28/02/2020
CORONAVIRUS: AN INVESTMENT UPDATE
The news this week that coronavirus has started to impact daily life in countries as wide-ranging as Italy and Iran, shows the scale of the task now facing global authorities as they race to keep a lid on it.
Two things in particular make it a tough ask – the speed with which the virus is spreading, and the unknowns that come with any new disease, especially its longevity.
That said, it is important for investors to stay focused on the bigger picture because in the long-term market context, this is not the first health crisis that financial markets have endured. As difficult as it may be, investors should not overreact to the often distressing, news headlines.
The recent spread of the virus outside of China has led to concerns that the full economic impact of the virus might have been underestimated. It is clear that global growth will be affected by these events in the near term and whilst various trials for a vaccine are underway, we are unlikely to see results before April.
The impact of the virus for financial markets is impossible to predict, and as always, it’s important for investors to avoid overreacting and to stay invested for their longer-term goals.
Given the good liquidity in markets, I believe there is support for a longer-term bounce-back, once current concerns have passed. This would be underpinned by the positive turn in economic activity that started in October 2019, well before the virus started. There is, of course, never any guarantee.