings account. Three to six months of expenses sitting somewhere you can reach by Monday morning.

Not earning the highest return. Just there, waiting for that ka unforseen pressure that is alwaysaround the corner.

Dangote's lesson for us is not about billions.

It is about structure.

Paper wealth builds status.

Cash flow runs operations.

Liquidity ensures survival.

We need all three.

This is financial education, not investment advice. Always consult a licensed professional before investing.

Which of the three layers is weakest in your portfolio right now?

24/09/2026

Investors muli bwanji?

After yesterday's post someone asked
"Why doesn't Dangote just sell some of his shares to raise the cash?"

It is a fair question.

The man is worth over $20 billion. The refinery needs capital. Why go through the complexity of an IPO?

Let's try and explain using something every Zambian property owner understands.

Imagine you own a house in Ibex Hill worth K5 million.
You need K500,000 for a renovation that will increase the value to K8 million.

Option 1 sell part of the house.
You find a buyer for 10% of the house at K500,000. Problem solved. But now you own 90% of a house. You cannot decide to renovate the kitchen without consulting your co-owner. You cannot sell without their agreement.

And here is the part most people miss.

The moment you announce you are selling 10% of your house ba neighbour start asking why. Is there a problem with the foundation? Is the area declining? Why is he selling?

The asking price drops. Your K5 million house is now valued at K4.2 million by the market. You raised K500,000 but lost K800,000 in perceived value.

Dangote selling $5 billion of personal shares to fund the refinery would trigger exactly this.

Markets panic when founders sell. The question is always does he know something we do not?

His $47 billion company could lose $10 billion in market value while he raises $5 billion in cash.

That is a terrible trade.

Option 2 borrow against the asset.

Use the house as collateral. Take a loan. Complete the renovation. The house is now worth K8 million. Repay the loan from the increased rental income.
You kept 100% ownership. You kept control. The asset did the work.

This is project finance. The refinery's future cash flows are the collateral not Dangote's personal shares.

Option 3 sell a small fraction to the public.

Just enough to raise the capital needed.
Dangote is selling roughly 10% of the refinery through this IPO.

He keeps 87% and therefore keeps control. The public gets access to future profits. The refinery gets the capital it needs.

This is why wealthy people use IPOs not because they need the money desperately but because it is the most efficient way to raise capital without sacrificing control or triggering a market panic.

And Dangote added one more reason that matters specifically for Africa.
An IPO lets employees, pension funds, and ordinary citizens become co-owners of an industrial engine.

In part 3. What does any of this have to do with you and LuSE?

This is financial education, not investment advice. Always consult a licensed professional before investing.

Did the Ibex Hill analogy help explain the mechanics?

Here is part 3 https://www.facebook.com/61571231667225/posts/122173234016707722/

23/09/2026

Investors, apologies. We have been very quiet on this page. I trust we are all well.

Although not directly related to LuSE, the Dangote IPO has been covered widely.

In a recent interview, Aliko Dangote was asked "If you're Africa’s richest man, why not just dip into your personal fortune to build the project?"

Dangote’s answer revealed one of the most misunderstood rules of money.

Net Worth is NOT Cash.

When you read that someone is worth "$10 Billion" it doesn't mean that is the cash in the bank.

For Mr. Dangote that number actually represents
Shares in operating companies (Dangote Cement, Sugar, Fertilizer)
Industrial infrastructure (factories, port facilities, distribution fleets)
Physical assets and land
If Forbes estimates an investor’s net worth at $15 Billion, that simply means:

Shares owned × share price = paper valuation

It is an appraisal of what those productive assets are worth on paper today. It is not money sitting in a current account at a commercial bank.

In fact, keeping billions in cash inside a bank account would be terrible financial management inflation would silently erode its purchasing power every single month.

Wealthy founders put their capital into productive assets that work for them.

Which means You can be wealthy on paper, yet completely illiquid.

In Part 2, we will look at what would actually happen if a billionaire tried to "cash out" their shares to pay for a multi-billion-dollar project and why smart operators use debt instead.

If someone owns K3,000,000 worth of farm land in Chongwe but only has K5,000 in their mobile money wallet today, are they rich, broke, or both?

Here is part 2 https://www.facebook.com/61571231667225/posts/122173215980707722/

10/09/2026

NATB down 8.45% today. REIZUSD down 6.67%.

