https://www.linkedin.com/in/jasonyuliu/

Jason Liu - Investment Advisor, 2845 Bristol Circle, Oakville, ON (2026)

01/28/2025

每週評論 – 截至1月24日的一週

全球股市在截至1月24日的一週中上漲。投資者希望新一屆美國總統政府的政策將有利於商業發展。然而，關稅威脅仍然令人擔憂。在加拿大，S&P/TSX綜合指數上漲，主要由信息技術板塊領漲。美國股市本週表現相對強勁。加拿大和美國的10年期國債收益率有所下降。黃金價格本週上漲，而油價下跌。美國總統唐納德·特朗普表示，他將要求石油輸出國組織（OPEC）降低油價。

加拿大通脹率回落
加拿大的通脹率從上月的1.9%下降至12月的1.8%。經濟學家預計通脹將維持在1.9%。
餐廳的銷售稅假期拉低了餐飲價格總體水平。12月的住房價格增速相比11月有所放緩。另一方面，汽油價格在12月有所上升。
核心通脹指標在當月也有所回落。
另一份報告顯示，11月的零售銷售停滯不前。然而，初步估計顯示12月的銷售額增長了1.6%。
通脹仍然接近加拿大央行（“BoC”）的2%目標。受關稅擔憂影響，加拿大經濟前景略顯不穩。BoC似乎準備在1月的會議上再次降息。

唐納德·特朗普總統開始第二任期
特朗普總統上週正式宣誓就職並迅速實施多項政策變更。
他希望使美國成為人工智慧（“AI”）領域的全球領導者。他促成了三家大型科技公司之間的聯合投資計劃，旨在推動AI基礎設施和技術開發。
隨著他上任，市場密切關注他對關稅的相關言論，關稅預計將對全球貿易和經濟活動產生影響。
特朗普總統要求其團隊在4月1日前完成對美國主要貿易關係的研究。然而，他暗示有意對來自加拿大和墨西哥的商品徵收25%的關稅，並表示正在考慮對中國徵收10%的關稅。
關稅預計將對加拿大經濟產生負面影響。多份報告顯示，來自加拿大最大貿易夥伴的廣泛關稅可能會拖累加拿大國內生產總值的增長。如果必要，加拿大政府已準備好進行報復性關稅。

日本央行加息
日本央行（“BoJ”）將其政策利率上調25個基點至0.50%，為2008年以來的最高水平。
高企的通脹和薪資增長推動了BoJ在過去一年內的第三次加息。
日本12月的年通脹率從11月的2.9%升至3.6%，為2023年1月以來的最高水平。
1月的商業活動有所改善，由更強勁的服務業驅動。然而，關鍵的製造業部門仍舊乏力，連續第七個月萎縮。
BoJ表示，如果經濟如預期發展，計劃繼續加息。

歐洲商業活動轉正
歐洲商業活動在12月五個月來首次實現增長。
漢堡商業銀行（“HCOB”）歐元區綜合採購經理指數的預估值從12月的49.6上升至1月的50.2。
儘管1月的製造業仍在萎縮，但顯示出一些改善跡象。歐洲最大經濟體德國的製造業因需求和產出疲軟再次萎縮。另一方面，1月的服務業活動有所增長，但增速略低於12月。
本週歐洲將公佈幾項重要經濟公告，包括歐洲央行（“ECB”）的利率決定。市場預期ECB將再次降息以支持經濟。
美國關稅的威脅對歐洲經濟前景造成壓力。關稅可能會損害貿易活動，從而阻礙整體增長。

01/20/2025

每週評論 – 截至1月17日的週報

截至1月17日，全球股票市場上升。數據顯示，2025年各國央行可能進一步降息。美國12月的核心通膨壓力減弱。在加拿大，由金融板塊領漲的S&P/TSX綜合指數上漲。美國股市本週也有所上升。加拿大和美國的10年期政府債券收益率下降。石油和黃金價格上漲。

加拿大房屋銷售同比上升
加拿大12月的現房銷售下降了5.8%，這是自8月以來的首次月度下降。然而，銷售同比增長了19.2%，顯示在抵押貸款利率降低的背景下，房地產市場活動有所回升。
加拿大房地產協會預計，今年春天銷售量將進一步增加。儘管這對加拿大的整體經濟前景應是利好的，但隨著美國潛在的關稅問題逼近，市場不確定性加劇。
加拿大總理與省長會面，討論如果美國對加拿大進口商品徵收關稅，將採取的報復措施。已經確定了一份美國商品的初步關稅清單。

