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29/10/2026

30 Oct 2026.......Market Updates

Wall Street fell, despite lower bond yields and upbeat economic growth data and a neutral US PCE Price Index last night.

Market is questioning Warsh's credibility as he announced a Fed rate hold on Wednesday.

Warsh admitted that US economic growth is strong, inflation is too high and employment data is still healthy.

Hence, the market is begging the question, "Why was interest rates not raised?"

Is he returning Trump a favour before the US Midterms?

NASDAQ fell 1.5% as Alphabet lost 12%, after missing earnings and posting negative cash flow of $9.07 billion.

Intel and Amazon shares also slid lower on weaker than consensus AI earnings and outlook.

However, the S&P firm up a tad and closed @ 7,720 range 7,691-7,731) as US10Y and the DXY fell.

The DXY and the US10Y closed below 102.00 and 5% respectively.

The DXY closed @ 101.92 (range 101.86-102.44). The US10Y closed @ 4.93% (range 4.92%-5.02%).

The XAU/USD fell and hit 4005.00 low, despite a lower DXY and US10Y.

This was predicated mainly on higher oil prices and a potential December US rate hike plus rotation out of AI stocks to defensive stocks.

Brent and WTI Futures closed higher @ 111.56 (previous 110.2) and @ 102.86 (previous 102.08).

The USD/JPY traded inside a 157.50-158.00 range, waiting for the BOJ Interest Rates Decision (likely to hold rates) during the Far East session today.

Lagarde announced that she will step down as ECB Governor yesterday and will continue as caretaker, till Feb 2027 to nominate the next ECB Governor.

She cited her decision to quit due to her inability to remain neutral to world's affairs, and hence better to step down earlier for a smooth transition.

We have come to the last trading day of October and there are lots off "mega-events" looming in the month of November.

The events are :

1. US Midterms Elections (next Tuesday)

2. US/Israel's joint attack plans on Iran after the US Midterms?

3. The Mecca Pact (Iran/Saudi/Turkey) outcome

4. Ukraine/Russia/US trilateral ceasefire talk after 10 Nov 2026

5. Trump to meet Xi at the APAC Summit (17-18 Nov) in Shenzhen.

These events will garner a lot of pre-event volatilities, due to the year-end Hedge Funds "window-dressing" to end 2026!

Whatever investment assets that are over valued will be rotated to undervalue investment assets to lock in profits and to stay invested for 2027.

Hence, November and December could be the months that will offer more directional clarity over the 2026 global conflicts into 2027.

The main catalyst for whatever had happen since 2025 and 2026 is none other than Donald Trump!

Technically, the DXY and the US10Y is expected to continue lower while the XAU/USD is expected to search for a base between 3970.00-4000.00.

Hence current levels are low risk for a BUY towards 4600.00 (revised end 2026 target?)

Japan's CPI just reported a 2.8% (2.7% previous).

Let's see if the BOJ will hike rates later @ 11.30 Singapore time

28/10/2026

29 Oct 2026......Market Updates

The RBNZ surprised market by holdings rates, while the FED held rates as expected yesterday.

Wall Street traded higher together with Brent and WT Futures.

Both the DXY and the US10Y traded a tad firmer, undecided over its next directional bias.

Netanyahu is set to remain in power (caretaker role) despite losing the house majority.

That means he is still able to command the Iran war until election take splace again in 2027.

With 86% of votes tallied yesterday, Netanyahu is projected to win 53 seats out of 120 seats, well ahead of the 48 seats for rival Gadi Eisenkot.

In the US more than 36 million people have voted early.

At this early stage, the Democrats is leading the Republicans, but the Republicans' votes usually surge in on election day itself.

That surge could still wrestle back the early Democrats' lead.

US consumers look resilient despite higher prices for gas.

Warsh in his press conference said that he is confident that inflation will get down in a timely fashion amidst market skepticism.

Alphabet (Google) shares fell 9% after its revenue missed earnings expectations.

Microsoft rose 4% after growth in its software giant's Azure cloud business helped its earnings report.

The S&P closed a tad higher @ 7,744 (range 7,721-7,758).

The DXY and US10Y traded flat and closed @ 102.15 (range 102.05-102.48) and @ 5.02% (range 4.98%-5.04%) respectively.

