17/04/2026
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โพ US / Iran conflict drove oil prices higher, unsettling markets and shifting concern to inflation and growth risk.
โพ Bonds sold off sharply, as policy was expected to turn hawkish, while equity returns varied by region โ with energy exposure providing support in the UK.
โพ High uncertainty reinforces need for diversification, with oil prices and political decisions central to the outlook.
March was dominated by the outbreak of conflict in Iran, which caused significant market upheaval and brought an abrupt end to what had been a broadly positive start to the year. Rising geopolitical risk had already been a defining feature of the early months of 2026 โ first with the US intervention in Venezuela, and then with President Trump's posturing towards Greenland โ but the escalation in Iran swiftly eclipsed both to command global attention.
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Equity markets have been volatile throughout the quarter, responding to an unpredictable flow of news regarding the trajectory and potential escalation of the conflict. Whilst most markets have felt its effects, first-quarter returns have also been shaped by how individual markets were positioned heading into the crisis.
In the US, a softer start to the year somewhat obscures what has been a degree of relative resilience since the conflict began. Japanese equities delivered strong gains after a decisive election result provided a clear mandate for the continuation of economic reform. Within emerging markets, South Korea has been the standout performer, benefiting from growing appreciation of its role within the AI supply chain. Closer to home, UK equities have outperformed, supported by the market's heavyweight exposure to the energy sector, with the major oil companies buoyed by rising crude prices.
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Bond markets have faced a challenging reversal in 2026. Expectations of inflation returning to 2% targets have required meaningful upward revision in light of sharply rising oil prices, and central banks have responded with a notably hawkish tone โ moving swiftly to convince markets of their willingness to raise interest rates decisively. This has prompted a broad repricing across fixed income. Whilst the most pronounced volatility and yield rises have been concentrated at the shorter end of the yield curve, it is longer-dated bonds that have delivered the weakest total returns. The UK bond market has been the hardest hit, owing in part to the country's structural reliance on energy imports.
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Commodities delivered substantial returns in the quarter with the S&P Commodities Index up 40%. The energy component soared amid disruption to Middle East production and shipping. The conflict effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which flows 20% of global oil supply as well as a significant proportion of liquified natural gas (LNG) and other commodities such as fertilisers. Saudi Arabia was able to divert some oil supply via its East-West pipeline. There was some damage to energy infrastructure, including to Qatarโs Ras Laffan LNG facility.
Elsewhere, the agriculture, livestock and industrial metals components registered smaller positive returns. Precious metals also registered a positive return for the quarter but saw sharp declines in March. Those falls in March may have partly been due to profit taking after a strong run previously for both metals. Additionally, expectations of higher interest rates weighed on the attraction of gold and silver which offer no yield.
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As with any event that dominates market attention, the range of potential outcomes is wide and largely contingent on political decisions that are, by their nature, difficult to forecast. Scenarios span from a relatively swift de-escalation โ which would provide immediate relief to risk assets and take pressure off energy prices โ through to a prolonged conflict that continues to weigh on growth expectations and keeps central banks in a difficult position. The latter would present the more challenging environment to navigate: one in which policymakers face the unenviable task of responding to inflation driven by factors largely outside their influence, whilst simultaneously managing the risk of tipping economies into recession.
In the near term, oil prices are likely to remain the key variable for both inflation and markets. Beyond energy, however, the conflict has reinforced a broader reassessment of supply chain vulnerabilities, defence spending trajectories, and energy security โ themes that are likely to shape investment narratives well beyond the immediate volatility.
For our portfolios, this environment underscores the importance of genuine diversification โ not merely across geographies, but across asset classes, duration, and the type of risk being taken.
Source: AJ Bell and Schroders
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๐ www.woollacott-wm.co.uk