美國核心通膨放緩，提高美聯儲降息希望
美國12月的年通膨率從前一個月的2.7%上升至2.9%，符合預期。這是自7月以來美國通膨最快的增速，因為能源價格的下降速度放緩。食品和交通價格在12月有所上升。
儘管總體通膨上升，核心通膨放緩，從11月的3.3%降至12月的3.2%，也符合預期。
同時，12月的零售銷售上升了0.4%，這是連續第四次增長。儘管美國聯邦儲備委員會（“美聯儲”）預計在2025年初將保持利率不變，但核心通膨的下降可能為美聯儲在今年某個時候降息提供空間。

中國經濟增長加速
中國經濟在2024年第四季度增長了5.4%，高於市場預期的5.0%。
這是自2023年第二季度以來最快的增長速度，得益於旨在促進經濟活動的政府刺激措施。
12月的零售銷售和工業生產均有所增長，推動了經濟增長。
貿易活動在本季度也促進了增長。
中國2024年的增長基本符合政府目標。然而，鑑於美國可能的關稅，前景充滿不確定性。

英國增長疲軟
英國11月的國內生產總值增長了0.1%，低於經濟學家預期的0.2%。
然而，這仍然是從前兩個月的0.1%收縮中略有回升。
加上仍然高企的通膨，滯脹的擔憂依然存在。英國12月的通膨率為2.5%，高於英格蘭銀行（“英央行”）的2%目標。
英國12月的零售銷售下降了0.3%，讓預期增長的經濟學家感到失望。這是過去四個月中第三次下降，因為緊縮的財務條件對英國家庭造成壓力。
滯脹的威脅已經推動債券收益率上升，英鎊下跌。英央行預計今年將繼續降息，但可能會因通膨壓力較大而放慢步伐。

01/13/2025

每週評論 – 截至1月10日的一週

全球股市在截至1月10日的一週內收跌。經濟數據顯示，美國聯邦儲備委員會（“美聯儲”）可能將下一次降息推遲到2025年晚些時候。S&P/TSX綜合指數下跌，主要受醫療保健板塊拖累。美國股市下跌。加拿大和美國10年期國債收益率上升。石油和黃金價格在本週有所上漲。

總理特魯多將辭職
加拿大總理賈斯廷·特魯多宣布，他將在新領袖確定後辭去自由黨領袖的職位。
特魯多在過去九年中擔任總理。一些黨內成員失去對他的信任，尤其是財政部長克里斯蒂亞·弗里蘭辭職後，要求他辭職的呼聲越來越高。
不確定性正在影響商業社會，加拿大可能需要應對來自美國的關稅。
加拿大的貿易赤字在11月縮小，出口和進口均達到多個月的高點。由於可能受到潛在關稅的影響，加拿大對美國的貿易出現了順差。
加拿大勞動力市場在12月有所改善，當月新增90,900個就業崗位，為2023年1月以來的最高水平。加拿大的失業率下降至6.7%。

美國勞動力市場持續新增就業
美國經濟在12月新增256,000個就業崗位，遠高於經濟學家預期的165,000個。這是自3月以來新增就業最多的一次。
美國的失業率從上月的4.2%降至12月的4.1%。
ADP報告顯示，美國私營企業在12月新增了122,000個就業崗位，低於上月的146,000個，為8月以來的最低增長水平。
11月的職位空缺增加了4.8%，達到810萬個，表明勞動力市場仍然相對緊張。
即便如此，美國的勞動力市場依然相對強勁。在這一消息發布後，市場將下一次美聯儲降息的預期推遲至10月。

投資者擔憂英國的停滯性通貨膨脹
上週，英國10年期國債收益率達到了2008年以來的最高水平。
對新政府支出和借款計劃的擔憂，以及來自美國的潛在關稅和高企的通脹壓力，影響了投資者情緒，導致英國國債大幅拋售。
英鎊也承壓，跌至自2023年以來對美元的最低水平。
對停滯性通貨膨脹的擔憂不斷增加。通脹有所上升，而經濟增長則表現疲軟。
這可能會讓英格蘭銀行（“英銀”）難以積極降息。收益率的急劇上升、經濟狀況疲弱以及英鎊的貶值降低了市場對英銀今年降息次數的預期。