WTI and Brent Futures closed higher @ 102.08 (previous 99.97) and @ 110.72 (previous 109.77) respectively.

The USD/JPY surged above 158.00 (high 158.35) going into the US Interest Rates announcement but eased off below 158.00 and closing @ 157.75 after the announcement.

The XAU managed to stay above 4000.00 (low 4025.00) and closed @ 4062.00.

Technically, the USD/JPY has been a wild card for the past 2 months, sticking around the 156.50-158.50 range, waiting for a clear directional bias.

It has been a technically frustrating period as multiple top set--ups, all failed to deliver the technical crash.

The JPY continues to weaken because of the interest rates differential between the US and Japan.

The XAU/USD exhibited 3 days of basing price actions and is currently validating a spike towards 4150.00 first.

Hence, the XAU/USD is still a BUY-ON-DIPS.

There are no US data today, as the focus will shift to the ECB Interest Rates Decision (likely hold rates), followed by tomorrow BOJ Interest Rates Decision (likely hold rates).

We are now exactly 7 days away from the US Midterms election.

Trump's popularity remains at a low of 32% and it will be interesting to see if he can pull off a similar feat like Netanyahu and retain his command to see the next phase of the Iran war.

Let's see.

27/10/2026

28 Oct 2026...........Market Updates

The US ADP Employment Change and US Durable Goods data registered weaker than consensus numbers, while the CB Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales registered better consensus numbers last night.

Oil prices also continue to dip as the WTI closed @ 99.97 (previous 101.36) and Brent closed @ 109.77 (previous 110.23) last night.

Investors continued to ride the AI wave as the market now perceives 90% that the Fed will hold rates today.

However, Warsh is expected to deliver a hawkish press statement thereafter.

Besides the Fed, the RBNZ is expected to announce a 25 bp rate hike during the Far East session today.

Besides the Fed, players are watching closely for the earnings report from Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet (Google) after the US stock market closes today.

These three companies plan to spend $600 billion combine this year and that could be fatal, as investors had little appetite for spending and shrinking cash flow.

Interestingly, Anthropic's IPO is now generating a lot of interest despite its recent price fall.

Anthropic shows it has a cash pile of $131.7 billion, the highest cash holding for any US company that has filed for IPO listing in the US.

On top of that, Anthropic also has a plan to control AI, long after its leaders depart.

The S&P closed a tad firmer @ 7,722 (range 7,677-7,738).

The DXY traded higher with the S&P and closed @ 102.37 (range 102.044-102.39).

The US10Y closed @ 4.98% (range 4.95%-5.00%).

The USD/JPY traded higher and hit 157.97 (last-line-of-defense) while the XAU/USD pulled away from 4000.00 lows to closed above 4450.00 @ 4062.00 last night.

The Israel election look likely to replace Netanyahu but the full and final results is expected by 30 Oct but will only be published a week after the election (Nov 4).

Hence, we may get to see both Trump and Netanyahu election results announced on the same day.

Trump is losing his grip on the red states as higher oil price (higher than Biden's term) saw Texas, a state that the Democrats has not won since the Great Depression, changing from red to blue.

The recent Brazil election saw Lula taking over from the ruling party, also wrestled away Trump's ambitions to "influence" Latin America, as Lula is pro-China.

Technically, the XAU/USD may have establish a base @ 3975.00.

This will be confirmed if we get to see 4150.00 by the end of the week.

Will then look to BUY on dips to re-establish the 5485.00 target, but the ETA will be in 2017.

Likewise, the USD/JPY is now testing its technical resistance 158.00 and is expected to reverse direction for 153.00 first, before gunning for 145.00 (end 2026).

Let's see.

26/10/2026

27 Oct 2026........Market Updates

Just when AI stocks were showing fatigue last week, news of Anthropic's IPO lifted the NASDA and S&P, as oil prices eased off from its high.

Tesla jumped 5% leaving behind the Magnificent 7, with AAPL, GOOGL and META ending lower.

SpaceX said it had struck a $40 billion debt deal with Apollo Global Management for chip funding.

Meanwhile, Trump's approval rating rose from a low of 31% to 32% as heavy campaigning by both Democrats and Republicans gathered pace, with only 7 days to the US Midterms Elections.

Israel will have its election today, as Netanyahu faces his "judgment day".

