Aaron Pedlar - Sterling Mutuals

04/10/2026

Feeling pain at the pump? ⛽️

With the surge in oil costs over the last month consumers are definitely feeling it when filling up their vehicle.

With that said, its always good to put some perspective into the current landscape...

Measuring Energy's Share of Consumer Spending: The chart illustrates the percentage of total personal consumption expenditures allocated to energy goods and services, including gasoline, fuel oil, natural gas, and electricity, since 1970. It breaks down how much of the consumer's wallet has historically gone toward energy costs over time.

A Look at the Data: As of February, 2026, energy's share of total consumer spending sits at 3.61%, with the 3-year average at 3.82%. This is a significant decline from the early 1980s peak of nearly 10%.

Investment Implications: The chart is a reminder that, while oil price spikes have grabbed headlines, energy has represented a shrinking share of consumer budgets over the past several decades.

04/03/2026

Interesting Chart Measuring The Mag 7's Contribution to YTD Returns

This chart illustrates how each of the Magnificent 7 stocks has individually contributed to the S&P 500's year-to-date point change. It breaks down the index's move from its starting value at the beginning of 2026 to its current level, isolating the impact of each Mag 7 name alongside the remaining 493 stocks.

A Look at the Data: The chart breaks down the S&P 500's year-to-date point change by isolating the contribution of each Mag 7 stock and the remaining 493 names. This allows investors to see which stocks have had the largest impact, positive or negative, on the index's overall movement so far this year.

Concentration Works Both Ways: When a small number of stocks represent an outsized share of an index, their performance can have a disproportionate impact on overall returns. This chart highlights how concentration within the S&P 500 can work for or against investors depending on how those names are performing at any given time.

03/27/2026

Drawdowns Have Historically Been a Normal Part of Investing: This chart highlights periods where the S&P 500 has experienced drawdowns of 5% or more and 20% or more since 1950. The data shows that drawdowns have historically occurred with regularity, suggesting they are a common feature of equity markets.

The Long-Term Trend Has Historically Been Upward: Despite the frequency of drawdowns shown on the chart, the S&P 500 has historically trended higher over time. Periods of decline have historically been followed by periods of recovery, though the timing and magnitude have varied.

Investment Implications: The chart is a reminder that, while volatility has been a constant feature of markets historically, the S&P 500 has still remained resilient over time. Understanding the historical frequency of drawdowns may help investors and their advisors frame expectations and maintain perspective during periods of uncertainty. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

03/13/2026

Question: How the S&P 500 has historically performed in the year following a major spike in oil prices?

The chart tracks S&P 500 1-year forward returns after every instance where crude oil surged 20% or more over a 2-day period, dating back to 1986.

There have been 8 unique instances. In 7 of 8 cases, the S&P 500 was higher one year later, with an average forward return of roughly 24%.

This chart serves as a useful reminder for investors that a spike in oil prices hasn't historically meant bad news for stocks over the following year (on average).

03/12/2026

Markets have been rocky lately, and investors are feeling it.

Today's chart is a good one to serve as a reminder.

It shows the total number of drawdowns in the S&P 500 since 1950, broken out by size. There have been 72 drawdowns of 5% or more, 26 of 10% or more, and 11 of 20% or more. Even 30%+ drops have happened 6 times.

The big takeaway: drawdowns are not rare. They are a regular feature of long-term investing. The small ones happen constantly, and even the painful ones show up more often than most clients realize.

Consider reminding yourself that volatility isn't something that should be dealt with as unexpected rather something completely normal.

Stay focused on the long-term.

03/10/2026

Yesterday, March 9th, marked the anniversary of the 2009 financial crisis market low, when fear dominated headlines and the S&P 500 had fallen below 700 after dropping 56% from its 2007 peak. At the time, many strategists warned the index could fall another 27%, yet that moment ultimately marked the bottom. Today, the S&P 500 trades roughly ten times higher, highlighting how investors often extrapolate current trends too far into the future. Since that low, the market has risen about 895% (excluding dividends), rewarding those who stayed invested despite numerous challenges along the way, including two bear markets, several near-bear declines, and a dozen pullbacks of 10% or more. The lesson is clear: investing rarely feels easy in real time—only in hindsight.

03/09/2026

On Friday, the S&P 500 fell 1.3%, its 5th daily decline so far this year with a loss above 1%. Expect to see many more of these days in the coming weeks/months - the average year since 1928 has 29 large declines. This is the price of admission.

03/04/2026

Interesting visual showing the impact of the blocked Strait of Hormuz and what countries are most impact with the lack of oil passing through right now.

03/02/2026

Over the weekend, tensions in the Middle East escalated. Today's chart helps put the potential market impact into perspective.

It shows the S&P 500's 1-year forward returns following major geopolitical crises since the Korean War.

The average 1-year return after all events is +14.2%. Yes, 9/11 and the Ukraine invasion both produced negative 1-year returns (-16.8% and -7.4%). But events like COVID-19 (+43.7%), the Iraq Invasion (+26.7%), and the Cuban Missile Crisis (+27.8%) show just how powerfully markets can recover once the dust settles.

The message for investors is simple: geopolitical events feel alarming in the moment, but history shows they rarely derail long-term investors who stay the course.

02/20/2026

Remember 5 Years Ago when out of the blue a new craze emerged as Meme Stocks suddenly surged?

The chart illustrates the cumulative price performance of an equally-weighted basket of select stocks commonly referred to as meme stocks, including GameStop, AMC Entertainment, Teladoc Health, DocuSign, Peloton Interactive, and Roku, since 2021.

Since 2021, the equally-weighted basket has returned -4.3% on a cumulative basis.

For Investment Context: This data highlights how market sentiment can influence short-term price movements, as reflected in the sharp rise and subsequent decline of meme stocks during 2021.

02/18/2026

Thus far in 2026 theres has been a striking difference between the S&P 493 vs. May 7

12/24/2025