13/06/2022
UK hovering over the brink of a recession after economy shrinks again.
That’s the dire warning of a leading business group about the outlook for the country’s finances in the year ahead.
The CBI’s forecast came hours before official statistics confirmed the economy shrank again in April.
Office for National Statistics data revealed that gross domestic product fell by 0.3%, compared to a fall of 0.1% in March.
The impact of the winding down of the test and trace programme on the health sector and the hit to manufacturing by rising energy prices were the primary drags on growth, the ONS said.
The CBI stopped short of firmly predicting a recession but said the economy would be hovering just above the line and could easily slump over it.
It downgraded its growth outlook to 3.7% for this year, from 5.1% previously, and just 1% in 2023, from 3%.
The CBI said it believes inflation is expected to remain high into the autumn, rising to 8.7% in October, leading to a ‘historic squeeze’ in household incomes, which will hit consumer spending.
Tony Danker, CBI director general, said: ‘Let me be clear – we’re expecting the economy to be pretty much stagnant.
‘It won’t take much to tip us into a recession, and even if we don’t, it will feel like one for too many people.
‘Times are tough for businesses dealing with rising costs, and for people on lower incomes concerned about paying bills and putting food on the table.’
The business leader said politicians have been guilty of ‘weeks of politicking with the country standing on the brink of a summer of gridlock’ and called for the government to take further action.
The CBI called for measures including steps to alleviate labour and skills shortages.
Rain Newton-Smith, CBI chief economist, called the numbers ‘a tough set of statistics to stomach’.