Meanwhile, Canada and the US are working on a deal to ease US tariffs on Canadian steel and autos in a bid to repair strained relations.

Persistent Houthis attacks on key producers, Saudi Arabia and maritime shipping and detection by the CIA of plans to blow up the middle east underwater data cable, are keeping investors and policy makers on their toes.

Meanwhile, Russia and Ukraine has gone into a ceasefire pending the outcome of a trilateral peace talk in November.

The XAU/USD managed to stay above 4000.00 yesterday, on easing oil prices and market sentiment, settling for a US Fed rate hold tomorrow.

The USD/JPY rallied in sync with the US10Y and DXY from 156.65 to a high of 157.55.

WTI and Brent Futures eased lower and closed @ 101.32 (previous 103.44) and @ 110.23 (previous 117.38) respectively.

The S&P closed a tad higher @ 7,676 (range 7,641-7,702).

The US10Y closed near 5% @ 4.97% (range 4.95%--5.0 %).

The DXY traded above 102.00 and closed @ 102.03 (range 101.63-102.04).

Technically, the USD/JPY is expected to find resistance @ 157.80 before heading lower towards its first pit-stop @ 153.00.

The XAU/USD is expected to stay above 4000.00 for 4150.00 as its first target this week.

Today, we are looking at the scheduled release of the US ADP Employment Change, Durable Goods, CB Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales data .

The action will start tomorrow with interest rates announcements from the RBNZ and FED, followed by the ECB (Thursday) and (BOJ Friday).

Only the RBNZ is expected to hike rates with the rest holding rates unchanged.

Israel's election outcome will be key to whether the XAU/USD can rally to hit 4150.00 for now.

News report on the US Midterms Campaigns will be monitored closely as we head into the US Midterms next Thursday (03 Nov).

Let's see.

25/10/2026

26 Oct 2026.....Market Updates

Last Friday was key Flash PMI day.

Australia released flat, Japan and the EU slightly weaker and the US and the UK slightly stronger numbers.

Wall Street fell across all sectors due to rising fears of US/Iran war flaring up and US oil prices topping $100 a barrel.

Oil prices spike on reports of fresh Houthis attacks on Saudi Arabia and oil tankers causing the need to evacuate personnel.

For the last 2 weeks, investors have been actively rotating from tech and to safer stocks, due to rising concerns, over how AI's high capex cost will be funded.

WTI Crude Futures closed higher @ 103.44 (previous 99.47) while Brent Futures closed higher @ 117.38 (previous 112.92, last high 126.00).

The S&P drifted lower and closed @ 7,623 (range 7,611-7,659).

Both the DXY and the US10Y traded lower and closed @ 10.775 range 101.61-101.85) and @ 4.8% ((range 4.95%-5.00%) respectively.

The XAU/USD hit a low off 3975.33, before closing below 4000.00 @ 3996.00.

The USD/JPY rebounded from a low of 156.07, hit high of 157.16 before closing @ 156.85.

Here are the headlines over the weekend:

1. Trump lifted some Canada tariffs ahead of midterms to shore up his losing popularity

2. Trump is still undecided whether to attack Iran, or let Iran "die a slow death" after the elections, claiming that the US has got its oil supply despite the closure of the Hormuz Straits.

3. CIA intelligence warns the US that Iran is in its advance planning stage, to kill US personnel in the Middle East

4. Iran was reported to have detailed plans to hit undersea cables in the Gulf should a war with the US resumes

5. Russia and Ukraine has agreed on a ceasefire to hold peace talks in November.

With 9 days away from the US Midterms elections (3 Nov) and 1 day from Israel Election (27 Oct) and zero data release on Monday, the market will likely use today to trim positions.

The week ahead is heavy with central banks scheduled to announce their Interest Rates Decisions.

The RBNZ (Wed and likely to hike) and the Fed, ECB (Thu) and the BOJ (Fri) all likely to hold rates.

Meanwhile Iran and the US is also hoping to have a ceasefire agreement before the Nov 3, but the bar to achieving that is quite high.

Technically, the USD/JPY is likely to slide lower towards 153.00 with a cap @ 157.50.

The XAU/USD may/may not rebound with 3975.00 as a base.

If it rebound, it is looking @ 4150.00.

