The McDaniel Corporation

03/23/2026

📉 Markets Slide as War Escalation and Stagflation Fears Weigh on Stocks
Stocks had another volatile week as the ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran continued to intensify and weigh on global markets.
The S&P 500 fell nearly -2% last week and is now down close to -5% for the year.
The biggest driver behind the market’s weakness has been rising oil prices. Continued disruptions and escalating attacks tied to the Strait of Hormuz have kept oil near multi-year highs, increasing concerns about inflation and further delaying hopes for interest rate cuts.
At the same time, recent economic data is adding to stagflation concerns- a period of slowing growth combined with persistent inflation. Manufacturing data softened notably, while Producer Price Index (PPI) readings came in hotter than expected, signaling that price pressures (especially in services) remain elevated even as growth shows signs of cooling.
While the headlines have been dramatic, the market reaction has mostly followed a simple pattern: when oil moves higher, stocks tend to move lower.
The recent break below key technical levels suggests a more cautious environment in the near term.
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💹 Rates, Dollar & Commodities
Energy markets remain the center of attention. Oil prices continued to push higher last week as the conflict escalated, with disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz keeping supply concerns elevated. Brent crude surged sharply, while WTI crude also posted strong gains on the week.
The key factor remains the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil shipping routes. If shipping conditions improve, oil prices could decline quickly. If disruptions persist, prices may remain elevated and continue to pressure markets.
The U.S. dollar was volatile throughout the week, briefly pushing above 100 on the Dollar Index following the Fed meeting before pulling back and finishing slightly lower overall. Treasury yields moved higher, with the 10-year Treasury rising to around 4.4%, reflecting growing concerns that inflation may remain elevated longer than expected.
Gold saw a sharp and somewhat surprising decline, posting one of its worst weekly performances in decades as rising yields and a stronger dollar earlier in the week pressured the metal. Copper prices also fell, signaling increasing concerns about global economic growth.


www.stockcharts.com
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🔎 Takeaway
Right now, the main issues that appear to be influencing the market are:
• The U.S.–Iran conflict and oil prices
• Rising inflation uncertainty coupled with slowing economic growth (stagflation risk)
The most important factor for markets remains oil prices.
If oil stays elevated near or above $100 per barrel, it could continue to fuel inflation and slow economic growth. However, if oil falls back toward lower levels, much of the pressure on stocks could ease.
Outside of energy, the economic backdrop remains mixed. The labor market continues to show stability, with jobless claims remaining relatively low, reinforcing the “no hire, no fire” environment. However, weaker manufacturing data and rising input costs suggest the economy may be cooling.
This all seemingly suggests the economy is slowing but not breaking, at least for now.
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🔭 This Week – What Matters for Markets
While this week is lighter on major economic events, there are still several important reports to watch.
Investors will be focused on:
• Manufacturing and Services PMI data
• Consumer sentiment and inflation expectations
• Oil inventory data and prices
Markets will be looking for signs that growth is stabilizing, and inflation pressures are not accelerating further.
Any data that reinforces slowing growth alongside persistent inflation could increase volatility and add to stagflation concerns.
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🌐 Broad Overview
The market is currently navigating multiple uncertainties at once.
Geopolitical tensions, elevated energy prices, and uncertainty around future interest rate policies are all contributing to increased volatility.
At the same time, the underlying economy still shows some resilience. The labor market remains stable, and while inflation is elevated, it has not yet accelerated uncontrollably.
Because of that, the current environment still appears to be more of a period of adjustment and volatility rather than the start of a prolonged downturn.
However, risks are clearly rising. If oil prices remain elevated and growth continues to soften, stagflation could become a more dominant theme.
Until energy markets stabilize and geopolitical tensions ease, investors should expect continued market swings in the weeks ahead.
If you have any questions about your portfolio or the market outlook, please contact your CIAS Investment Adviser Representative.