歐洲價格壓力上升，中國價格壓力下降
一個經濟大國的通脹正在上升，而另一個經濟大國的通脹則在下降。
初步估算顯示，歐洲的年度通脹率從11月的2.2%上升至12月的2.4%。能源價格上漲，服務價格的增速也有所加快。
生產者價格也有所上升，11月上漲了1.6%，是自2022年以來的最大增幅。
雖然歐洲的價格壓力在上升，但中國的通縮擔憂正在加劇。儘管政府採取了刺激措施以促進需求，但中國的通脹率在12月降至0.1%。中國政府擔心通縮可能進一步阻礙經濟增長。
許多主要經濟體正在經歷不同的經濟條件，這使2025年全球經濟前景變得更加不明朗。

01/13/2025

Weekly commentary – For the week ended January 10

Global equity markets finished lower over the week ended January 10. Economic data pointed to the U.S. Federal Reserve Board (“Fed”) pushing back its next rate cut until later in 2025. The S&P/TSX Composite Index declined, dragged down by the Health Care sector. U.S. equities declined. Yields on 10-year government bonds in Canada and the U.S. increased. The price of oil and gold rose over the week.

Prime Minister Trudeau to step down

• Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced he would resign from his position as leader of the Liberal Party once a new leader is found.
• Trudeau has been Prime Minister over the past nine years. There have been calls for his resignation given a loss of confidence from some party members, which came to a head with the resignation of Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland.
• The uncertainty is weighing on the business community as Canada may have to grapple with tariffs from the U.S.
• Canada’s trade deficit narrowed in November. Both exports and imports reached multi-month highs. Canada’s economy ran a trade surplus with the U.S. as purchasers may be getting ahead of potential tariffs.
• Canada’s labour market showed some signs of improving in December. The economy added 90,900 jobs over the month, the highest amount since January 2023. Canada’s unemployment rate edged lower to 6.7%.

U.S. labour market continues to add jobs

• The U.S. economy added 256,000 jobs in December, well above the 165,000 economists had expected. This marked the highest number of job additions since March.
• The U.S. unemployment rate dropped to 4.1% in December from 4.2% in the previous month.
• ADP reported that private businesses in the U.S. added 122,000 jobs in December, down from the 146,000 jobs in the previous month, and the lowest number of additions since August.
• Job openings increased by 4.8% to 8.1 million in November, suggesting the labour market remains relatively tight.
• Still, the U.S. labour market remains relatively robust. At the time of the announcement, markets pushed back expectations of another Fed rate cut to October.

Investors concerned about U.K. stagflation

• The U.K. 10-year Gilt yield reached its highest level since 2008 last week.
• Concerns over the new government’s spending and borrowing plans, along with the potential tariffs from the U.S. and elevated inflationary pressures, weighed on investor sentiment. This resulted in a steep sell-off of U.K. government bonds.
• The pound also came under pressure, falling to its lowest level against the U.S. dollar since 2023.
• Concerns about stagflation are growing. Inflation has ticked higher, while economic growth has been tepid.
• This could keep the Bank of England (“BoE”) from aggressively lowering rates. The sharp increase in yields, soft economic conditions and decline of the pound have lowered markets’ expectations for the number of BoE rate cuts this year.

Price pressures rising in Europe, falling in China

• Inflation is picking up in one economic superpower, while falling in another.
• A flash estimate showed Europe’s annual inflation rate rose to 2.4% in December from 2.2% in the previous month. Energy prices increased, while services prices rose at a faster pace.
• Producer prices also increased, rising by 1.6% in November, the largest increase since 2022.
• While price pressures are rising in Europe, concerns over deflation are climbing in China. China’s inflation rate fell to 0.1% in December, despite increased spending measures by the government to boost demand. China’s government is concerned that deflation could provide another hindrance for economic growth.
• Many major economies are experiencing different economic conditions, which has clouded the outlook for the global economy in 2025.

01/07/2025

每週評論 – 截至1月3日的一週

全球股市在截至1月3日的一週中大致持平。投資者對美國聯邦儲備委員會（“美聯儲”）可能放緩降息速度的預期影響了市場情緒。S&P/TSX綜合指數上漲，能源板塊領漲；美國股市下跌。加拿大和美國的10年期國債收益率本週下降。油價和金價均收高。

加拿大製造業活動改善
S&P Global加拿大製造業採購經理人指數（PMI）從11月的52.0升至12月的52.2，達到自2023年2月以來的最高水平。
這標誌著製造業活動連續第四個月擴張，此前曾連續16個月收縮。
12月的產出和就業有所增長，推動了整體改善。
新訂單也在12月擴展，得益於來自美國的更多訂單。
美國買家可能在潛在關稅的影響下提前下單，但高關稅可能會對加拿大製造業的前景構成壓力，限制近期改善的持續性。

