10/19/2026
Last week the unmanaged market indices turned in a mixed performance. The narrow Dow Jones Industrial Average which is comprised of only thirty companies gained nearly two thirds of a percent and the Global Dow, a measure of foreign stocks, was up nearly one and an eighth percent. The technology heavy NASDAQ slid almost four and a half percent for the week with the S&P 500 slipping nearly two percent as technology and AI companies faced pressure. Both the Dollar and Gold slipped for the week declining a little more than four tenths of a percent and eight tenths of a percent respectively. The yield on the Ten Year Treasury seesawed climbing early in the week before a substantial decline in yields on Friday; for the week yield on the Ten Year Benchmark slid fourteen hundredths of a percent as buyers returned to the bond market. Oil surged more then eight and a quarter percent as Iran reasserted their control over the Strait of Hormuz attacking a dozen tankers last week.
Inflation data was front and center in last week’s economic releases. Consumer prices year over year were up three and seven tenths of a percent for the twelve months ending in September. Prices in September were largely driven by a nine percent jump in gasoline for the month. Looking at the “core” rate of inflation which excluders food and energy prices as they are more volatile and prices were up two and six tenths of a percent in the last year. This is still well outside of the Federal Reserve’s target of two percent. At the producer level as measured by the Producer Price Index prices climbed one and three tenths of a percent for the month and are up six and three tenths of a percent in the last year. Inflation is also revealing itself in import prices with an increase of more than eight percent in the last year; higher energy prices due to the conflict with Iran were a primary driver of this surge in import costs. Retail and food service sales for the month of September rose largely due to higher gas prices. In other economics releases we saw home sales increased for September but are down over the last twelve months. Industrial production climbed seven tenths of a percent for September and is up two and two tenths of a percent in the last year. Economic data being released this week is thin with housing starts being announced tomorrow. Next week however the Federal Reserve will meet to review interest rate policy and with last month’s inflation data all bets are off as to whether the Federal Reserve will refrain from raising rates with less than a week until the mid-term elections.
Elections are on front and center and November’s results will have profound implications for the next two years until the general election. There are critical issues both at home and abroad. Americans are frustrated. Wether this year materializes to be a change election remains to be seen. However one of the issues that has not been resolved since before the last election is Ukraine.
February of next year will mark five years since Vladimir Putin, war criminal and dictator of Russia, launched an illegal assault on their peaceful neighbor Ukraine. This criminal act of aggression on a peaceful democracy was met by a united Europe and the United States to stand up to the despotic Putin and his war machine. Putin initially boasted that the war would last a few days at most, which as an aside sounds remarkably like what the administration has said about its disastrous aggression in Iran. Nearly five years later and with more than two million dead and wounded the war grinds on and is entering a terrifying phase with the United States seemingly abandoning the cause of freedom and democracy in Ukraine. Cozying up to our historical adversary Russia adds to the growing list of stains on the moral fabric of our nation, and this administration’s appeasement of Russia may be the worst.
In this shameful abandonment of Ukraine in their struggle against Russia we are being lied to yet again by this administration. Ukraine’s strikes on Russia’s oil and gas industry are not the primary reason that diesel prices are hovering at record levels. Iran’s attacks on refinery capacity in the Middle East have been far more destructive and reduced diesel production more than Ukraine has. This is a fact and can be looked up. However, it is far easier for this president to falsely blame Ukraine than to take responsibility for this mess that is entirely of his own making. It is easier for this president to cozy up to a former KGB agent and war criminal than to level with the American people that he has caused the pain we are feeling at the pump. Something unthinkable and morally reprehensible to previous administrations.
The “deal” for “Russian” diesel may meet up to fifteen hours of monthly demand or about two percent per month. Remember Russia has a moratorium on diesel exports due to domestic shortages, which begs the question, where is this diesel coming from? Energy analysts have indicated that Russia is swapping weapons with Iran for oil and diesel. So follow this. The United States is allowing Russia to sell diesel for cash they desperately need to fight their illegal war in Ukraine. The diesel being sold may likely be from Iran who needs weapons to fight the United States and our allies in the region and prices will likely not move more than a few pennies.
Day one the war in Ukraine was supposed to be ended by this president. That was a lie. Just like the growing body of lies from this president. Energy prices would be coming down day one; they are up. That only the most dangerous undocumented criminal aliens would be deported. Another lie. Farms and construction sites are struggling to find workers because this administration’s draconian policies to deport hard workers whose only crime was not entering the country legally. Continuing down the list, immigrants are not eating their neighbors pets and schools which struggle for basic funding are not preforming complex gender reassignment surgeries as the president claims.
Stop for a moment and think about this last point. Local schools are overcrowded, many suffer from deferred maintenance, textbooks are often outdated and programs are being cut. Yet somehow the president wants you to believe that Tommy may come home from class one day and be Tammy. Never mind that gender reassignment surgery is preceded by years of counseling and hormone therapy. The surgical procedure is incredibly complex and requires specialists, anesthesiologists and often multiple surgeries that may take up to nine hours. This is not happening at your local school and the president’s repeated claims to the contrary point to two possible conclusions. Either this president believes people are incredibly stupid and that he can tell the most outlandish lies with impunity, or that the president is dumb with a “b”. These are not mutually exclusive. Transgendered people make up around one percent of our nation’s population where as more than five percent of U.S. households face very low food security meaning members of the household are skipping meals or reducing their food intake. This president and his administration seem far more concerned about vilifying people who are different as opposed to helping this nation’s citizens who are truly struggling.
Selling out the people of Ukraine to Russia for a tiny fraction of the world’s demand for diesel is a moral failing that will haunt our country for years. In the past our allies knew they could rely upon America to defend the interests of freedom and democracy and to be a leader in the community of nations with moral clarity. Today it seems like this nation will trade our values to save a few bucks on a tank of diesel. Our allies are watching with dismay while our historical adversaries are crowing and strutting on the world stage.
Election Day is fifteen days from now. Regardless of wether you agree with our opinions or not, this our country for all of us. Vote. Vote if you disagree and vote if you agree. Democracy relies upon an informed citizenry who peacefully participate in our process. As always thank you for reading and have a terrific week!
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