Edward J. Sabo
Chief Investment Officer
Capital Investment Advisory Services, LLC

Important Disclosures:
Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to sell any product. The statements contained herein are solely based upon the opinions of Edward J. Sabo and the data available at the time of publication of this report, and there is no assurance that any predicted or implied results will actually occur. Information was obtained from third-party sources, which are believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to their accuracy or completeness.
The actual characteristics with respect to any particular client account will vary based on a number of factors including but not limited to: (i) the size of the account; (ii) investment restrictions applicable to the account, if any; and (iii) market exigencies at the time of investment. Capital Investment Advisory Services, LLC (CIAS) reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs. The information provided in this report should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. There is no assurance that any securities discussed herein will remain in an account's portfolio at the time you receive this report or that securities sold have not been repurchased. The securities discussed may not represent an account's entire portfolio and in the aggregate may represent only a small percentage of an account's portfolio holdings. It should not be assumed that any of the securities transactions, holdings or sectors discussed were or will prove to be profitable, or that the investment recommendations or decisions we make in the future will be profitable or will equal the investment performance of the securities discussed herein.

03/02/2026

📈 Volatility Continues as Markets Balance AI Fears and Global Tensions
Last week was another volatile one for stocks. Markets swung between gains and losses as investors reacted to AI concerns, inflation data, and rising geopolitical tensions.
By the end of the week, the S&P 500 finished down just under -.5% but it’s still up slightly for the year.
Much of the back-and-forth trading was driven by continued anxiety around artificial intelligence investments and whether mega-cap tech companies can maintain their rapid growth. At the same time, hotter-than-expected inflation data added pressure later in the week.
Over the weekend, the U.S. and Israel launched a large-scale strike on Iran, which added another layer of uncertainty heading into this week. As expected, oil and gold jumped higher while stock futures pulled back.
The big picture? Markets are dealing with multiple uncertainties at once, but so far, trading ranges are holding.
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💹 Rates, Dollar & Commodities
Interest rates moved lower last week, with the 10-year Treasury yield slipping below 4.00% for the first time in several months. Normally, falling yields support stocks, but this time the drop appears tied more to safety buying amid geopolitical concerns and stress in parts of the private credit market.
The U.S. dollar was relatively steady overall and commodities were generally stronger.
Oil surged, especially after the weekend escalation in Iran, with prices rising over 7% at one point as markets priced in higher geopolitical risk. Gold climbed about 3%, continuing its strong uptrend as investors looked for safety.
The key question now is whether oil prices stay elevated. If the conflict remains limited, energy prices may stabilize. A broader escalation would likely keep pressure on oil and add volatility to stocks and interest rate markets.

www.stockcharts.com
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🔎 Takeaway
The economy itself still looks solid. Jobless claims remain low, and overall growth is steady. However, inflation remains elevated. Last week’s producer price index (PPI) came in hotter than expected, which could delay potential summer rate cuts. Right now, the main forces driving markets (AI optimism, stable economic growth, a balanced labor market, continued consumer and business spending, and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut) remain largely intact with a few challenges.
The new Iran conflict adds uncertainty, and for now, an imminent flight to safety, but unless it expands significantly or causes a lasting spike in oil prices (which would be an inflationary pressure), it may not change the longer-term outlook for stocks.
Bottom line: volatility is elevated, but the overall economic foundation remains intact.
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🔭 This Week – What Matters for Markets
This is an important economic week that will likely be overshadowed by Operation Epic Fury news coming from the Middle East.
Investors will be watching:
• ISM Manufacturing (Monday)
• ISM Services (Thursday)
• Challenger Job Cuts (Thursday)
• The monthly Jobs Report (Friday)
• Retail Sales (Friday)
The market wants to see “Goldilocks” data -- strong enough to show the economy is healthy, but not so strong that it pushes the Federal Reserve to delay rate cuts further.
If job growth remains steady and spending holds up, that would reinforce the idea that the economy is still expanding at a sustainable pace.
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🌐 Broad Overview
The market currently feels like it’s in a tug-of-war.
On one side, the economy remains stable. Employment is healthy, growth is solid, and businesses are still investing — especially in AI and technology infrastructure.
On the other side, investors are nervous about inflation staying elevated, interest rates remaining higher for longer, and geopolitical risks continue expanding.
Technically, the broader trend is still positive, but volatility has picked up, and conviction is lower than earlier this year.
As long as the economy stays steady and oil prices don’t surge dramatically higher for a prolonged period, the bigger picture remains constructive, though short-term swings are likely to continue.
If you have any questions about your portfolio or the market outlook, please contact your CIAS Investment Adviser Representative.

