http://www.volpeinvestments.com/

Volpe Investments, 20 Commerce Drive Ste. 315, Cranford, NJ (2026)

09/07/2025

⚡️💡 Turning PSEG Into a Power Play for Your Wallet 💡⚡️

Electric bills in New Jersey keep climbing 📈 — with the average household paying around $130–$325 a month depending on usage. That’s easily $1,500–$3,900 a year just to keep the lights on.

But here’s the interesting part 👇

Public Service Enterprise Group (PSEG, ticker: PEG) — the same company that sends you the bill — has been quietly rewarding shareholders for decades.

Dividend Yield: ~3.1%

Dividend Growth: 14 consecutive years of increases

Long-Term Total Return: ~8–9% annually (including dividends reinvested)

💡 Translation: If you owned a solid block of PSEG shares, the dividends alone could cover a big portion of your electric bill each year — and over time, those payments grow as dividends rise.

It’s a classic example of using the system to your advantage:

Rising bills = rising revenues for the utility

Rising revenues = potential rising dividends for shareholders

Owning the stock means you get a piece of that back in your pocket

🔑 Of course, PSEG stock isn’t a “free power” button — it’s an investment with risks, and prices move up and down. But the idea of “owning the company that bills you” is a powerful wealth strategy worth thinking about.

⚠️ Disclaimer: This is for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Talk to your financial advisor before making investment decisions.

04/22/2025

This chart below shows that 2025 has had the 3rd worst start to a year for the S&P 500 since 1928, based on the first 74 trading days, with a -12.3% decline.

Key Insights:
🔻 Historical Context (First 74 Days):
Only 1932 and 1939, both Great Depression-era years, were worse than 2025 YTD.
Many of the worst starts (e.g., 2008, 2001, 1973) occurred around recessions or major crises.

🔁 What Happens After Bad Starts?
Outcomes vary:
2020: Rebounded sharply with +30.7% from Day 75 to year-end.
2001 & 2008: Continued falling after rough starts (both were deep recession years).

Mixed Bag: About half the years rebounded and finished positive; others worsened.

✅ Hope for Recovery?
In 10 of the 20 years shown, the S&P 500 had positive returns from Day 75 through year-end, even after a bad start.
2025 is still early — a sharp reversal is possible, especially with Fed pivots, earnings surprises, or easing geopolitical risk.

04/14/2025

The bottom is probably in.

· Last week we were able to check several of the boxes on our stock market bottoming process checklist including panic-level fear in investor surveys, volatility and volume spikes consistent with prior major market lows and capitulation, washed out levels of breadth, and indiscriminate selling followed by a massive up day when nearly every stock was higher.

· Better tariff headlines also help, including technology exemptions announced over the weekend. But massive tariff rates on imports from China (now 145%? It’s hard to keep track) and the fact that we could be back in the same place in early July after the pause still with higher tariff rates is uncomfortable. Also, consider that retests of the initial lows are common during big market downdrafts.

· There’s a decent chance the bottom is in after the S&P 500 traded down to 4,835 intraday last Monday. So, get your buy orders ready but be open to the idea of more near-term downside after the big rally off of last week’s lows.

04/10/2025

The week of April 7, 2025 has entered rare air in market history. The S&P 500 saw a sharp correction from recent highs, and the VIX (Volatility Index) surged past 60—a level rarely breached outside of crisis-level events. For context, similar volatility spikes have occurred during:

July 2002 – Following the dot-com bust and corporate accounting scandals
October 2008 – At the height of the global financial crisis
August 2015 – After China's currency devaluation
March 2020 – Amid the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic

The most recent surge appears to be driven by renewed macroeconomic tensions, including sweeping tariff announcements and rising fears of a global trade slowdown. As with past periods of elevated volatility, this moment calls for a clear-eyed assessment of both risk and opportunity.

What We Can Learn from the Past:
In each previous case where volatility spiked above 60, investors were faced with uncertainty—but also potential inflection points. While timing the bottom is nearly impossible, these moments have historically offered long-term entry points for disciplined investors.

Key Takeaways:
Volatility is a signal, not a direction. A high VIX indicates fear, not guaranteed losses. Stay focused on fundamentals. Short-term price action can distract from long-term value.

Use this time to reassess risk exposure and portfolio objectives. Markets tend to reward patience and preparation. The chart below shows just how rare this moment is—and why it deserves attention.

If you’re navigating this volatility or advising others through it, now is a time for clear communication, sound strategy, and emotional discipline. I’d love to hear how others are approaching this moment—drop a comment or reach out directly.