美國房屋銷售再次上升
美國11月待完成房屋銷售增長2.2%，這是連續第四個月增長，超過經濟學家預測的0.8%。
全國房地產經紀人協會評論稱，買家正在適應更高的抵押貸款利率。
由於市場普遍預期美聯儲將逐步降息，抵押貸款利率在最近幾個月有所上升。
美國抵押貸款銀行協會報告稱，截至12月27日的一週內，30年固定利率抵押貸款利率升至6.97%，為2024年7月以來的最高水平。
儘管預計美聯儲降息速度會放緩，但任何抵押貸款利率的下降都將成為潛在買家的利好消息，有助於增加市場活動。

中國商業活動加速
得益於政府和中國人民銀行的刺激措施，中國12月商業活動繼續擴張。
國家統計局綜合採購經理人指數從11月的50.8升至12月的52.2。
由於服務業的改善，商業活動以2024年3月以來最快的速度增長。
12月製造業活動也有所擴張，但增速略低於11月。
商業活動的增加顯示出中國經濟的某種穩定。更多的刺激措施可能進一步推動經濟活動增長。

歐洲貸款增長加快
11月歐洲銀行對家庭的貸款同比增長0.9%，為自2023年8月以來的最快年度增長。
同時，11月歐洲企業貸款同比增長1.0%。
隨著歐洲央行（“ECB”）降低利率，貸款增長正在加速。
數據顯示，更低的借貸成本正在促進家庭和企業的貸款活動。
ECB希望此舉能夠改善受到緊縮金融條件影響的消費和企業支出。支出的增加可能有助於提振歐洲的經濟增長。

12/17/2024

Weekly commentary – For the week ended December 13

Global equity markets finished largely flat over the week ended December 13. Investors digested mixed economic data and how it might impact the final rate decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve Board (“Fed”) on December 18. In Canada, the S&P/TSX Composite Index finished lower, dragged down by the Communication Services sector. U.S. equities also declined. Yields on 10-year government bonds in Canada and the U.S. increased. The price of oil and gold rose over the week.

BoC makes another 50-bps rate cut

* In a move widely expected by economists, the Bank of Canada (“BoC”) lowered its benchmark overnight interest rate by 50 basis points (“bps”) to 3.25%.

* This marked the BoC’s fifth straight rate cut, and its second straight at 50 bps, with inflation coming down and economic growth stalling.

* Canada’s central bank believes its aggressive rate cuts will help improve consumer strength, which should be good for the overall economy and help stabilize prices.

* The BoC noted that changes in Canada’s immigration policy and the threat of tariffs could weigh on economic conditions.

* The BoC’s key interest rate now stands within its neutral range. While further rate cuts are expected, the BoC said it might be more gradual and make each decision based on prevailing economic data.

Price pressures in the U.S. accelerater

* Consumer price pressures in the U.S. picked up in November, with the annual inflation rate rising to 2.7% from 2.6% in the previous month. November’s rate matched expectations.

* Energy costs fell at a slower pace than the previous month. The growth in food and shelter prices remained elevated in November.

* The annual core inflation rate held steady at 3.3% in November.

* Despite rising in November, inflation has trended downward over the past year. The Fed is expected to lower interest rates again on December 18.

* Resilient economic conditions point to a Fed that will likely take a gradual approach to cutting interest rates.

ECB lowers rates for a fourth time in 2024

* The European Central Bank (“ECB”) cut its three policy interest rates by 25 bps at its December meeting.

* This marks the fourth rate cut from the ECB this year in response to slowing inflation and relatively soft economic conditions.

* The ECB’s main refinancing rate now stands at 3.15%.

* At the meeting, the ECB downgraded its outlook for European growth to 0.7% in 2024 and 1.1% in 2025. The ECB expects inflation to slow to 2.1% next year.

* Europe’s central bank didn’t give specific direction on the path of interest rates, but it did note it would adjust policy based on incoming data. The ECB is expected to continue lowering interest rates in 2025.

China’s exports boosted before potential tariffs

* Exports from China rose by 6.7% year-over-year in November, adding to the 12.7% increase posted in October.

* Exports to the U.S. increased over the month. U.S. companies may be frontloading purchases from China ahead of the potential for increased tariffs from the U.S. on Chinese goods.

* Conversely, imports from China declined by 3.9% year-over-year in November, suggesting still-muted domestic demand.

