Ungaro & Co Financial Services

14/10/2025

It’s been a pleasure, but Ungaro&Co bids farewell to Facebook!

Follow me on the Everyday Investor Podcast page.

https://www.facebook.com/share/1BTZcGjcqT/?mibextid=wwXIfr

Redefining how we invest for tomorrow.

02/10/2025

Why mortgages WILL drop, and house prices WILL rise.

I survived a 10.75% mortgage rate in 2008, but then I spotted the pattern that persists today. Each interest rate cycle brings lower highs and lower lows. Rates still cycle, but the long-term trend is down.

In hindsight, 2025 might be the year many felt ‘this time it’s different.’ Higher-for-longer rates forced prices lower, and further. Many had to quit, or sell at a loss.

But mortgage rates HAVE TO fall more. Why? Because decent pay rises can’t match even modest house price inflation. Higher prices mean bigger mortgages, and those only work if rates drop.

Lower rates mean more money in pockets to spend, more power for first home buyers, and better cash flow for investors. More credit creation means NZ will be climbing out of recession. Good news!

Here’s the question: If the pattern's clear, why is housing already booming? What would need to change for that to be true?

26/09/2025

Of all the Yiddish-inflected quips I frame Bitcoin with, I use this low-risk hedging metaphor the most.

"Bitcoin is the ultimate schmuck insurance"

I heard the term first from Chamath Palihapitiya (channeling Carl Icahn?), who then then said "I've told my friends that it's entirely rational to allocate one percent of your assets to Bitcoin - as I have.

That was in 2013. I wonder if his schmuck insurance paid out?

Then I thought, I wonder if life insurance could payout in bitcoin?!

I spoke with , founder of Meanwhile, and we spoke about just that.

Enjoy the chat:

Zach Townsend is the CEO and co-founder of Meanwhile, the world's first Bitcoin-denominated life insurance company. If you want to see what the future of fin...

23/09/2025

Should you be in a 'balanced' KiwiSaver fund in your 40's?

Often young/middle-aged people invest conservatively, just like older people should, and those nearing retirement invest like they have nothing to lose.

I'm still meeting people that seem to think their fund type (defensive, balanced, aggressive etc) needs to be aligned to their personality type.

Why is it so hard to 'act our age' with investing?

When it comes to money, your age can determine whether risk is your best friend or your worst enemy, investment strategies that work brilliantly at 25 can de...

20/09/2025

Will NZ's wealth tax increase?

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is pretty much already collecting a 1-3% wealth-tax through the monetary system, targeting anyone holding cash.

Of course, you can offset the wealth-tax by investing in property and shares, because these rise at a pace which is faster than the inflation rate.

So long as central banks have positive inflation mandates, wealth will leak out of those who can't invest.

The RBNZ is causing a large amount of our investment ‘returns’...but at the same time, some of this comes from those who can't invest.

So looking at the US now, will the Federal Reserve raise their target benchmarks? Will the RBNZ follow suit?

Sounds like a hike in wealth-tax, but for non-investors only.

I've just been sitting on a log, thinking...

19/09/2025

New Zealand’s deep GDP contraction demands lower rates NOW!

Watching U.S. Fed Chair Powell cut rates as “risk management” this week shows what timely action looks like.

It's been painful watching how the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is consistently asleep at the wheel this year.

Too many commentators (possibly blinded by political bias?) didn't call the RBNZ out on this sooner.

This is, ironically, great news for property owners looking for higher prices - it's only a matter of time now.

We WILL see a lower OCR, but only because parts of the economy (and many households) have been slaughtered by policymakers stuck looking in the rearview mirror.

The figures painted a gloomier picture than most were predicting

16/09/2025

There’s a 95% chance the U.S Federal Reserve will chop 0.25% off their funds funds rate (like OCR) this Thursday (NZ time).

When returns on parked cash drop, money flows into stocks.

If they cut rates too fast, inflation could roar back. But with rising unemployment, and the risk that AI is starting to impact jobs, the party's just getting started.

No guarantees on anything, of course, but it looks like the tariff-driven sell-off from earlier this year won’t be the way 2025 goes down.

https://reut.rs/3JV8Df5

14/09/2025

Commercial property has to be one of the most overlooked assets for everyday investors.

In many ways, it's the same as residential property investment, but with some key differences: A strong lease can add value, and the tenants cover almost all the expenses, being just two examples.

With interest rates easing, now's a great time to learn more about it...so I caught up with Jack Revill and Carl Burling recently on the podcast to discuss:

https://bit.ly/4poGWv9

14/09/2025

One TRILLION dollars.

That's one massive pay package proposed for Elon Musk.

Seems insane, but shareholders appear optimistic in his ability to 6x the company from here. Tesla shares traded up over 7% last Friday.

There's more to the story, of course. Tesla needs to make 20 million cars (10x from here), release 1 million robotaxis into the wild, and deploy 1 million humanoid robots. Hey, if anyone can do it, I suppose he can!?

Is he worth $1 trillion, though?!

https://cnb.cx/4meG7lO

12/09/2025

Picking mortgage rates can be a fools game.

With that in mind, allow me to play the fool who sees the future:

- 1-2 year mortgage rates will be in the 3%-3.5% range by next mid-year. Why? The government can't fix the economy, and the Reserve Bank of NZ didn't drop rates far enough, fast enough.

- 4-5 year mortgage rates will be HIGHER than they are now. I wouldn't be surprised to see 6%+, as longer term inflation outlook remains unclear.

- The RBNZ will play a much larger role in our households, and in our economy. Why? Most New Zealanders will likely continue to opt for 1-2 year fixed-rate mortgages, leading to a quicker and more immediate impact from interest rate changes.

Remember, re-fixing your mortgage rate isn't about speculation, it's about risk management (don't take fools like me too seriously!).

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER

10/09/2025

Fees, inflation, and tax.

3 forces, constantly at work, separating you from your wealth.

'Fiscal' AND 'monetary' taxation might exacerbate the decline of the West. Are you prepared?

Great chat recently with John Kenel on the latest podcast.

https://bit.ly/42mbxj0

09/09/2025

Are you an 'age appropriate' investor?

Taking risks when you’re young, and playing it safer as you age can be a smart way to get wealth (and stay wealthy).

Only problem is, hardly anyone follows this advice.

Originally published in Herald - August 2025

https://ungaro.co.nz/the-age-appropriate-investor/