If not, then we can possibly see 3880.00 as its next support.

Brace yourself for a volatile month end closing this week.

23/10/2026

23 Oct 2026...........Market Updates

Here is what had happened last night:

1. Flaws in PHP programming language which led to global hacking into the cybersecurity space, saw both corporate and governments scrambling as AI went rogue

2.Tesla shares fell 2% after Musk's capex cut, raising questions on how aggressively the company is prepared to fund Musk's ambitions in AI

3. Meta shares tanked 7%, after free cash flow turned negative, as the company raised its floor of expected capex spending

4. Moderna shares plunge 25%, after discovering data leakage from its developing cancer vaccine

5.NASDAQ dropped 2% as AI spending woes and higher oil prices spark a sell--off

6. Investors rotated away from stocks to US Treasuries as "safe haven", which saw the US10Y slipped below 5%

7. The US Treasury may now stop issuing US20Y bonds as the interest rates is too high to service

8. Oil hits 5-month high, as Houthis attacks stoke supply fears

9. US voters resist building of data centers as Trump faces resistance into the US Midterms Election

10. Putin says that future talks on settlement of the Ukraine war should focus on security guarantees for both countries and an overall security framework for Europe as well.

It was a wild night as the US Jobless Claims registered more claims , while the DXY, US10Y and the S&P all traded lower.

The S&P closed lower @ 7,663 (7,636-7,699).

The DXY closed lower @ 101.62 (range 101.46-101.88).

The US10Y closed lower @ 4.95% (range 4.93%-5.09%).

Bitcoin closed below $82,000 as investors retreated from risk assets.

The XAU/USD could not hold 4100.00 and closed lower @ 4029.00 (range 4020.92-4126.57).

The USD/JPY finally broke below 157.50 and hit a low of 156.58 (high 158.25).

It was a risk-off night, as the sudden SELL-OFF in AI counters on the PHP news, spooked players, who scrambled to the extent of rotating out from risk-assets to US10Y, causing yields to drop.

Meanwhile the Midterms are showing growing resistance to Trump's policies, as California is now proposing a one-time 5% wealth tax on billionaires to save the US economy from sliding further.

This will pressure the S&P, as billionaires' wealth in the US, is tied to valuations of the stocks they hold.

They borrow money from banks using their stocks as collateral!

Technically, the DXY and US10Y call for lower, has panned out as forecasted but not the technical call for the XAU/USD to hold above 4100.00 for a rally towards 5485.00 (end 2026).

The likely support for the XAU/USD now is 3880.00, unless it can retake 4160.00 today, with a sharp reversal spike (low probability).

The technical call for the USD/JPY to ht 145.00 (end 2026) is still valid but will look at 153.00 as a first pit-stop for now.

Today's focus will be on the Flash PMI data scheduled for released from Australia, Japan, the EU, UK and the US.

Let's see.

21/10/2026

22 Oct 2026......Market Updates

Here is what happened last night :

1. SpaceX share prices gapped higher after 3QTR revenue and profit topped Wall Street's estimates

2. Meta posted better than consensus earnings @ $64 billion (consensus $63.3 billion)

3. Tesla posted better than consensus earnings @ $28.05 billion (consensus $27.9 billion)

4. Coreweave stock down 29% in Oct while bond yields spikes as market confidence erodes

5. Ukraine's defiance saw drones strikes crippling Russia's diesel refinery (2nd biggest in the world)

6. Putin released American Stephen Hubbard and agreed to 3-way peace talk with Ukraine and the US after Witkoff meeting in Moscow

7. US orders diplomats to depart Saudi Arabia amid Houthis attacks

8. Iran said that indirect negotiations with the US continues.

The S&P notches a 3-day winning streak as the NASDAQ jumps 1% on the SpaceX and Tesla rally last night.

The S&P closed a tad higher @ 7,757 (range 7,710-7,770) last night.

The DXY and the US10Y traded a tad higher and closed @ 101.69 (range 101.64-101.83) and @ 5.12% (range 5.08%-5.16%) respectively.

The USD/JPY traded lower and closed @ 158.08 (range 157.84-158.39).

The XAU/USD traded a tad higher and closed @ 4141.00 range 4104.61-4142.62).

Technically, both technical structures for a big move are still intact and is expected to deliver the moves by the end of the week.

