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Back Bay Financial Planning & Investments

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Back Bay Financial Planning & Investments

Fee-Only, Fiduciary, Retirement & Tax Planning Expertise on the Eastern Shore of Maryland & Delaware

05/28/2026

I've gotten a couple of questions about bonds lately. Yields have moved up, and when yields rise, the bonds you already own fall in price so a lot of folks see red on their statements and wonder what's happening. Not the same volatility you see in stocks, but some volatility nonetheless. The last couple of years of bond returns have been pretty darn good.

Here's the part that gets lost. Without writing a dissertation on it, I think of mid- and long-term rates as a rough proxy for expected inflation plus expected economic growth. Both have been pushed higher by structural forces, the enormous AI capex buildout and a federal government issuing a lot of debt, not by a one-off shock. Oil, as a result of our recent conflict, has nudged inflation slightly higher as well.

The silver lining is the chart below: a bond's starting yield has historically been one of the best guides to the return it delivers over the next decade. Higher yields today have historically been associated with higher returns going forward. It's the same idea across asset classes, when prices fall, future return expectations rise.

For retirees, that's genuinely good news. A bond sleeve that's actually paying you again does more of the heavy lifting, which means you lean on your stocks a little less for the income and stability your plan needs.

Past performance is of course not indicative of future results, and the chart is illustrative, not a specific forecast.

05/12/2026

Spent a few days in Leland, Michigan last week with a small group of RIA owners — no agenda other than working on our businesses together. It's a study group I've joined, and this was our annual time to get together in person.

I've always believed diverse perspectives sharpen me as both a practitioner and a business owner. I came away with great feedback on what we're building at Back Bay, and I like to think I gave some useful feedback in return.

One thing I've adjusted to as a new RIA owner: being a steward and fiduciary to clients isn't just about the planning and investing. It's about making sure the firm itself is built to serve them well for the long haul, a different kind of work you have to periodically step away for. Doing it on the heels of wrapping up our annual Spring reviews made for perfect timing.

And no, being out of state doesn't mean I started sleeping in. Early morning runs along Lake Leelanau were amazing. Cold air, cold water. Every morning, we jumped in to start the day. Wakes you right up.

05/02/2026

Yesterday I got to spend the morning judging the second annual Salisbury University financial planning competition.

Most of you know I teach as an adjunct for the Perdue School’s financial planning program and serve on its advisory board. So getting to watch these students present is personal for me. The preparation, the presentation, the depth of knowledge - it keeps getting better every year. The full academic and professional community support has been awesome.

The future of financial planning locally and across the country being developed here on the Eastern Shore is in good hands. I’m just glad to play a small part in it.

Congratulations to all the winners - well deserved!

04/27/2026

The market can feel confusing right now. Prices are up, headlines are noisy, and it's hard to know what to make of any of it.

The reality is over time, stock prices follow earnings. Not the news cycle, not the sentiment on social media, not whatever the talking heads said this morning. If businesses make more money, they're worth more. It really is that simple, even when the short-term noise makes it feel anything but.

This chart shows that relationship going back to 2000. Notice how the two lines tend to find each other, even after dramatic separations. Right now, 12-month forward earnings growth sits at +31.3%, one of the stronger readings in the past two decades.

Markets are forward-looking. They're already trying to price in what comes next. The question isn't what the headlines say today. It's what earnings look like six to twelve months from now.

Earnings season is underway, and so far the results are holding up. Markets are reflecting that, even with everything else going on.

04/21/2026

As if you needed another reason to anchor your portfolio in passive core holdings…

New research from Morgan Stanley looked back at 44 years of U.S. public companies. Out of every 100, only 18 survived as independent, publicly traded firms. 43 were absorbed through mergers. 39 were delisted — 37 of those for cause. 8 of every 10 aren't even investable tickers today!

Bessembinder's research points in the same direction, and the odds are even worse. The simple truth is most individual equity bets don't pay off. The math isn't close. A handful of mega-winners carry the entire market's return, and the odds of picking them in advance are not in your favor. It's why we expect premium returns for investing in equities. Most fail.

The first step in retirement investing isn't finding the next great stock. It's avoiding the mistakes that don't need to be made.

Passive core holdings aren't settling for less, it's maximizing your odd's of winning.

04/14/2026

A lot of people are worried that rising oil prices signal a recession. Historically, that concern is well-founded as most major oil shocks have coincided with economic downturns, and the relationship isn't just correlation, there's causation. So, will this spike in oil prices be different?

I think there are good reasons the market has held up surprisingly well despite elevated geopolitical uncertainty and an oil supply shock. It's why I like this chart: energy simply represents a smaller share of consumer spending today than it did a decade ago, currently sitting around 3.6% of total personal consumption, compared to nearly 10% at the peak in the early 1980s.

That decline isn't an accident. The U.S. economy has become structurally less energy-intensive over time, more fuel-efficient vehicles, better home energy efficiency, and a shift toward a services-driven economy that just doesn't run on oil the way manufacturing did. Layer on top of that the U.S. shale revolution, which transformed America into one of the world's largest oil producers, and you have a fundamentally different market than the one that drove the recessions of 1973 and 1979.

I'll be the first to admit that noone loves paying $4 at the pump. But the transmission mechanism, the drag on consumer spending that historically turned oil shocks into recessions is weaker today than it was in the past.

In investing, it's important to remember this is what progress looks like. It isn't always linear or pretty, but over time humans adapt, innovate, and build resilience into systems that were once more fragile. The oil market of 2025 reflects fifty years of hard lessons. It's worth remembering how dynamic human innovation is and how that affects markets over time.

04/08/2026

It's almost the end of tax season — and many retirees over 65 are learning they may have been pushed over an IRMAA threshold.

IRMAA (Income-Related Monthly Adjustment Amount) means higher Medicare Part B and Part D premiums, but with a two-year lag: income from 2024 affects your 2026 premiums. You'll get reminded of this one again in the future. 😊

If you actually received the income that triggered it, the higher premium is usually manageable — IRMAA surcharges are generally less than 3% of the income that caused them.

What I see practitioners and individuals miss is on phantom income — Roth conversions, capital gain distributions, or asset sales that push you over a threshold without a corresponding cash benefit. These are the "self-inflicted" mistakes, and that's where proactive tax planning matters most.

IRMAA technically isn't a tax — it's a reduction of a Medicare subsidy. But it's a real cost in retirement, and understanding it is essential to making smart decisions about conversions, gain harvesting, and income timing.

03/31/2026

Some of my favorite charts pair consumer fear with forward market returns. The inverse relationship is pretty consistent. It's the tale that's old as time.

I generally believe equity markets are efficient — but high-fear environments are one of the times I think timely rebalancing and re-visiting an allocation can add real value. Rebalancing timing luck is well-documented (just using a calendar based methodology), and when elevated VIX, depressed consumer sentiment, and cheaper valuations all line up together, that can be a meaningful signal to trigger action. Not saying we're there, but I think some of those indicators are becoming more directionally compelling.

It's a slightly more rigorous way of saying: be greedy when others are fearful.

Of course, this is not investment advice or a specific recommendation — just something worth thinking about when markets get choppy.

Address

39682 Sunrise Court #303
Bethany Beach, DE
19930

Opening Hours

Monday	9am - 4pm
Tuesday	9am - 4pm
Wednesday	9am - 4pm
Thursday	9am - 4pm
Friday	9am - 4pm

Website

http://www.backbayfp.com/

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