13/02/2020
The latest updates released by Aberdeen research institute on Covid-19. The executive summary as below:
· The Covid-19 outbreak has surpassed SARS in terms of people infected; 40,500 cases in mainland China have been confirmed so far, compared to only 5,300 during SARS. It is hard to know when infections will peak (expectations range mostly from 2nd half of February to early March), but the rate of new infections has slowed recently.
· SARS provides a useful benchmark for the potential effect on the economy, but there are reasons why the near-term effect will be larger this time. The number of cases is much higher, services are a larger share of the economy, and more restrictions have been put in place to stem the spread of the virus. Chinese New Year will also amplify the effects.
· There are a wide range of estimates as to how big and persistent the shock will be. We think that Chinese Q1 ’20 q/q growth should be slightly negative (down from +1.5% q/q in Q4 to perhaps -0.5% q/q in Q1).
· The National Bureau of Statistics will likely report a less dramatic slowdown (say to +0.5% q/q), inevitably raising questions about data reliability. We will therefore be drawing primarily on our in-house China Activity Indicator to benchmark the effects; our updated forecasts will be released early next week.
· Regardless of the size of the Q1 shock the most likely outcome is for activity to be largely caught up by Q4. The recent modest easing in monetary policy, plus more aggressive fiscal support should help GDP to return to the previous trend.
· The shock will reverberate around APAC, even assuming the virus is mostly contained within China. Disruptions to tourism & travel, trade & manufacturing should be the main transmission channels. Hong Kong and Thailand stand out as most exposed to less tourism.
· Supply chains disruptions are affecting some firms but we do not expect the macroeconomic significance to be large unless the outbreak gets much worse. In the longer term, however, some firms may reconsider supply chain risks, adding to de-globalisation pressures.