Two red arrows on the same morning.

But a red arrow is not a verdict. It is a meter reading.

Your ZESCO prepaid meter drops — you investigate before you act.
Your stock screen works exactly the same way. Here is how to read it.

https://www.facebook.com/share/p/196NxcZp9D/

09/09/2026

Deborah in our WhatsApp group shared her Chumma app screenshot and asked

"What does the red arrow mean?
What does the percentage mean?
How do I read this?"

Let’s try ànd explain it using something we are all familiar with the ZESCO prepaid meter.

Your meter shows two things.
Your current balance how many units you have right now.
And whether that balance is moving faster or slower than usual.

If your balance drops from 50 units to 10 units overnight you do not panic immediately. But you investigate. Something consumed more power than expected. The stove was left on or a family member who forgot to switch off the geyser.

The red number tells you something changed. Our job is to find out what.

The trending stocks screen works exactly the same way.

Each stock shows you three things.

1. The ticker the company's short name. NATB. SCBL. ZFCO. ZNCO.

2. The current price what one share costs right now. K2.60. K1.23. K8.50. K9.43.

3. The percentage change how much the price moved since yesterday's close.

The green number with an upward arrow means the meter topped up. The red number with a downward arrow means the meter dropped.

NATB at -8.45% that meter dropped significantly overnight. Worth investigating what consumed that much.

REIZUSD at -6.67% also dropped.

Two meters running low on the same morning.

SCBL at +0.82% small top-up. Slightly more units than yesterday.

ZFCO at -0.47% barely moved. Almost the same as yesterday.

ZNCO at -0.11% essentially unchanged. The meter is stable.

When your ZESCO meter drops unexpectedly you do not immediately call your landlord and cancel your lease.

You investigate first.

Did you forget to top up? Did an appliance malfunction? Is the reading temporary?

The same discipline applies to a red arrow on your stock screen.

NATB down 8.45% in one day is a signal not a conclusion.

The first question is not "should I sell?"

The first question should be "why did the meter drop?"

Is it a company specific problem falling profits, bad results, a cautionary announcement?

Or is it a market-wide movement election uncertainty, thin trading volume, one large seller clearing a position?

The colour tells you direction.

The percentage tells you the size.

Your research tells you whether to act.

Never cancel the plan based on the morning meter reading alone.

This is financial education, not investment advice. Always consult a licensed professional before investing.

When you see a red arrow on your stock app what is the first thing you do?

05/09/2026

Woza weekend investors!

We were looking at the PUMA Energy order book a screen full of numbers that is not the easiest to understand. You know us we are ba Group D and only understand things when explained in simple terms.

So lets use the Kulima Tower station to help us explain.

The order book has two sides.
Left side passengers. Buyers. People with cash waiting to board.
1,237 passengers at the front of the line with K2.30 ready. That is the best bid.

They are not moving. K2.30. Not a ngwee more.

Right side ba conductors. Sellers. People with seats waiting to fill.
36,970 empty seats available at K2.45. That is the best ask.

They are not moving either. K2.45. Take it or walk.

The gap between K2.30 and K2.45 is 15 ngwee this is the spread.

And while both sides stand firm not a single bus leaves the station.

No trade happens.

Now the two most important characters hiding at the back.

1. Ba Lindiwe the urgent commuter.

She needs to get to Kabwata now. No time to negotiate. She pays K2.45 the conductor's price and the bus leaves.

That is a market order. Urgency beats patience.

The trade happens because one side blinks.

2. the church group going to the conference at Heroes Stadium 20,297 passengers waiting at K2.00. Far below today's price. Not going anywhere.

But his massive group means if conductors ever panic and drop prices he absorbs everything.

Prices cannot fall past K2.00 as long as he is standing there.

That is market depth. The floor that prevents collapse.

Now look at the full order book again.

36,970 seats at K2.45. Only 1,237 passengers at K2.30.

Sellers outnumber buyers 30 to 1 at current prices.

That is significant selling pressure on PUMA Energy right now.

And the lone conductor asking K3.06 32% above everyone else is the guy who wandered into the wrong bus stand.

He is not getting a passenger today.

The order book is not a table of numbers.

It is a negotiation between people with money, patience, and urgency playing out in real time.

