26/09/2026
"The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has revised Cambodia’s growth forecast to 3.9% in 2026, down from 4.1% projected in July, reflecting weaker-than-expected activity in tourism and related services. Growth is expected to strengthen to 4.7% in 2027, supported by resilient manufacturing, export diversification, and continued foreign direct investment."
[News Release] ADB Revises Cambodia’s 2026 Growth Forecast Amid Weak Tourism Activity
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has revised Cambodia’s growth forecast to 3.9% in 2026, down from 4.1% projected in July, reflecting weaker-than-expected activity in tourism and related services. Growth is expected to strengthen to 4.7% in 2027, supported by resilient manufacturing, export diversification, and continued foreign direct investment.
“Cambodia’s economy continues to demonstrate resilience,” said ADB Country Director for Cambodia Yasmin Siddiqi. “Strong manufacturing exports and buoyant investment inflows are helping offset tourism sector challenges. Continued efforts to diversify the economy, enhance competitiveness, support vulnerable households, and strengthen resilience will be important for sustaining inclusive growth.”
According to the Asian Development Outlook (ADO) September 2026 published recently by ADB, inflation forecasts have been revised upward, reflecting higher global oil prices and rising import costs. Inflation rose from 2.6% year on year in February to 7.2% in May before easing to 5.5% in July. ADB forecasts inflation at 4.7% in 2026 and 2.8% in 2027, as fuel tax relief measures and a broadly stable riel help moderate price pressures.
Fiscal policy is expected to remain supportive with infrastructure, human capital, and social protection investments bolstering economic activity through the Comprehensive Intervention Program. The current account deficit is expected to widen in 2026 due to higher import costs and weaker tourism revenue. However, strong direct foreign investment is expected to continue supporting international reserves.
Industry remains the main driver of growth. Non-garment manufactured exports expanded by 38.4% year on year in the first half of 2026, reflecting increasing diversification into higher-value products, including electrical components, vehicle parts, tires, and wooden goods. Garment exports rose 6.3% to $8.0 billion, while construction and real estate remained subdued.
Growth in services is expected to be weaker than previously expected as tourism activity declined. International visitor arrivals fell 47.9% year on year to 1.8 million in the first half of 2026, or just over half of pre-pandemic levels. Ongoing geopolitical tensions and the closure of the Cambodia–Thailand land border weighed on tourism-related activity, including transport, hospitality, and trade. Agriculture is expected to make a modest contribution to growth, supported by demand for exports of cashews, cassava, and milled rice. Risks to the outlook remain tilted to the downside and included potential El Niño-related weather disruptions in late 2026 and early 2027.
ADB is a leading multilateral development bank supporting sustainable, inclusive, and resilient growth across Asia and the Pacific. Working with its members and partners to solve complex challenges together, ADB harnesses innovative financial tools and strategic partnerships to transform lives, build quality infrastructure, and safeguard our planet. Founded in 1966, ADB is owned by 69 members—50 from the region.
