WinCap Financial

10/25/2026

Next week will be the busiest on the third-quarter earnings calendar with about one-third of S&P 500 companies set to release results.

Wednesday is the centerpiece: the Fed announces its decision, then Microsoft and Alphabet report. Amazon follows Thursday.

I’ll be watching cloud growth, AI spending and whether management can connect those enormous investment budgets to future earnings.

Thursday also brings the first estimate of third-quarter GDP and September’s PCE inflation report. Both arrive after the Fed’s decision, so the conversation about the next meeting could change quickly.

Friday’s Employment Cost Index adds another check on inflation pressure, while ExxonMobil and Chevron report.

10/18/2026

This week, earnings move from the banks to your driveway, your streaming account and your shopping cart.

Tuesday brings General Motors and Netflix. Wednesday puts Tesla and Meta in the spotlight. Watch pricing, profitability and how management explains the return on all that investment.

Procter & Gamble follows Thursday, then American Express on Friday. That gives us a useful consumer check, from everyday essentials to travel and entertainment.

10/16/2026

This week, we executed more than $50 million in bond trades at WinCap Financial as our views on the interest rate environment evolved.

Recent inflation data have made us more cautious about how quickly rates can move lower. That has implications for how much interest rate risk we want in portfolios.

We reduced duration from approximately 4.5 to 4 years. In plain English, that means roughly 11% less sensitivity to changes in yields, all else equal.

It’s a measured adjustment. Lower duration reduces the impact of rising yields, but also gives up some potential appreciation if yields fall. Both sides matter.

We also added exposure to catastrophe bonds. These securities compensate investors for taking on defined natural-disaster risks, introducing another source of income and a different driver of returns.

10/15/2026

SpaceX is priced as an AI infrastructure platform with a world-class telecom business attached, not as a rocket company. At ~93x trailing sales, the valuation already assumes that transformation succeeds. The business is real, but the multiple is a forecast, and most of the risk sits in the gap between the two.

10/14/2026

This morning’s inflation report gave the Fed very little to celebrate.

Consumer prices rose 0.6% in September, pushing annual inflation to 3.7%, up from 3.4% in August.

Gasoline jumped 9.1%, accounting for more than half the monthly increase. Housing costs also moved higher. Your gas tank apparently didn’t get the memo about inflation cooling.

10/12/2026

can consumers keep spending and companies protect profits without keeping inflation elevated? This week gives us several pieces of that answer

Monday Stocks are open, while the bond market takes the day off.

Tuesday brings JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citi and Wells Fargo. Watch credit quality, loan demand and what executives say about consumers.

Wednesday is the big inflation checkpoint: CPI at 8:30 Eastern. Expectations are for up 3.7% vs 3.4%. Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and ASML also report, followed by the Fed’s Beige Book.

10/10/2026

09/28/2026

Tuesday brings the August JOLTS report, providing an updated look at job openings and labor demand. The main event arrives Friday with the September jobs report, which will be closely watched following August’s surprisingly strong 162,000 payroll gain. The report is scheduled for Friday.

Micron will be the most important report of the week. Micron provides another read on demand for the high-bandwidth memory required to power advanced AI systems. Options markets imply it will move close to 9% upon earnings.

09/20/2026

My contribution to the "should you bring an iced coffee to a job interview?" discourse. Largely I think the answer is no, mostly because it can lead to other unforced errors in an interview with no upside.