Next time you open Chumma app look for the church group organiser at K2.00.

He is the most important person at the bus station.

This is financial education, not investment advice. Always consult a licensed professional before investing.

Which character at the bus stand are you Lindiwe or the patient church group organiser?

28/08/2026

Ba na Chipo has been selling tomatoes at K15.46 all morning.

Buyers are queueing. Demand is strong.

She thinks tomorrow I will charge K16.00.

Then a truck pulls up behind her stall.
240,000 tomatoes. Large commercial farm. Driver puts up a sign. K15.67. All you want.

Ba na Chipo cannot raise her price above K15.67.
The moment she tries every buyer walks past her to the truck.

The truck is not undercutting her.

It is capping her ceiling.

She can sell at K15.46. K15.50. K15.60.
But K15.68? Never. The truck is right there.

That truck is the 239,993 CECZ shares sitting at K15.67 on the order book.

Until that truck empties the price is going nowhere above K15.67.

This is what a price ceiling looks like.

Just a truck parked behind the stall.

Order Book Lesson Identify where the serious money is sitting.

27/08/2026

Someone shared this CECZ order book in our WhatsApp group today.

Which showed best bid K15.46 and best ask K15.47.Only one ngwee apart.

Most people look at this and think interesting. Then move on.

I want to show you 5 questions that turn this screenshot into an actual decision framework.

These work with any order book on any stock.

Question 1 Is there a trade to be made today?

If both bid and ask exist then yes.
If bid or ask is a dash then whala no trade.

For CECZ today the answer is yes. One ngwee apart means a trade is almost certain very soon.

Question 2 How long is the queue ahead of me?

31,184 shares are sitting at K15.47. That is the queue you join if you want to buy at the best ask.

We can see that CECZ traded 243,156 shares on August 20. Your queue clears in one session. For a less liquid stock this queue could mean waiting weeks.

Those are the times you start wondering if the app is misbehaving again.

Question 3 Where is the serious money sitting?

Look past the best bid and ask. Find the largest single orders. As we have always said pay attention to what the big buyers are doing.

In this case on the buy side 100,000 shares at K13.50. Someone with serious capital is waiting 12.7% below today's price.

On the sell side 239,993 shares at K15.67. A large seller wants K0.20 more than today's best ask before they exit.

Those two orders define the real negotiation range. K13.50 to K15.67. Not K15.46 to K15.47 that we see on the app.

Question 4 Who is winning buyers or sellers?

Add up both sides.
Total supply about 406,000 shares.
Total demand about 106,000 shares.

Sellers outnumber buyers 4 to 1 on CECZ today.

Think of it like this Ba na Chipo is selling tomatoes at K15.46. A buyer offers K15.47.

But parked at the entrance to Soweto Market visible to everyone is a chi large truck. A commercial farmer Chongwe with 240,000 tomatoes. He is not selling yet. He wants K15.67 not a ngwee less.

Every buyer at the market knows he is there.

So as prices start to rise nobody pays above K15.67.

They would rather wait for the farmer to unload than overpay at the stalls.

The farmer's truck is not even in the market yet. But his price is controlling every negotiation inside it.

That is what 239,993 shares sitting at K15.67 does to CECZ today.

Question 5 Can I exit if I need to?

This is the question most of us never ask before we buy.
If you bought 1,000 CECZ shares today at K15.47 and tomorrow have a ka pressure to sort out could I sell quickly at a reasonable price?

Look at the buy side above K15.00.

Only 1,195 shares at K15.40 or better.

Your 1,000 shares would consume most of that immediately. The next meaningful buyer is the 100,000 share order at K13.50 a 12.7% loss from where you bought.

Less buyers than sellers means your exit risk is real.

So that is the order book is not just a price display.

It is a negotiation in progress.

These five questions turn it from a screenshot into a decision.

Apply them every time before you place an order on LuSE.

This is financial education, not investment advice. Always consult a licensed professional before investing.

Which of these five questions do you find hardest to answer?

26/08/2026

It has been intresting times in Zambia over the past week. Thank goodness we are not politicians but investors.

The number of the day is $500 million.

That is REIZ's target portfolio size by end 2028.

Yesterday they reported their best ever half year results.