* Given the economic landscape and the potential for tariffs to hinder growth, China’s government announced it would take a proactive approach to helping its economy through fiscal and monetary policy.

* The People’s Bank of China lowered key interest rates on several occasions in 2024, with more expected next year to increase liquidity and boost consumer and business activity."

12/17/2024

每週評論
截至12月13日的一週

全球股市在截至12月13日的一週大致持平。投資者消化了混合的經濟數據，並評估這些數據對美國聯邦儲備委員會12月18日最終利率決策的影響。在加拿大，標普/多倫多證券交易所綜合指數（S&P/TSX Composite Index）因通信服務板塊表現疲弱而下跌。美國股市也出現下滑。加拿大和美國的10年期國債收益率均上升。石油和黃金價格在本週有所上漲。

加拿大央行再次降息50個基點
根據經濟學家的廣泛預期，加拿大央行將基準隔夜利率下調50個基點至3.25%。

這是加拿大央行連續第五次降息，也是第二次連續降息50個基點。通脹下降且經濟增長停滯是此次降息的主要原因。

加拿大央行認為，其積極的降息行動將有助於提升消費者的購買力，這對整體經濟有利，並有助於穩定物價。

加拿大央行指出，加拿大的移民政策變化以及關稅威脅可能會對經濟條件造成壓力。

目前，加拿大央行的關鍵利率已進入中性區間。雖然市場預期未來還會進一步降息，但加拿大央行表示，可能採取更為漸進的方式，並根據當前的經濟數據作出每次決定。

美國物價壓力加速
11月，美國的消費者物價壓力有所加劇，年度通脹率從前一月的2.6%上升至2.7%，符合市場預期。

能源成本的下降速度低於上月，食品和住房價格的增長在11月仍然處於高位。

11月的核心年度通脹率穩定在3.3%。

儘管11月通脹有所上升，但過去一年中通脹總體呈下降趨勢。市場普遍預計美聯儲將在12月18日再次降息。

穩健的經濟條件表明，美聯儲可能會採取漸進的方式來進行降息。

歐洲央行2024年第四次降息
歐洲央行在12月會議上將三大政策利率下調25個基點。

這是ECB今年第四次降息，旨在應對通脹放緩和經濟狀況疲弱。

歐洲央行的主要再融資利率現降至3.15%。

在會議上，ECB將2024年歐洲的經濟增長預期下調至0.7%，2025年增長預期為1.1%。ECB預計明年通脹率將降至2.1%。

歐洲央行沒有對利率走向提供具體指引，但表示將根據即將公佈的數據調整政策。市場預計ECB將在2025年繼續降息。

中國出口因潛在關稅增加而受提振
11月中國出口同比增長6.7%，延續了10月12.7%的增長勢頭。

對美國的出口當月有所增加。美國企業可能因擔心未來美國對中國商品加徵關稅，而提前採購中國商品。

與此同時，中國的進口同比下降3.9%，顯示出國內需求依然疲弱。

考慮到經濟形勢以及關稅可能對增長造成的阻礙，中國政府宣布將通過財政和貨幣政策採取積極措施來支持經濟。

中國人民銀行在2024年多次下調關鍵利率，預計明年將進一步降息，以增加流動性並促進消費和商業活動。

12/09/2024

每週評論——截至 12 月 6 日的一週

全球股市在截至 12 月 6 日的一週內走高。在本月主要央行公佈政策前，市場情緒相對樂觀。S&P/TSX 綜合指數在資訊科技板塊的帶動下上漲。美國股市也在本週錄得漲幅。加拿大和美國 10 年期國債收益率下降。油價和金價本週收低。石油輸出國組織（OPEC）宣布將其增產計劃推遲至 2025 年 4 月。

加拿大 11 月新增就業崗位
11 月，加拿大經濟新增了 50,500 個就業崗位，大幅超出經濟學家預測的 25,000 個。
就業增長集中在全職崗位，而兼職崗位數量在本月下降。
這導致加拿大的失業率升至 6.8%，為 2021 年以來的最高水平。
加拿大勞動力市場的放緩仍在持續，這一直是加拿大央行（BoC）的關注點。BoC 將於 12 月 11 日舉行下一次會議，目前預計將降息 50 個基點。

