07/16/2026
Over the past 46 years, two-thirds of all rolling 15-year periods spent roughly 13–14% of the time in recession. The remaining one-third of 15-year periods experienced just 1% of their time in recession—illustrating how unusually stable the past 15 years have been.
The lesson isn't that risks disappear; it's that long-term plans should be built to weather the unexpected, not to predict them and not to determine if it's different this time.
Most likely the outperformance with minimal volatility of the past 15 years will require a correction " reversion to the mean" as a more likely outcome vs. outsized performance continuing. No one will know when so today is always a great time to revisit you risk tolerance and goals!