The USD/JPY is expected to break below 157.50 and head towards 153.00 while the XAU/USD is expected to break above 4200.00 and gun for 4385.00 next week.

It was reported that US voters going into the Midterms are frustrated with Trump on the following :

1. Confidence in the US economy sank

2. Long term mortgage rate jumped to 7.5% (highest in 3 years)

3. Soaring Diesel prices

4. Unemployment is going up

5. Trump's fixation on beautifying Washington and building a bigger ball room at the White House

6. The Iran War.

Trump's strategic redistricting gambit faltered, as Trump's unpopularity has wiped out most of those gains, leaving Republicans scrambling to defend districts that were "engineered-to-their-favour".

With only 13 days left to the Midterms Elections, it will be interesting to watch how Trump will pick up the pieces both internally and externally (Middle East and Ukraine space).

Only the US Jobless Claims are scheduled for release today.

The market will see the Flash PMI data being released for Australia, Japan, the UK, EU and the US tomorrow.

Meanwhile the DXY is still expected to trade lower against all currencies today.

Let's see.

20/10/2026

21 Oct 2026.....Market Updates

The PBOC left interest rates unchanged for 17th consecutive months yesterday.

The US ADP Employment Change registered a weaker number @ 18.50K (previous 24.80K) and both US Housing data registered weaker numbers last night.

SpaceX and Netflix earnings both beat Wall Street estimates but only SpaceX shares climbed 5% while Netflix shares tumbled after their late earnings release after market's close.

Netflix shares posted earnings that beat estimates, but its share price fell on revenue and advertising revenue guidance.

Oil prices eased from their day's high as both the US10Y and DXY eased lower from their highs last night.

The S&P drifted sideways while the NASDAQ rallied as AI demand lifted the NASDAQ from its recent low on the strong delivery of AI stocks.

Meta, and Tesla will be watched closely today and as they will announce their earnings after the US stock market close.

The S&P closed @ 7,712 (range 7,670-7,747) last night.

The DXY and the US10Y closed @ 101.71 (range 101.52101.95) and @ 5.11% (range 5.07%-5.13%) respectively.

The XAU/USD defied the lower oil prices, DXY and US10Y, by trading below 4150.00 (range 4111.49-4155.78) and closing @ 4125.00.

The XAU/USD is weighed down by next week's US Fed rate hike expectations. (due to elevated oil prices).

The USD/JPY strangely could not break below 157.50 and closed @ 158.15 (range 157.82-158.60).

Technically, the XAU/USD had fulfilled its drop into the BUY-ZONE (4100.00-4120.00) and the USD/JPY rallied to its SELL-ZONE (158.40-158.60) and both flinched away like clockwork.

That means today will be the day that they are both supposed to "explode" decisively in their projected trajectory (USD lower against both currencies).

Perhaps, the Far East stock markets might go risk-on, delayed reaction from SpaceX's better than consensus earnings.

That could start the dollar decline against all currencies.

Meanwhile on the geopolitical front, the US has resumed its Starlink Intel sharing with Ukraine as US envoys were dispatched to meet Zelensky and Putin in a bid to stop the war.

Iran told Pakistan that they will not resume talk to the US until the US honoured the 14-points ceasefire MOU signed on 14 June.

There are no US data scheduled for release today as Meta, Tesla and IBM earnings will be the key focus today.

The main event will be Friday's flash PMI release from Australia, Japan, the EU, UK and the US.

Let's see.

20/10/2026

20 Oct 2026......Market Updates

Here is what had happened last night:

1. China posted another record export boom, as it showed positive numbers including less Unemployment yesterday.

2. NASDAQ recovered 1% as AI trade makes a comeback ahead of today's SpaceX Earnings announcement

3. Putin proposed a 3-way meeting in Shenzhen with Trump and Xi to talk about how to end the Ukraine war during the 18-19 Nov APEC Summit

4. Saudi postpones investor conference as Houthis attacked and killed 58 at Yemen government training camp.

5.Trump's approval falls to record low of 31% in Reuters/Ipsos poll

6. Reports of Hegseth to be removed after the midterms?

The S&P traded sideways even though the NASDAQ recovered 1% and closed @ 7,690 (7,685-7,729).

Crude Futures and Brent Futures fell on news that Trump is buying diesel from Russia and closed @ 98.27 (previous 101.84) while Brent Futures closed flat @ 109.18 (previous 109.95).

The DXY and the US10Y traded higher and closed @ 101.97 (range 101.7102.07) and @ 5.14% (range 5.06%5.15%) respectively.

It was a data-void day yesterday, as China GDP growth registered 4.5% (target 5%) while Unemployment fell from 5.3% to 5.2%.

The strong number was due to Exports and not domestic consumption, which China is aiming for.

Earnings from SpaceX will be announced today right after Musk's successful showcased of his "Flying-Car".

China will be announcing is interest rates decision today.

The USD/JPY finally traded into its SELL-ONE (158.40-158.60) with a high of 158.55 last night.

The XAU/USD could not break above 4200.00 (high 4190.00) before hitting a low of 4136.00.

Technically, the USD/JPY is now ready to reverse trend and trade lower towards 145.00(end 2026) while the XAU/USD is likely to trade lower to its 4100.00-4120.00 BUY ONE for 5485.00 (end 2026).

These are big technical calls but not impossible.

The near future is filled with risk events and geopolitical risks.

Next week will see the Fed, ECB and BOJ announce their interest rates decisions.

Israel will have its election on 27 Oct, while the US will have its Midterms Elections on 3 Nov.

The Houthis are making good progress in recapturing the Red Sea, while Iran continues to terrorise oil shipping in the Straits of Hormuz unrestrained, due to Trump's self imposed counter attack until after the Midterms.

Let's see.

17/10/2026

19 Oct 2026.......Market Updates

The S&P fell last Friday, weighed down by a falling NASDAQ as concerns and scrutiny over AI companies ability to service debts, saw investors rotated out of the tech sector.

Iran's escalated attacks on ships in the Hormuz Straits, attacking 9 ships since last Monday, saw Brent and Crude Futures closing higher @ 109.95 (previous 105.69) and @ 101.84 (previous 97.59) respectively.

The S&P closed lower @ 7,659 (range 7,632-7,751).

The DXY and US10Y also closed lower @ 101.78 (101.58-101.99) and @ 5.07% (range 5.06%-5.13%) respectively.

The trigger was Coreweave (down 25% last week) .

Jansen Huang (Nvidia) spoke up for it but could not contain the negative sentiment.

Meanwhile, the US economy is facing 2 hot wars heating up just 16 days from the US Midterms elections.

The US Budget deficit swells to almost $2 trillion for fiscal 2026, up 12% in a single year.

Despite pouring $750 billion into the Senate races since Labour Day, Trump is losing grip from his voters.

Funded by Trump's megadonors, the effort has produced little "pro-Trump" results in the major Senate battlegrounds.

If anything, Republicans are now shifting campaign funds from offense to defense, as they fortify once-safe states, such as Texas, Kansas and Nebraska while retreating from North Carolina.

Trump now reverses his Russia sanctions that he had signed into law, citing national interest as rationale!

He now made deals to buy Russian diesel as a desperate measure to grip on to lost votes.

Meanwhile, Russia and Ukraine continued to launch attacks on each other, ignoring Trump's self announced Russia/Ukraine peace truce.

The XAU/USD hit a high of 4199.00 and closed @ 4161.00 (range 4147.05-4199.00).

The USD/JPY closed @ 158.02 (range 157.69-158.34).

Technically, the XAU/USD is expected to correct lower to its BUY-ZONE (4100.00-4120.00) over the first half of the week.

The USD/JPY is expected to correct higher towards its SELL-ZONE @ 158.40-158.60.

The week ahead has little directional data as it is a Fed "black-out" week.

Warsh has said nothing during his IMF Meeting in Bangkok about the direction of US interest rates.

China will announce its interest rates decision on Tuesday (hold) while Wednesday will see Meta,Tesla and IBM announce their earnings for 3QTR.

Focus will then be on the US Jobless Claims (Thu) followed by the Flash PMI (Fri) from Australia, Japan, the EU,UK and the US .

The week ahead may not be "quiet" because it is the recent trend that investors "self-spooked" and move the market irrationally on data-void days.

Hence, be mentally prepared as the market is expected to whip inside familiar range without any directional bias.

Let's see.

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