09/30/2022
We are now hearing the probability of a global recession is as high as 98%, so the initial expectation is this would likely lead to further declines in the market. However, history shows us this may not be the case, and the probability of recession being this high could be more of a signal to buy than it is to sell.
I came across the chart below in a BNN article (https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/everything-selloff-on-wall-street-deepens-on-98-recession-odds-1.1824019), and made some very interesting observations after studying it. Here is what I noticed:
-in the past 35 years, there have been 10 other times where the probability of a recession was at or above 90%
-of those 10 times, only once did the market go through a prolonged and significant decline after the recession probability peaked (2001)
-most of the time, the market had already declined somewhat before recession probability peaked, and the market was generally higher six months to a year after recession probability peaked
-on two occasions, recession probability peaking above 90% almost perfectly timed the bottom of a market downturn (2002 and 2008)
-almost every time the probability of a recession rose above 90%, the global economy was either already in a recession (the shaded areas), or near the end of it. This is likely because recessions are generally declared after they have already started.
We do not know what direction the markets will go over the next few months, but history suggests that we are already in a recession and that it is at least somewhat priced into the markets, and there is more potential upside than downside over the next 6-12 months from here.
Disclaimer: This information has been prepared by Dennis Rubeniuk, who is an Investment Advisor for iA Private Wealth Inc. Opinions expressed in this article are those of the Investment Advisor only and do not necessarily reflect those of iA Private Wealth Inc. iA Private Wealth Inc. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada.