David Baker - Phoenix Private Wealth

07/17/2026

07/17/2026

🎙️The next episode of Overtime Earnings is now available!

In this episode, we have a special guest! Michael Lieberman of Advisors Capital Management. He provides analysis, feedback, and a few laughs during the conversation. If you're looking for perspective beyond the daily headlines, this is an episode worth hearing.

Some topics in this discussion include:
🔭An outlook on inflation
✅The future of interest rates
🔬The focus of fundamentals for long-term investors

If you would like to discuss your own strategy, or determine if we're a fit for you, please connect with us. We're happy to meet with you! Reach out to Greg Foster, Director of Marketing and Client Engagement. He can connect you with me or an advisor on our team.

📧 [email protected]
📞 410-309-3675

🎧 Listen to all episodes ⬇️

Apple Podcast 🔗 - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/overtime-earnings/id1874054220

Spotify 🔗- https://open.spotify.com/show/4Bu8IcKnBqRz1x6wpYjRwb?si=1y8Nt3HJTiWEbJ056kh3Pw

07/17/2026

As smoke from the Canadian wildfires drifts across parts of the Eastern United States, many communities are dealing with air quality concerns, disrupted daily routines, health risks, and uncertainty. Our thoughts are with everyone affected, especially those who have experienced evacuations, property damage, business interruptions, or concerns for loved ones. We hope for the safety of all impacted families, first responders, and communities working through these difficult conditions.

The reduced visibility caused by the smoke serves as a powerful reminder of something we often see in financial planning. When the road ahead becomes cloudy, it's difficult to make confident decisions. Inflation. Taxes. Market volatility. Healthcare costs. Retirement planning. Estate planning. Economic uncertainty.

Each can create a financial fog that makes it harder to see risks, opportunities, and the path toward your long-term goals.

The solution isn't waiting for perfect clarity. The solution is having a plan.

Just as travelers rely on navigation tools when visibility is limited, families and business owners can rely on a comprehensive financial plan to help make informed decisions when uncertainty arises.

At Phoenix Private Wealth, we help clients cut through the financial fog by providing clarity around:
✅ Retirement readiness
�✅ Investment strategy
�✅ Tax planning opportunities
�✅ Estate planning considerations
�✅ Healthcare and Medicare planning
�✅ Risk management
�✅ Business succession planning
�✅ Retirement income strategies

The future may not always be clear, but your financial direction can be. Many financial risks aren't discovered until they're costly to fix.

If you're uncertain whether your current plan adequately addresses the issues discussed above, contact Greg Foster, Director of Marketing and Client Engagement at Phoenix Private Wealth, at [email protected] or 410-309-3675. Greg can connect you with me or another advisor on our team.

🌐www.phoenixprivatewealth.com
�🌐www.davidbaker-ppw.com

07/17/2026

📈 Netflix just delivered one of the most important investing lessons of earnings season: a company can beat expectations and still see its stock fall.

Netflix reported earnings on July 16, 2026, that exceeded Wall Street expectations, yet the stock traded lower in premarket trading on July 17, 2026. (CNBC, July 17, 2026).

For many investors, that can seem confusing.

If earnings were good, why would the stock decline?

The answer is that stocks don't move based solely on whether a company beats earnings estimates. They move based on how the results compare to the expectations already built into the stock price.

When a stock has performed exceptionally well, investors often begin pricing in years of future growth. At that point, simply beating expectations may not be enough. Markets start asking tougher questions:

✅ Can growth continue at the same pace?
�✅ Will profit margins expand further?�
✅ Is future guidance strong enough?�
✅ Does the current valuation still make sense?

This is an important reminder that great businesses and great investments aren't always the same thing at the same moment.
A company can execute well operationally while its stock price struggles because investor expectations had become even higher.

As earnings season continues, investors should pay attention not just to who beats earnings, but also to how the market reacts afterward. Sometimes the reaction tells us more than the earnings report itself.

The bigger question for investors is whether their portfolio has become overly dependent on stocks that require near-perfect ex*****on to justify their valuations.

