26/03/2025
Spring Statement 2025 – Key Points
On 26 March 2025, the Chancellor delivered her Spring Statement against a backdrop of ongoing global uncertainty, high borrowing costs, and a desire to restore fiscal stability. We’ve summarised below the key announcements likely to be of most interest to our clients.
Economic Overview
Inflation: According to the ONS, inflation fell to 2.8% in February, although the OBR now expects it to average 3.2% this year, before falling to 2.1% in 2026 and stabilising around 2% thereafter.
Growth Forecast: The OBR has cut the growth forecast for 2025 from 2% to 1%, citing economic pressures and global instability.
Government Borrowing: Revised figures show a higher short-term deficit, but a surplus of £9.9bn is forecast for 2029-30—restoring the Chancellor’s fiscal headroom.
No new tax rises were announced. Income Tax, VAT, and employee NICs remain unchanged from the March Budget.
Employer NICs were increased in the March Budget.
A further £1 billion will be raised through new anti-tax avoidance and evasion measures, including investment in HMRC resources and technology.
It remains to be seen how wider civil service cuts—including a proposed 10% reduction and the abolition of NHS England—will impact HMRC services.
Public Spending and Welfare
Welfare Reform: The health element of Universal Credit will be cut by 50% for new claimants and then frozen. The overall welfare budget is expected to be cut by £4.8bn.
The standard allowance for Universal Credit will rise from £92 to £106 per week by 2029-30.
Day-to-day government spending will still grow, but more slowly—1.2% a year above inflation instead of 1.3% as previously planned.
Defence and Innovation
Defence spending will rise by £2.2bn next year, reaching 2.5% of GDP by 2027 with an ambition to increase this to 3%.
Notably, 10% of the equipment budget will be spent on AI, drones, and advanced manufacturing.
A £400m innovation fund has been established to support defence tech startups and speed up procurement.
Planning and Growth Initiatives
The government will protect capital spending, increasing it by £2bn annually.
New planning reforms are forecast by the OBR to increase GDP by 0.2% by 2029/30 and 0.4% within 10 years, the largest forecasted GDP uplift the OBR has ever made from a single policy.
Additional growth measures include support for a third runway at Heathrow and pension reforms to boost investment.