04/07/2025

Tariff Turmoil

The recent tariff escalations by the Trump administration have jolted the markets, presenting both challenges and opportunities for aggressive investors.

Market Dynamics and Economic Outlook:
Tariff Surge: The administration's imposition of a baseline 10% tariff on all trading partners, with higher rates for specific countries, has intensified global trade tensions.

Global Countermeasures: China's swift retaliation with a 34% tariff on U.S. imports, coupled with anticipated responses from Europe, signals a brewing trade war.
Economic Projections: Economists warn that these tariffs could slash U.S. GDP growth by approximately 1.5 to 2 percentage points and elevate inflation towards 5%.

Stock Market Implications:
Earnings Forecasts Under Review: initial projections of $260 for S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) in 2025 is being reassessed in light of recent developments, with a potential adjustment to the $250–255 range.
Valuation Targets Adjusted: The year-end fair value target for the S&P 500, previously set between 6,275 and 6,375, is also under scrutiny due to the evolving trade landscape.

Strategic Investment Approaches:
The current market volatility may present strategic entry points into equities, especially following recent bond market gains. Rebalancing portfolios to capitalize on potential undervaluations could be advantageous.

While the market digests these tariff developments, awaiting clearer signals or more favorable headlines before making significant moves might be more prudent.

In navigating this turbulent environment, aligning investment strategies with individual risk tolerance and long-term objectives is crucial. Staying informed and agile will be key to capitalizing on emerging opportunities amid the uncertainties.

04/04/2025

China Retaliation Introduces More Downside Risk

The escalating trade tensions between the United States and China have led to significant market volatility and economic uncertainty. China's recent announcement of a 34% tariff on all U.S. imports, effective April 10, mirrors the U.S. administration's earlier imposition of similar tariffs on Chinese goods. This tit-for-tat escalation has raised concerns about a deepening trade war and its potential impact on global markets.

Market Impact:
In response to these developments, global stock markets have experienced sharp declines. The S&P 500, for instance, posted its worst day in nearly five years, reflecting investor apprehension about the escalating trade conflict. Similarly, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and other major indices have seen significant drops, underscoring the widespread impact of the tariffs.

Corporate Earnings Outlook:
Analysts are revising their earnings forecasts in light of the new tariffs. Our research had projected S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 at $260. However, with the implementation of high tariffs, this estimate is at risk, and consensus estimates around $268 are expected to decrease materially in the coming weeks. The uncertainty surrounding the duration and extent of the trade conflict makes it challenging to predict the full impact on corporate earnings.

Potential Negotiations and Silver Linings:
Despite the current tensions, there are indications that negotiations may be on the horizon. President Trump has suggested the possibility of reducing tariffs if China approves the sale of TikTok's U.S. operations to American investors. This development offers a glimmer of hope that diplomatic solutions could ease trade tensions.

Moreover, market corrections often present buying opportunities for long-term investors. The current downturn may set the stage for future gains once uncertainties are resolved. Additionally, the administration's openness to negotiations and potential policy adjustments could mitigate some of the adverse effects of the tariffs.

Bottom Line:
The imposition of reciprocal tariffs by the U.S. and China has heightened economic uncertainties and market volatility. While the immediate outlook is challenging, ongoing negotiations and potential policy shifts may offer pathways to de-escalation. Investors should remain vigilant, focusing on long-term strategies and staying informed about developments in U.S.-China trade relations.

04/02/2025

Another Defining Moment

· September 11th, The Great Financial Crisis, and the pandemic shutdowns were defining moments for the economy. Could the changes in trade policy become another defining moment?

· Protectionisms — a form of 19th century mercantilism — often mistakenly focuses on the danger of a trade deficit. But a trade deficit can attract foreign direct investment because the importing country needs funding to cover the difference between its imports and exports.

· Today’s much-anticipated tariff announcements will shift markets from max uncertainty to max tariffs before negotiations give countries an opportunity to bring country-specific tariff rates down.

· After starting tariff rates near 3% (of import values), today’s announcement could potentially take average rates up to as high as 20%.

· Based on comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and other Trump administration officials, countries will then have an opportunity to negotiate lower rates after high rates go into effect, reportedly immediately.

· The announcement comes at 4:00 p.m. ET. However markets react to the details, any selling pressure tomorrow and Friday is more likely to be an attractive intermediate term buying opportunity in our view, as the more onerous scenario will be digested first and uncertainty will have begun to clear.

04/01/2025

Plenty of Bright Spots in a Tough First Quarter

· The broad U.S. stock market benchmarks suffered first quarter losses amid a rotation out of mega cap technology stocks and other plays on artificial intelligence (AI). However, there were plenty of gains to be found across various asset classes and sectors, demonstrating the power of diversification.