Edward J. Sabo
Chief Investment Officer
Capital Investment Advisory Services, LLC

Important Disclosures:
Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to sell any product. The statements contained herein are solely based upon the opinions of Edward J. Sabo and the data available at the time of publication of this report, and there is no assurance that any predicted or implied results will actually occur. Information was obtained from third-party sources, which are believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to their accuracy or completeness.
The actual characteristics with respect to any particular client account will vary based on a number of factors including but not limited to: (i) the size of the account; (ii) investment restrictions applicable to the account, if any; and (iii) market exigencies at the time of investment. Capital Investment Advisory Services, LLC (CIAS) reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs. The information provided in this report should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. There is no assurance that any securities discussed herein will remain in an account's portfolio at the time you receive this report or that securities sold have not been repurchased. The securities discussed may not represent an account's entire portfolio and in the aggregate may represent only a small percentage of an account's portfolio holdings. It should not be assumed that any of the securities transactions, holdings or sectors discussed were or will prove to be profitable, or that the investment recommendations or decisions we make in the future will be profitable or will equal the investment performance of the securities discussed herein.

01/26/2026

📈 A Bumpy Week, But the Market Holds Steady
Stocks had a rocky start last week as tariff threats and global headlines rattled investors. But despite the noise, the market once again showed resilience. After several ups and downs, the S&P 500 finished the week down just under -.5% and is still up a little more than 1% for the year.
The week began with a sharp drop after President Trump floated new tariff threats against several European countries, tied to negotiations involving Greenland. That stirred up familiar “trade war” worries and pushed stocks lower at fast pace. At the same time, bond yields jumped overseas, especially in Japan, which added pressure and sparked a short-lived “sell America” move.
By midweek, nerves calmed. The administration softened its tone, and investors refocused on what really matters: the economy… Strong GDP growth and a steady labor market report reminded everyone that business activity remains healthy.
Still, inflation data came in a bit warmer than hoped. That cooled some of the optimism and may have kept the rally from fully taking off. By Friday, stocks mostly moved sideways as investors weighed solid growth against sticky inflation and policy uncertainty.
The big picture? Plenty of headlines… but the market continued to bend, not break.
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💹 Rates, Dollar & Commodities
Interest rates bounced around but ultimately stayed in a comfortable range. The 10-year Treasury yield ended near 4.25% while the U.S. dollar slipped a bit as money moved around global markets, but nothing dramatic. Currency moves remained orderly and didn’t create major headwinds.
Commodities, however, were lively. Gold and silver soared to new record highs as investors presumably looked for safety with a hedge against inflation. Energy prices also moved higher with a notable surge in natural gas prices thanks to severe winter weather forecasts. Overall, commodities had a strong week.