Periods like this can be a valuable opportunity to review:
• Concentration risk�
• Valuation risk
�• Exposure to today's market leaders�
• Whether your portfolio still aligns with your long-term goals

📩 If you'd like help understanding how current market conditions may affect your portfolio, or if you'd like greater confidence in your investment strategy, reach out to Greg Foster, Director of Marketing and Client Engagement at Phoenix Private Wealth. Greg can connect you with me or an advisor on our team.

📧 [email protected]
�📞 410-309-3675�
🌐 www.phoenixprivatewealth.com�
🌐 www.davidbaker-ppw.com

🎙️ Overtime Earnings isn't just about growing wealth while you sleep. It's about understanding the relationship between expectations, valuations, and long-term investment success.

07/17/2026

Financial Independence does NOT mean sitting on a beach forever. 🏖️🚫

One of the biggest misconceptions about the FI movement is that everyone just wants to quit their job and do nothing.

I’ve found the opposite is true.

Financial Independence isn’t about escaping work; it’s about escaping the need to work. When you remove the financial pressure, you don't become lazy—you become selective.

Many "financially independent" people I know still work very hard. They just do it on their own terms—starting businesses, working for nonprofits, or taking on passion projects that wouldn't pay the bills otherwise.

It’s not about the end of work; it’s about the beginning of doing work that matters to you.

07/16/2026

📉 Markets are providing an important reminder this week: valuation still matters.
Semiconductor stocks across Asia sold off sharply on July 16, 2026, with South Korea's Kospi falling as much as 7.3% as investors questioned whether AI-driven growth can continue to support lofty valuations. SK Hynix and Samsung were among the biggest decliners. (Reuters, July 16, 2026)
At the same time, a different story is unfolding in the U.S.

🏦 Bank earnings continue to impress. Morgan Stanley reported $3.46 per share on $21.35 billion in revenue, beating analyst expectations of $2.94 per share and $19.64 billion in revenue. Citigroup also exceeded expectations earlier this week. (Morgan Stanley Q2 Earnings Release, July 16, 2026; Citigroup Q2 Earnings Release, July 15, 2026).

🌡️ Adding to the positive news, the Producer Price Index fell 0.3% in June, released on July 15, 2026, following a cooler-than-expected CPI report on July 14, 2026. Both reports helped ease concerns about additional rate hikes. (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, July 15, 2026; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, July 14, 2026).

🛢️ Meanwhile, oil remains elevated as Middle East tensions continue, with WTI crude near $80/barrel and Brent crude around $85.68/barrel on July 16, 2026. (Reuters, July 16, 2026).

What's the takeaway?

Many investors have benefited from the AI rally, but periods like this remind us that even great companies can experience significant volatility when valuations become stretched. Strong bank earnings, cooling inflation, and shifting market leadership highlight why due diligence and focus on fundamentals remains extremely important.

Wonder if your portfolio is invested in a way that can deliver the outcome you are looking for?

If you'd like help understanding how these developments may impact your portfolio, or if you want confidence that your investment strategy remains aligned with your goals, let's talk.

📩 Contact Greg Foster, Director of Marketing and Client Engagement at Phoenix Private Wealth, who can connect you with me or an advisor on our team.

📧 [email protected]�📞 410-309-3675�🌐 www.phoenixprivatewealth.com�🌐 www.davidbaker-ppw.com

🎙️ Overtime Earnings isn't just about growing wealth while you sleep. It's about understanding the opportunities and risks that can impact your financial future.

07/15/2026

📉 IBM had its worst single day in 115 years yesterday with the stock down ~25%. Here's the perspective that got lost in the headlines (Yahoo Finance, July 14, 2026).