· While the large cap S&P 500 Index slipped 4.3% and the small cap Russell 2000 Index tumbled more than 9%, the Russell 1000 Value Index gained 2% during the quarter. We haven’t quite seen enough technical progress to call the growth uptrend broken but we’re watching the chart more closely.

· The MSCI EAFE Index measure of developed international returned a solid 7%. Double-digit gains in Europe and a weak dollar fueled international gains. We remain neutral international on the belief that these markets may have come too far too fast ahead of tariff announcements.

· The MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Index returned 3% in the quarter primarily due to strong gains in China (+15%), while Brazil (+14.1%) and Korea (+5.2%) also chipped in and more than offset double-digit losses in tech-heavy Taiwan. The improvement in fundamental and technical conditions for EM is notable.

· Plenty of sectors finished in the green during the first quarter, including energy (+10.2%), healthcare (+6.6%), consumer staples (+5.2%), and utilities (+4.9%). Only four sectors were lower, including communication services, consumer discretionary, and technology, with industrials effectively unchanged, down just 0.2%.

We expect these beaten-down sectors to lead the way back up, particularly communication services, while improving outlooks for energy and financials, based on our quantitative work, are notable.

03/31/2025

Tariff Fog to Start Clearing Soon

· Wednesday is a big day. The Trump administration will provide more clarity on its tariff plans.

· The latest news has been a mix of encouraging talk about narrow reciprocal tariffs and hard-hitting auto (and auto parts) tariffs.

· It’s tough to lay out a tariff playbook for investors right now, so our advice is to wait and see. Markets and corporate America will need time to digest the information and figure out their next move. As potential dip buyers, we’re not in a big hurry.

· We know markets hate uncertainty. But once it clears, stocks tend to rally. The S&P 500 gained 7% three months after the peak in trade policy uncertainty on August 31, 2019, and more than 16% until the pre-pandemic high on February 19, 2020.

· We don’t want to sound too bullish, and we remain cautiously neutral right now, but the opportunity for upside is there after some of this fog clears.

· There are several layers of tariff effects on the economy and, in turn, corporate profits. These numbers are mostly guesswork at this point, and how much of the tariff effects are mitigated remains unclear, but here are the pieces that the market is trying to size up:

Cost increases for importers
Companies bringing goods into the U.S. will experience higher costs. Only some of those costs will be passed along to consumers who already have inflation fatigue, leading to profit margin compression. We’ll get a mix of consumer inflation and a hit to profit margins but how much of each is unclear. Higher prices will curb demand.

Currency movements
The dollar should strengthen against the involved currencies once tariffs are put in, helping to offset some of the additional costs. This dynamic fueled the dollar’s sharp rise last fall.

Substitute products
At some point, customers balk at higher prices importers try to pass along. In some cases, they will find products made in America that are not inflated by tariffs and limit the hit to purchasing power. However, some companies follow competitors’ price increases with their own, even on non-tariffed goods, which can make inflation stickier.

Supply chain adjustments.
It’s expensive and time-consuming to shift supply chains to avoid tariffs, though Some of that occurred during Trump 1.0. And we’ll continue to see press releases about companies producing more in the U.S. to help mitigate the effects. Korean automaker Hyundai used that playbook last week, and we’ll likely hear more of that in a couple of weeks as earnings season gets underway. These adjustments will help mitigate long-term cost pressures, but U.S. production is often more expensive, limiting the long-term benefit of the changes.

03/28/2025

📈 February Inflation Update: Slowing... but Still Sticky

Recent data from the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — tells a story of progress, but also persistence:

✅ Headline inflation came in at 2.54%, continuing to cool from post-pandemic highs.

⚠️ Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose slightly to 2.79%, suggesting that price pressures in areas like health care and recreation remain stubborn.

💰 The savings rate ticked up to 4.6%, the highest since last summer, reflecting growing caution among consumers.

🍽️ Discretionary spending (restaurants, hotels, etc.) saw the sharpest decline in over two years — a sign households may be pulling back.

Bottom Line:
While overall inflation continues to move in the right direction, core prices remain elevated. That could keep the Fed cautious and interest rates higher for longer. The good news? Steady income growth and healthy consumer balance sheets are still helping to buffer the economy — for now.

📊 We’re keeping a close eye on the data so you don’t have to. If you have questions about how this impacts your financial plan, let’s chat.

Volpe Investments

09/07/2025

04/22/2025

04/14/2025

04/10/2025

04/07/2025

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03/31/2025

03/28/2025

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