美國失業率小幅上升
11 月，美國經濟新增 227,000 個就業崗位，遠高於上月因罷工和兩場主要颶風影響而僅新增的 36,000 個崗位。
11 月美國失業率上升至 4.2%。
ADP 報告顯示，11 月美國私營企業新增了 146,000 個就業崗位，低於上月新增的 184,000 個。
10 月份的職位空缺較上月有所增加，顯示勞動力需求仍然相對強勁。
經歷了夏季的回落後，美國勞動力市場顯示出相對強勢的跡象。這可能限制美聯儲在下次會議上僅降息 25 個基點。

中國製造業活動加速
中國政府最近支持工業活動的措施似乎開始產生效果。11 月中國製造業活動有所回升。
財新中國製造業採購經理指數（PMI）從上月的 50.3 升至 11 月的 51.5，標誌著該行業連續第二個月擴張，且擴張速度為 2024 年 6 月以來最快。
該行業受益於強勁的外部需求。出口訂單以 2023 年 2 月以來最快的速度增長。
中國政府採取了一系列政策行動來支持製造業。初步成效相對積極。然而，潛在的關稅增加和中國房地產市場持續低迷仍對經濟前景構成壓力。

歐洲零售銷售下滑
10 月歐洲零售銷售下降了 0.5%，這是四個月來的首次下滑，也是自 2023 年 8 月以來的最大降幅，主要原因是非食品產品銷售的下降。
儘管需求在 10 月回落，但勞動力市場仍相對穩健。歐洲的失業率在 10 月保持在創紀錄的 6.3%不變。
第三季度歐洲經濟最終的第三次估算顯示，經濟增長率為 0.4%，高於上一季度的 0.2%。
歐洲經濟仍受到緊縮金融條件的壓力。為此，歐洲央行似乎將在 12 月 12 日再次降息。

12/09/2024

Weekly commentary – For the week ended December 6

Global equity markets moved higher over the week ended December 6. Sentiment was relatively bullish ahead of key central bank announcements this month. The S∓P/TSX Composite Index advanced, led by the Information Technology sector. U.S. equities also posted a gain over the week. Yields on 10-year government bonds in Canada and the U.S. declined. The price of oil and gold finished lower. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries announced they were going to delay their production increases until April 2025.

Canada’s economy adds jobs in November

* The Canadian economy added 50,500 jobs in November, which topped the 25,000 job additions economists had estimated.

* Job growth was concentrated in the full-time sector, while part-time jobs declined over the month.

* This has weighed on Canada’s unemployment rate, which moved higher to 6.8% in November, the highest level since 2021.

* The slowdown in Canada’s labour market persists, which has been a concern for the Bank of Canada (“BoC”). The BoC holds its next meeting on December 11, where it is currently expected to cut interest rates by 50 basis points.

U.S. unemployment rate ticks higher

* The U.S. economy added 227,000 jobs in November. This was well above the 36,000 in the previous month, which came amid strikes and two major hurricanes.

* The U.S. unemployment rate moved higher to 4.2% in November.

* ADP reported that private businesses in the U.S. added 146,000 jobs in November, which was down from the 184,000 job additions in the previous month.

* In October, job openings increased over the previous month, suggesting demand for labour remains relatively robust.

* After pulling back over the summer months, the U.S. labour market has shown signs of relative strength. This could limit the U.S. Federal Reserve Board to a 25-basis-point rate cut at its next meeting.

Manufacturing activity in China accelerates

* Recent measures by China’s government to support industrial activity appear to be helping. China’s manufacturing sector activity picked up in November.

* The Caixin China General Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index rose to 51.5 in November from 50.3 in the previous month. This marked the sector’s second consecutive expansion and fastest since June 2024.

* The sector benefited from strong foreign demand. Export orders increased at their fastest pace since February 2023.

* China’s government has undertaken policy actions to help support China’s manufacturing sector. Early returns are relatively positive. However, the threat of increased tariffs and ongoing weakness in China’s property market weigh on the economic outlook.

European retail sales pull back

* For the first time in four months, retail sales declined in October, falling by 0.5%.

* This was the largest decline since August 2023, largely in response to a drop in sales for non-food products.

* While demand pulled back in October, the labour market remained relatively strong. Europe’s unemployment rate was unchanged at a record low of 6.3% in October.

* A third and final estimate confirmed that Europe’s economy grew by 0.4% over the third quarter of 2024, up from the 0.2% increase in the previous quarter.

* Europe’s economy continues to struggle under the weight of tight financial conditions. In response, the European Central Bank seems poised to lower interest rates again on December 12.

