21/07/2026
Follow the control, not the money.
In Australia, more than 75% of home loans now come through an adviser.
New Zealand is heading the same way. The banks can see it.
Here’s a pattern worth naming.
Trail has all but disappeared from the New Zealand market; only a small minority of lenders still pay it, and the direction of travel is one way.
It isn’t happening in isolation. Commercial lending income has been trimmed. Clients are increasingly refixing inside an app, with no adviser involved. And at least one major lender has been visibly stepping back from the adviser channel - broker-introduced flow sliding, third-party remuneration reduced.
Any one of those is a cost decision. Together, they look more like a direction of travel.
And you can see the logic. In Australia, over 75% of mortgages now originate through advisers. In the US it’s over 90%. New Zealand is around 60% and climbing up from roughly 30% five years ago.
The third-party channel is winning the customer relationship. A bank that doesn’t hold that relationship has less say over pricing, cross-sell and the refix.
Seen that way, this was never really a debate about the cost of a 15-basis-point trail. It’s a question about who holds the client relationship - the bank, or the adviser sitting across the table.
Our honest read is that the remaining trail won’t last. That’s our opinion, not a fact - but we’d plan for it.
Either way, advisers should build for a world where trail isn’t coming back.