Revenue up 29.7% to $7.6 million.
Profit up 20.8% to $4.07 million.
Operating cash flow up 31.5% to $5.7 million.
Portfolio $110.4 million.

The growth story since REIT status in May 2024 is genuinely remarkable.

$33 million two years ago. $110.4 million today. A 234% increase in portfolio size in 24 months.

But lets take a look at the maths behind the $500 million target because it tells us something important about what comes next for every REIZ shareholder.

So the current portfolio is $110.4 million.
Add EastPark if the EGM approved the deal on July 30.

51% of a building independently valued at $160 million. Proportional addition to portfolio approximately $81.6 million.
Adding EastPark brings the portfolio value to $192 million.

Since the target is $500 million.
REIZ has to grow portfolio $308 million in 28 months by the end of 2028.

To get the monthly acquisition pace required to close that gap the need to aquire property worth $11 million every single month for the next 28 months. Ni pa tali.

If we compare the current acquisition pace over the past 27 months it has been $2.87 million per month.

The target requires nearly four times the current pace. The math is not matching.

Now is this impossible? No.

REIZ stated the strategy clearly share and asset swap arrangements. More rights issues. More EGMs. More deals like EastPark.

But more rights issues means more dilution. More EGMs means more votes. More deals means more scrutiny.

For investors who subscribed to the REIZ rights issue this is the forward looking question.

The half-year results prove the business model works. Revenue growing. Cash flowing. Tax exemption delivering real value to shareholders.

The $500 million target proves the ambition is real.

The honest question is whether the pace of deal making can increase fourfold in 28 months.

That answer will come from the next announcement not this one.

Watch SENS.

This is financial education, not investment advice. Always consult a licensed professional before investing.

Do you think REIZ can reach $500 million by 2028?

19/08/2026

Zambia has a result. No breaking news here,
President Hichilema re-elected. With approximately 60% of valid votes.

The uncertainty that has been sitting over every investment conversation since May has lifted.
Lets see what the data says because the real story is not what already happened. It is what comes next.

What happened to LuSE during the election period.
Palibe, ni zee LASI closed July 31 at 25,806.63 down just 0.44% year to date. The dramatic election sell-off most investors feared never arrived.

There was more action on the bond market.
Remeber the April 24 auction it came in at 43% subscription. Government offered K6.3 billion. Only K2.69 billion in bids arrived. We said at the time that election uncertainty was a possible reason.

Now the result is confirmed. The question changes from "what happened during the election" to "what happens next."

Three specific things to watch.

1. The IMF successor programme.
This is the real ichola. The previous $1.7 billion IMF arrangement expired in January 2026. We need to secure a new sprogramme by end of 2026.

Negotiating with the IMF close to elections is harder because policy commitments become politically. The election is now done. Successor programme negotiations can move faster.

Why does this matter for your investments?

The IMF is what brought offshore investors back to Zambian bonds in February pushing demand to K21.3 billion. The absence of that anchor contributed to the April undersubscription.

A successor programme could restore that confidence.

For now we watch for IMF announcement in the coming weeks.

2. The next bond auction.
Finance Minister Musokotwane said it is still too soon for Zambia to return to international bond markets. The government wants to focus its relationship with the IMF first.

But domestic bond auctions continue. The next auction will be the first after the election and will show if domestic and offshore demand has recovered.

We need to watch for subscription rates and yield direction. If subscription exceeds 100% election uncertainty has cleared. If yields fall confidence is returning.

3. The Zambia 2033 Eurobond.
Zambia's 2033 dollar bond was bid at 97.72 cents on the dollar on Tuesday unchanged.

The 97.72 cents is close to par which is 100. It signals international investors are comfortable with continuity but are not yet excited. They are waiting for the IMF programme not just the election result.

When the IMF programme is signed that bond could move toward par or above. That would signal the full return of international confidence.

The election did not create the dramatic buying opportunity the theory suggested. LASI barely moved. The real opportunity if it exists is forward-looking.

Bally's second term gives investors the policy continuity they wanted. But continuity is the starting point not the destination.

The IMF programme is the next catalyst. The bond auctions are the next test. The kwacha trajectory is the next signal.

These are the three things every Zambian investor should be watching right now.

This is financial education, not investment advice. Always consult a licensed professional before investing.
What are you watching most closely in the post-election market?

Zambian Investor

24/09/2026

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