www.stockcharts.com
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🔎 Takeaway
If there’s one theme this year so far, it’s this: markets keep dealing with scary headlines—and then move on.
Tariff threats, geopolitical drama, and bond market swings caused some short-term volatility. But underneath all that, the foundation still looks fairly solid. The economy is growing, companies are still earning money, and the job market remains stable.
The main speed bump right now is inflation. Prices aren’t cooling as quickly as the Federal Reserve would like, which could delay interest rate cuts. That doesn’t necessarily mean trouble, it just means progress may be slower than investors hoped.
Bottom line: the fundamentals still matter more than the noise.
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🔭 This Week – What Matters for Markets
All eyes are on the Federal Reserve this week.
The Fed isn’t expected to cut rates yet, but investors will be listening closely on Wednesday for clues about when cuts might start. If the Fed sounds open to easing later this year, stocks could benefit. If they signal a longer pause, we could see some short-term pressure.
We’ll also get updates on jobless claims, business investment (durable goods), and producer & housing prices. As usual, steady and “nothing scary” data is typically what the market wants to see.
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🌐 Broad Overview
Right now, the market feels a bit like driving through light fog. Headlines pop up daily and create quick bumps, but the road underneath is still solid.
Economic growth has been steady, the job market has been healthy, and consumers are still spending, which continues to support businesses and corporate earnings. Long-term themes like AI and innovation also remain tailwinds for the market.
That said, it’s not all clear skies. Stock valuations are still on the higher side compared to history, which can limit how fast markets rise from here. We’re also starting to see hints of “late-cycle” behavior. Money appears to be rotating out of some of last year’s big winners and into more defensive or value-oriented areas. That doesn’t signal trouble by itself, but it does suggest investors are becoming a bit more cautious and selective.
In short, volatility may stick around, but as long as the fundamentals stay intact, the bigger picture remains constructive.
Please note: I will be on vacation next week, so there will not be a newsletter. We’ll pick back up the following week and cover all the details.
If you have any questions about your portfolio or the market outlook, please contact your CIAS Investment Adviser Representative.

Edward J. Sabo
Chief Investment Officer
Capital Investment Advisory Services, LLC

Important Disclosures:
Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to sell any product. The statements contained herein are solely based upon the opinions of Edward J. Sabo and the data available at the time of publication of this report, and there is no assurance that any predicted or implied results will actually occur. Information was obtained from third-party sources, which are believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to their accuracy or completeness.
The actual characteristics with respect to any particular client account will vary based on a number of factors including but not limited to: (i) the size of the account; (ii) investment restrictions applicable to the account, if any; and (iii) market exigencies at the time of investment. Capital Investment Advisory Services, LLC (CIAS) reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs. The information provided in this report should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. There is no assurance that any securities discussed herein will remain in an account's portfolio at the time you receive this report or that securities sold have not been repurchased. The securities discussed may not represent an account's entire portfolio and in the aggregate may represent only a small percentage of an account's portfolio holdings. It should not be assumed that any of the securities transactions, holdings or sectors discussed were or will prove to be profitable, or that the investment recommendations or decisions we make in the future will be profitable or will equal the investment performance of the securities discussed herein.

01/14/2026

📈 Markets Digest Strong Start to 2026 as AI Momentum and Economic Stability Drive Gains
Stocks began the year on a strong footing last week as investors looked past rising geopolitical and political headlines and instead focused on improving economic fundamentals and renewed enthusiasm around artificial intelligence. The S&P 500 is now up about 1.80% this year, reflecting growing confidence as markets move further into 2026.

Early in the week, markets responded positively to reports that U.S. military forces had detained Venezuelan President Maduro, with investors emphasizing potential longer-term economic opportunities in the oil-rich nation rather than near-term uncertainty. A softer-than-expected ISM Manufacturing report reinforced expectations for a supportive Federal Reserve and helped strengthen confidence in a soft-landing economic outlook.
That constructive backdrop was reinforced by renewed AI optimism following commentary from major technology leaders, including NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang at the Consumer Electronics Show. While volatility briefly picked up midweek after reports that China halted domestic orders for NVIDIA’s H200 chips and political rhetoric weighed on sentiment, the pullback was limited and orderly.

By week’s end, markets regained upward momentum as the December jobs report was viewed as “Goldilocks,” showing slower job growth but a welcome decline in the unemployment rate. Solid consumer sentiment and stable inflation expectations added further support, allowing stocks to close the week higher. Overall, last week’s action reflected healthy rotation beneath the surface and a market that’s seemingly more focused on fundamentals rather than headlines.