12/04/2024

Weekly commentary – For the week ended November 29

Global equity markets finished higher over the week. It was a short week for U.S. equity and fixed income markets because of the Thanksgiving holiday. Investors weighed the potential impact from central bank rate cuts and tariffs on global economic activity. The S&P/TSX Composite Index advanced to a new record high, led by the Information Technology sector. U.S. equities finished higher. Yields on 10-year government bonds in Canada and the U.S. declined. The price of oil and gold fell over the week.

Canada’s growth slows in Q3

* Canada’s economy grew at a meagre pace in the third quarter of 2024, expanding by 1.0%, annualized. Third-quarter growth was the slowest since the fourth quarter of 2023.
* Household and government spending drove growth over the quarter. As the Bank of Canada (“BoC”) began lowering interest rates, spending started to pick up, helping growth.
* Real estate market activity also expanded over the quarter, a positive signal for a troubled area of Canada’s economy. The Canadian Real Estate Association expects real estate activity to pick up next year.
* Conversely, a fall in net exports and business investment weighed on growth.
* The BoC is expected to lower interest rates at its December meeting. The data shows the economy still needs some support.

U.S. PCE picks up as expected in October

* The U.S. personal consumption expenditure price index (“PCE”) rose by 2.3% year-over-year in October, accelerating from the 2.1% increase in September and matching economists’ expectations.
* This marked the first increase in the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s (“Fed”) preferred inflation gauge in three months.
* Core PCE also picked up in October, rising to 2.8%.
* Adding to upward pressure was a relatively strong consumer. Personal spending rose by 0.4% over the month of October, benefiting in part due to a 0.6% rise in personal income.
* This was the last PCE data before the Fed’s final meeting of 2024. The Fed is likely to cut interest rates again in December but forego another jumbo size rate cut of 50 basis points, as it did in September.

European inflation moves higher

* A flash estimate showed Europe’s inflation rate was 2.3% in November, matching estimates, and up from the 2.0% rate in October.
* This marked the highest rate of inflation in Europe since August 2024 as energy prices fell less than the previous month.
* The price growth of food slowed over the month, which could provide a small bit of relief for European consumers.
Core inflation was unchanged at 2.7% in November, which was below the 2.8% expected by economists.
* The data is unlikely to take the European Central Bank (“ECB”) from its path of lowering interest rates. The increase in inflation was expected. The ECB makes its last interest rate announcement of 2024 on December 12, where it is expected to cut rates again.

China’s industrial profits decline

* Over the January to October period in 2024, industrial profits in China dropped by 4.3% compared to the same period in 2023.
* The decline was sharper than the 3.5% drop in the January to September period.
* State-owned companies drove the decline. Among industries, profits fell sharply in the minerals and chemicals industries.
* China’s industrial sector has been hindered by high input prices and relatively soft demand, both domestically and abroad, due in part to tight financial conditions.
* With potential tariffs on the way, the business environment may continue to be a challenging one for industrial companies in China.

12/04/2024

每週評論 – 截至11月29日的一週
全球市場表現
全球股市本週收高。由於感恩節假期，美國股票和固定收益市場的交易時間較短。投資者權衡央行降息及關稅對全球經濟活動的潛在影響。加拿大S&P/TSX綜合指數創下新高，主要由資訊科技板塊領漲。美國股市也收高。同時，加拿大和美國10年期政府債券收益率均下跌。石油和黃金價格在本週下滑。

加拿大第三季度經濟增長放緩
2024年第三季度，加拿大經濟僅以年化1.0%的速度增長，是自2023年第四季度以來的最慢增長。

增長動力：家庭和政府支出是推動經濟增長的主要因素。隨著加拿大央行（BoC）開始降息，消費支出有所回升，助力經濟增長。
正面信號：房地產市場活動在本季度有所擴張，對於加拿大經濟中較疲弱的領域來說是積極信號。加拿大房地產協會預測，明年房地產活動將進一步回升。
挑戰因素：淨出口和商業投資的下降對經濟增長形成了拖累。
由於經濟數據顯示仍需支持，加拿大央行預計將在12月會議上再次降息。

美國10月PCE通脹如預期回升
美國個人消費支出價格指數（PCE）在10月同比上升2.3%，高於9月的2.1%，符合經濟學家的預期。

核心通脹：剔除食品和能源的核心PCE在10月上升至2.8%。
消費者支出：得益於個人收入上升0.6%，10月個人支出增長了0.4%。
聯邦儲備展望：這是美國聯邦儲備委員會（Fed）2024年最後一次會議前的最後一份PCE數據。雖然預計12月將再次降息，但幅度可能縮小至25個基點，而非9月的50個基點大幅降息。
歐洲通脹進一步上升
初步估算顯示，歐洲11月通脹率為2.3%，與預期一致，高於10月的2.0%。