Let's be clear about what actually happened:

✅ IBM's Q2 revenue still grew — just slower than expected ($17.2B, +1% YoY) (IBM Preliminary Q2 2026 Letter to Investors, July 14, 2026)
✅ Software revenue was still up 5% (IBM Preliminary Q2 2026 Letter to Investors, July 14, 2026) ✅ Red Hat grew 11%, Distributed Infrastructure grew 37% (Hudson Labs Q2 2026 Earnings Analysis, July 14, 2026)
✅ The company generated $4.8B in free cash flow in the first half of 2026 (DatacenterDynamics, July 14, 2026)
✅ 31 consecutive years of dividend increases — still intact (Yahoo Finance / Quartz, April 23, 2026)

So what changed? Two things:

1️⃣ Clients redirected late-June IT budgets toward AI hardware (servers, storage, memory chips) instead of software and mainframes — a shift that caught the entire industry off guard. (CNBC, July 14, 2026)

2️⃣ Several large enterprise deals slipped past quarter-end. CEO Arvind Krishna's own words: "This quarter, we faltered." (Forbes, July 14, 2026)

That's a leadership team holding itself accountable to a higher standard — not a business in decline. IBM isn't broken. Its growth story just needs a rewrite for the AI era, and management is signaling they know it.

Meanwhile, the stock's valuation has meaningfully reset:
🔹 P/E: 25.7x → 19.2x — below its 10-year average of 26.3x (FullRatio / Finance Charts, July 14, 2026)
🔹 FCF Yield: 4.5% → ~6% (MarketScreener, July 14, 2026)
🔹 Dividend Yield: 2.3% → 3.1% (Stock Analysis, July 14, 2026)

Here's the takeaway for investors: volatility like this is exactly when perspective matters most. A one-day price move doesn't tell you whether a business is broken because the fundamentals do. And sometimes, the market gives long-term investors an entry point at prices that felt out of reach 48 hours earlier.

If IBM is in your portfolio or if you've been watching quality companies at premium prices and waiting for a better entry, reach out to us. Whether it's understanding how a move like this affects your specific holdings or building confidence around investing when headlines feel scary, that's exactly the kind of conversation we're here for.

📩 Reach out to us via DM or email: [email protected] / [email protected].

The Overtime Earnings Podcast isn't just about growing wealth while you sleep, it's about staying disciplined when the market gets loud. 🏆

07/14/2026

🚨 Big morning for markets. Here's what you need to know: 🚨

JPMorgan (JPM) — Largest quarterly profit in U.S. banking history 🏆 ▪️ Net income: $21.2B (+41% YoY) (JPMorgan 2Q26 Earnings Presentation, July 14, 2026) ▪️ Revenue: $58.0B (+27% YoY) (Yahoo Finance / Quartz, July 14, 2026) ▪️ EPS ex-items: $6.14 vs. $5.59 expected (MarketBeat, July 14, 2026) ▪️ Equities trading: +86% | IB fees: +30% (Yahoo Finance / Quartz, July 14, 2026)

Bank of America (BAC) — Beat across the board 💪 ▪️ Net income: $9.1B (+27% YoY) (Yahoo Finance / Quartz, July 14, 2026) ▪️ EPS: $1.21 vs. $1.13 expected (Quiver Quantitative, July 14, 2026) ▪️ Revenue: $31.6B (+15% YoY) (Yahoo Finance / Quartz, July 14, 2026) ▪️ Equities trading: +70% (record) | IB fees: +50% (Yahoo Finance / Quartz, July 14, 2026)

June CPI — Inflation cooled more than expected 🧊 ▪️ Headline CPI: 3.5% YoY (down from 4.2%) (CNBC, July 14, 2026) ▪️ Headline CPI MoM: -0.4% — biggest drop since April 2020 (CNBC, July 14, 2026) ▪️ Core CPI: 2.6% YoY (down from 2.9%) (CNBC, July 14, 2026) ▪️ Gasoline: -9.7% as energy prices unwound (CBS News, July 14, 2026)

Bottom line: Strong banks + cooling inflation = a constructive setup for the back half of 2026. But both JPM and BAC traded lower pre-market — a reminder that expectations matter as much as the numbers. (CNBC Bank Earnings Live Updates, July 14, 2026) 📉

Wondering what this means for your portfolio or business? Let's talk. 📞

🎙️ Catch our next market breakdown on The Overtime Earnings Podcast.

Sources (all July 14, 2026): CNBC, CBS News, Yahoo Finance/Quartz, JPMorgan & Bank of America Investor Relations, MarketBeat, Quiver Quantitative, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.