06/26/2026
๐ฐ Weekly Brief | 21โ26 June 2026
1๏ธโฃ PCE Jumps Above 4% in May
The May PCE inflation report came in hotter than expected, with the headline PCE Price Index rising 4.1% year-over-year and core PCE, which excludes food and energy, advancing 3.4%. Both measures reached their highest levels since 2023 and remain well above the Federal Reserveโs 2% target, reinforcing concerns that inflation pressures are proving more persistent than hoped.
The hotter inflation print has complicated the policy outlook and pushed markets to reassess the risk of further tightening. As of today, FedWatch tool prices in a 42% probability of one additional rate hike and a 28% probability of two hikes by the end of the year, suggesting that higher-for-longer policy, and even renewed rate increases, remain firmly on the table.
2๏ธโฃ Q1 GDP Revised Upwards
Real GDP grew at a 2.1% annualized rate in the first quarter, revised higher from the previous 1.6% estimate and a clear acceleration from the 0.5% pace recorded in Q4 2025. The revised figure also topped expectations, as economists surveyed by LSEG had projected growth of 1.6%.
The upward revision was driven primarily by stronger investment and an improved net export contribution, with additional support from exports, government spending, and consumer spending, while higher imports acted as a drag. At the industry level, growth was led by information technology, the federal government, professional services, and durable goods manufacturing, partly offset by weakness in retail, wholesale trade, and finance. Investment rise was especially pronounced in the information sector, reflecting continued AI-related spending on equipment, software, and R&D.
3๏ธโฃ JPMorgan Narrows Dimon Succession
JPMorgan Chase has sharpened its succession picture with a major leadership reshuffle that elevates Doug Petno and Troy Rohrbaugh to co-presidents and puts each in charge of one of the bankโs two largest businesses. Petno will become sole CEO of the Commercial & Investment Bank, while Rohrbaugh will take over Consumer & Community Banking, replacing Marianne Lake, who is retiring after more than 25 years at the firm. The promotions, backed by $30 million retention stock awards for each executive, effectively narrow the field of likely successors to Jamie Dimon, even as Dimon is expected to remain CEO for at least three more years.
4๏ธโฃ Oil Prices Head Back
Oil prices are completing a stunning round-trip decline toward pre-Iran conflict following the mid-June deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. WTI has settled in the low-to-mid $70s amid resuming tanker traffic. The normalization removes a major near-term inflation threat and eases pressure on global energy markets.
5๏ธโฃ SK Hynix Files for DR Listing
South Koreaโs SK Hynix, a leading supplier of high-bandwidth memory for AI servers, filed to raise up to $29.5 billion via American depositary receipts on Nasdaq with trading expected to begin July 10.
๐ผ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐น๐ข๐๐ ๐ด๐ ๐ ๐๐ก ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ก ๐๐ ๐ ๐
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Source: The Wall Street Journal, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Reuters, CNBC, CME Group, Fox Business