能源價格：能源價格下降速度放緩是推動通脹上升的主要原因。
食品價格：食品價格的漲幅有所放緩，給歐洲消費者帶來些許緩解。
核心通脹：11月核心通脹率維持在2.7%，略低於經濟學家預期的2.8%。
這一數據不太可能改變歐洲央行（ECB）降息的計劃，因為此次通脹上升已在預期之中。ECB將於12月12日公布2024年最後一次利率決議，預計將再次降息。

中國工業利潤下降
2024年1月至10月，中國工業利潤同比下降4.3%，降幅高於1月至9月的3.5%。

國有企業：國有企業是利潤下降的主要推動因素。
行業困境：礦業和化工行業的利潤降幅尤為顯著。
挑戰環境：由於投入成本高企及國內外需求疲弱（部分原因是全球金融環境緊縮），中國工業部門面臨壓力。
隨著潛在關稅的到來，中國工業企業的經營環境可能仍將充滿挑戰。

11/25/2024

Weekly commentary – For the week ended November 22

Global equity markets moved higher over the week ended November 22. Investors continued to push stocks higher amid hopes the global economy is steadying, with several central banks expected to keep lowering interest rates. In Canada, the S&P/TSX Composite Index advanced, led by the Materials sector. U.S. equities also gained over the week. Yields on 10-year government bonds in Canada moved higher, while those in the U.S. declined. Oil and gold prices increased over the week.

Canada’s inflation rate rises above expectations

Canada’s annual inflation rate accelerated in October, rising to 2.0% from 1.6% in the previous month. Economists were expecting an inflation rate of 1.9%.
October’s higher rate was driven by energy prices falling at a slower pace than September. This was in part due to relatively low energy prices at this time last year.
The increase was relatively broad-based. Measures of core inflation, which are closely tracked by the Bank of Canada (“BoC”), also increased in October.
Spending appears to be picking up, with retail sales rising for a third straight month in September, increasing by 0.4%. Statistics Canada estimated that retail sales increased again in October, rising by 0.7%.
Amid higher-than-expected inflation, investors pared back bets on another jumbo rate cut from the BoC. Canada’s central bank seems likely to cut rates by 25 basis points at its December meeting.

Signs point to a pick-up in the U.S. real estate market

Sales of existing homes in the U.S. surged higher by 3.4% to 3.96 million in October. October’s growth was the largest since February 2024.
While the closings took place in October, many of the signed contracts were completed in the preceding couple of months, when mortgage rates were lower.
Over the past month, mortgage rates have climbed higher. The Mortgage Bankers Association (“MBA”) reported that the rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage increased to 6.90% over the week ended November 15 from 6.86% in the previous week.
Despite the increase in mortgage rates, the MBA reported that mortgage applications rose by 1.7% over the same week, the second straight weekly increase.
With the number of homes for sale on the rise, demand expected to pick up amid relatively stronger economic conditions and the U.S. Federal Reserve Board expected to lower rates, albeit gradually, the U.S. real estate market may be preparing to rebound.

U.K. inflationary pressures accelerate

The U.K.’s annual inflation rate was 2.3% in October, up from 1.7% in September and above the 2.2% economists expected. This was the highest rate of annual inflation since April 2024.
The costs of household services accelerated in October, particularly gas and electricity. The growth in services sector prices also picked up.
The core inflation rate increased to 3.3% in October from 3.2% in the previous month.
The Bank of England (“BoE”) was expecting inflation to pick up in the short term, in large part due to the spending plans of the new government.
The BoE is expected to keep lowering interest rates, but with inflation still posing a risk to the economy, may skip the rate cutting at its December meeting.

Germany’s economy posts small expansion

Europe’s largest economy, Germany, posted a small expansion over the third quarter of 2023, rebounding from a second-quarter contraction.
A flash estimate showed Germany’s economy expanded by 0.1% over the third quarter, which was just below economists’ expectations of a 0.2% increase.
Germany’s economy benefited from strong household consumption. However, a decline in exports weighed on growth.
Demand for manufactured goods from Germany has been relatively soft amid tight financial conditions around the world. In response, the manufacturing sector, a critical component of the German economy, has struggled over the past couple of years.
Overall European business activity contracted in November with a drop in new orders weighing on both manufacturing and services sector activity.

Jason Liu - Investment Advisor

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