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💹 Rates, Dollar & Commodities
Interest rates were largely stable, with the 10-year Treasury yield finishing just under 4.20%, a level that remains neutral and supportive for risk assets. Economic data did little to change expectations for growth or inflation.

The U.S. dollar strengthened modestly, driven primarily by weaker inflation data in Europe rather than a shift in U.S. fundamentals. Importantly, the dollar remains within a range that has not historically posed a headwind for stocks.

Despite the stronger dollar, commodities moved higher overall. Energy prices were supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions, while precious metals rallied hard, seemingly benefiting from safe-haven demand and inflation concerns.



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🔎 Takeaway
Last week’s market performance highlighted the relative resilience of equities amid ongoing uncertainty. While political and geopolitical risks remained elevated, markets continued to draw support from stable economic growth, easing inflation pressures, and durable earnings trends, particularly within AI-related industries.

Economic data continues to strike a favorable balance, supporting growth without forcing the Federal Reserve into a more restrictive stance. With interest rates and the dollar in neutral territory and market leadership gradually broadening, recent gains appear grounded in improving fundamentals rather than excess optimism.

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🔭 This Week – What Matters for Markets
The coming week remains important for shaping expectations around Fed policy. The key focus will be the CPI inflation report, as progress on inflation remains the primary condition for additional rate cuts in 2026. Softer inflation readings would strengthen the case for possible easing later this year and could provide further support for equities.

Investors will also watch retail sales as a gauge of consumer health, along with weekly jobless claims and regional manufacturing surveys for early signals on economic momentum. Markets are likely to respond best to continued signs of stability rather than dramatic acceleration or slowdown.

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🌐 Broad Overview
Markets enter 2026 supported by steady economic growth, a resilient labor market, and inflation that continues to move in a constructive direction. While uncertainty around policy and geopolitics has increased, financial conditions currently remain supportive and corporate fundamentals broadly healthy.

Artificial intelligence remains a powerful long-term driver of growth, though leadership is becoming more selective and focused on companies with clear earnings visibility. With volatility resetting expectations and investors beginning the year with fresh capital, the overall backdrop remains constructive.

If you have any questions about your portfolio or the market outlook, please contact your CIAS Investment Adviser Representative.


Edward J. Sabo
Chief Investment Officer
Capital Investment Advisory Services, LLC

Important Disclosures:
Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to sell any product. The statements contained herein are solely based upon the opinions of Edward J. Sabo and the data available at the time of publication of this report, and there is no assurance that any predicted or implied results will actually occur. Information was obtained from third-party sources, which are believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to their accuracy or completeness.
The actual characteristics with respect to any particular client account will vary based on a number of factors including but not limited to: (i) the size of the account; (ii) investment restrictions applicable to the account, if any; and (iii) market exigencies at the time of investment. Capital Investment Advisory Services, LLC (CIAS) reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs. The information provided in this report should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. There is no assurance that any securities discussed herein will remain in an account's portfolio at the time you receive this report or that securities sold have not been repurchased. The securities discussed may not represent an account's entire portfolio and in the aggregate may represent only a small percentage of an account's portfolio holdings. It should not be assumed that any of the securities transactions, holdings or sectors discussed were or will prove to be profitable, or that the investment recommendations or decisions we make in the future will be profitable or will equal the investment performance of the securities discussed herein.
CIAS is a registered investment advisor. More information about the advisor, including its investment strategies and objectives, can be obtained by visiting www.capital-invest.com. A copy of CIAS’s disclosure statement (Part 2 of Form ADV) is available, without charge, upon request. Our Form ADV contains information regarding our Firm’s business practices and the backgrounds of our key personnel. Please contact us at (919) 831-2370 if you would like to receive this information.
Capital Investment Advisory Services, LLC
100 E. Six Forks Road, Ste. 200; Raleigh, North Carolina 27609
Securities offered through Capital Investment Group, Inc. & Capital Investment Brokerage, Inc.

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https://mcdanielcorp.com/a-christmas-gift-that-potentially-keeps-on-giving/

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