Teton Crest Wealth Planning

Teton Crest Wealth Planning Financial planning firm helping clients of all walks of life with their financial goals.

06/10/2026

Inflation comes in hot this month. CPI rose .5% in May up 4.2% from a year ago. This is driven largely by energy prices which increased 3.9% in May alone, with gasoline prices up 7%. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose a modest .2% and is up 2.9% year over year. Bottom line is that inflation is largely being driven by energy right now which is a direct result of the conflict with Iran. When the conflict is over, energy prices will drop and inflation will follow. The real inflation is driven by the money supply, or what is called M2, which is usually around 6% but is at 4.7% right now. That's good overall for inflation. But the longer the Iran conflict goes on, the worse it is for energy prices and inflation.

It’s not about timing the market—it’s about time in the market that truly matters. This often surprises people, but Warr...
05/29/2026

It’s not about timing the market—it’s about time in the market that truly matters. This often surprises people, but Warren Buffett didn’t become a billionaire until he was over 50. Today, his net worth is around $147 billion, meaning over 99% of his wealth was accumulated after turning 50. Buffett started investing at just 11 years old, putting $114.75 into a natural gas company called Cities Service. His success is a testament to the power of time and compound growth. The earlier you invest, the sooner compound interest works its magic, potentially turning modest early investments into substantial wealth over time. Wealth-building isn’t exclusive to financial wizards—it’s accessible to
anyone with patience, discipline, and time on their side. -First Trust Portfolios

Media consumption continues to take up an increasing share ofour lives. The Digital 2026: The United States of America R...
05/29/2026

Media consumption continues to take up an increasing share of
our lives. The Digital 2026: The United States of America Report by Datareportal provides a comprehensive analysis of digital adoption and usage in the U.S. with over 150 in-depth charts, the report explores key trends in internet behavior, social media engagement, mobile usage, e-commerce, and digital marketing. According to GWI, a Dataportal partner specializing in global consumer research, American internet users spend on average over 43 hours each week consuming media, led by 17 hours of Television and 11.5 hours of Online Videos. -First Trust Portfolios

The American Time Use Survey, conducted annually by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, offers comprehensive data on how Ame...
05/29/2026

The American Time Use Survey, conducted annually by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, offers comprehensive data on how Americans spend their time, and who they spend it with. To understand how social connections evolve over a lifetime, we can illustrate the amount of time people spend in the company of others, categorized by age. According to the data, social interactions peak around age 35 before gradually declining. After this point, time spent alone begins to increase significantly, while time spent with children decreases sharply. This serves as a powerful reminder to cherish and invest in meaningful relationships while we have the opportunity. -First Trust Portfolios

The S&P 500 index is typically considered "the market." Over the last one hundred years, it has averaged 10.3 percent an...
01/08/2026

The S&P 500 index is typically considered "the market." Over the last one hundred years, it has averaged 10.3 percent annually. For 74 out of those 100 years, it's returned a positive return with the average positive return being 21.4%. Only 26 years has it been negative. If I told you you could win at blackjack 3 out of every 4 games, would you ever quit? This is why the stock market is so powerful. And why starting soon and consistently contributing is the key to success. At Teton Crest Wealth Planning, we are always happy to talk to you about getting started with your investments or making sure that you're investing the right way.

This is a great chart that tells an important story about market volatility.The orange bars show how far the S&P 500 fel...
01/06/2026

This is a great chart that tells an important story about market volatility.

The orange bars show how far the S&P 500 fell at its worst point during each year, while the blue bars show where the market finished by year-end.

For example, in 2025 the market was down as much as 19% during the year—but still finished up 16%. In 2022, the market dropped about 25% at its worst and ended the year down 19%.

The takeaway is simple: volatility is normal. Short-term declines can feel uncomfortable, but reacting emotionally during corrections often does more harm than good. Staying disciplined matters.

I’ll share another chart soon showing how often the market finishes a year up versus down—it adds even more perspective.

I'm going to share some of my favorite annual charts over the next few days. Here's the first one: Although major world ...
01/02/2026

I'm going to share some of my favorite annual charts over the next few days. Here's the first one: Although major world events can have an impact on the markets, long term markets consistently go up. Lesson: stay the course and don't panic.

12/22/2025

First Trust
Monday Morning Outlook
Greedy Innkeeper or Generous Capitalist?

Brian S. Wesbury, Chief Economist
Robert Stein, Deputy Chief Economist
Date: 12/22/2025

The Bible story of the virgin birth is at the center of much of the holiday cheer this time of year. The book of Luke tells us that Mary and Joseph traveled to Bethlehem because Caesar Augustus decreed a census should be taken. Mary gave birth after arriving in Bethlehem and placed baby Jesus in a manger because there was “no room for them in the inn.”

Some people think Mary and Joseph were mistreated by a greedy innkeeper, who only cared about profits and decided the couple was not “worth” his normal accommodations. This version of the story (narrative) has been repeated many times in plays, skits, and sermons. It fits an anti-capitalist mentality that paints business owners as greedy, or even evil.

It persists even though the Bible records no complaints and there was apparently no charge for the stable. It may be the stable was the only place available. Bethlehem was over-crowded with people forced to return to their ancestral home for a census – ordered by the Romans – for the purpose of levying taxes. If there was a problem, it was due to unintended consequences of government policy. In this narrative, the government caused the problem.

The innkeeper was generous to a fault – a hero even. He was over-booked, but he charitably offered his stable, a facility he built with unknowing foresight. The innkeeper was willing and able to offer this facility even as government officials, who ordered and administered the census, slept in their own beds with little care for the well-being of those who had to travel regardless of their difficult life circumstances.

If you must find “evil” in either of these narratives, remember that evil is ultimately perpetrated by individuals, not the institutions in which they operate. And this is why it’s important to favor economic and political systems that limit the use and abuse of power over others. In the story of baby Jesus, a government law that requires innkeepers to always have extra rooms, or to take in anyone who asks, would “fix” the problem.

But these laws would also have unintended consequences. Fewer investors would back hotels because the cost of the regulations would reduce returns on investment. A hotel big enough to handle the rare census would be way too big in normal times. Even a bed and breakfast would face the potential of being sued. There would be fewer hotel rooms, prices would rise, and innkeepers would once again be called greedy. And if history is our guide, government would chastise them for price-gouging and then try to regulate prices.

This does not mean free markets are perfect or create utopia; they aren’t and they don’t. But businesses can’t force you to buy a service or product. You have a choice – even if it’s not exactly what you want. And good business people try to make you happy in creative and industrious ways.

Government doesn’t always care. In fact, if you happen to live in North Korea or Cuba, and are not happy about the way things are going, you can’t leave. And just in case you try, armed guards will help you think things through.

This is why the Framers of the US Constitution made sure there were “checks and balances” in our system of government. These checks and balances don’t always lead to good outcomes; we can think of many times when some wanted to ignore these safeguards. But, over time, the checks and balances help prevent the kinds of despotism we’ve seen develop elsewhere.

Neither free market capitalism, nor the checks and balances of the Constitution are the equivalent of having a true Savior. But they should give us all hope that the future will be brighter than many seem to think.

(We’ve published a version of this same Monday Morning Outlook during Christmas week, each year, since 2009.)

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