19/01/2023
Optimism, Pessimism, and Irrationality đŻ
In the Words of Nick Murray âOptimism is the only rational assessmentâ.
Pessimism is a kind of illness. Look at the things weâve lived through.
health, education, disease, poverty, hunger, and major wars.
Not only are all these exponentially improved compared to historic levels, but they are also continuing to improve exponentially.
The financial news will fill you with panic and fosters a culture of market timing and selection.
Ignore it completely.
It plays into a very human trait- irrationality.
This is where volatility comes from. We get over-optimistic and over-pessimistic.
In the short term, capital follows human irrationality. It outruns itself in good times and in bad times.
But in the long run, Capital is rational in a not-necessarily-rational world.
Equities are self-healing because equities are companies and companies have to innovate, grow and create value or theyâll fail.
Irrationality is the free Market operating how it should.
If an investor is allowed to focus on volatility, they miss the bigger picture, because the volatility occurring around whatever excesses of optimism and pessimism that are around at the time will obscure the realization that it's happening in a constantly rising trendline, and has done so for 200 years.
All the good investors are concentrated on this trend line and all of the failed investors, sooner or later, fixated on one of the irrational excesses and let that run their portfolio,
to their eternal detriment.