Monocot Wealth Management

10/11/2026

Last week the S&P 500 gained 0.9% to close at a record 7,812, the Dow rose 1.2% to 51,655, and the Nasdaq added 0.6% to 27,366. Stocks rallied steadily into Q3 earnings season, with the S&P 500 notching its first close above 7,800. FOMC minutes released Wednesday revealed a divided Fed, tempering fears of an imminent second hike and giving equities room to advance.

The 10-year Treasury yield eased to 5.24%, down slightly from 5.27% the prior week, as a solid Treasury auction cooled demand fears and pulled yields back from a 24-year high.

What we are watching this week, as CPI and the biggest bank earnings week of the quarter collide:

- Q3 earnings from UnitedHealth, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and ASML
- CPI — September and y/y Inflation (Wed)
- PPI — September Producer Prices (Thu)
- Retail Sales (Thu)
- Unemployment Claims (Thu)
- Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

$UNH $JPM $GS $WFC $BAC $ASML $TSM

10/04/2026

Last week the S&P 500 edged up 0.2% to close at 7,723, the Nasdaq gained 1.3% to 27,191, while the Dow slipped 319 points to 51,177. The week opened under pressure as Trump's rejection of an Iran peace deal sent oil prices higher, but markets rallied sharply by Friday. September's jobs report showed only 29,000 jobs added — well below the 84,000 expected — pushing unemployment to 4.2% and all but eliminating odds of another Fed rate hike in October.

The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.27%, up from 5.17% the prior week, as hot PCE data mid-week pushed rates higher. Friday's jobs miss eased yields from their peaks but wasn't enough to reverse the weekly drift upward.

What we are watching this week, as Q3 earnings season kicks off and the Fed's minutes reveal the rate path ahead:

- Q3 earnings from Delta Air Lines, PepsiCo, and Constellation Brands
- ISM Services PMI (Mon)
- FOMC Minutes (Wed)
- Unemployment Claims (Thu)
- Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment — Preliminary (Fri)
- Preliminary UoM Inflation Expectations (Fri)

$DAL $PEP $STZ

09/27/2026

Last week the S&P 500 gained 1.2% to close at 7,743, the Nasdaq surged 2% to 27,069, and the Dow added 0.3% to 51,829 — snapping a three-week losing streak for the Dow. A burst of AI optimism fueled the move, with Meta Platforms jumping 13% on the week. Markets shrugged off a volatile bond market where the 10-year yield briefly touched a new cycle high of 5.18%.

The 10-year Treasury yield settled at 5.17%, up from 5.01% the prior week, as the post-hike rate environment and persistent inflation fears keep borrowing costs at levels not seen since 2023.

What we are watching this week, as PCE, GDP, and the September jobs report close out the quarter:

- Earnings from Micron, Nike, and Carnival
- CB Consumer Confidence (Tue)
- JOLTS Job Openings (Tue)
- ADP Employment (Wed)
- PCE Inflation (Wed)
- Q2 GDP Final (Wed)
- ISM Manufacturing PMI (Thu)
- Unemployment Claims (Thu)
- Nonfarm Payrolls — September Jobs Report (Fri)

$MU $NKE $CCL $ACN

09/21/2026

Last week the S&P 500 slipped 0.1%, the Nasdaq gained 0.7%, and the Dow fell 1.7% — its steepest weekly decline since March — as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday and signaled additional hikes remain on the table. Tech held up relatively well, while rate-sensitive names weighed heavily on the Dow.

The 10-year Treasury yield crossed above 5% to close at 5.01%, a level not seen since late 2023, as the Fed's hawkish stance and persistently elevated oil prices keep relentless upward pressure on rates.

What we are watching this week, as a parade of Fed speakers calibrates the market's next move after last week's hike:

- Earnings from Costco and KB Homes
- S&P Global Flash PMI — Manufacturing & Services (Wed)
- Unemployment Claims (Thu)
- New Home Sales (Thu)
- Durable Goods (Fri)
- Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment (Fri)
- Revised UoM Inflation Expectations (Fri)

$COST $CBRL $BB $AZO $DRI $KBH

09/14/2026

Last week the S&P 500 fell 0.6% to close at 7,656, the Nasdaq lost 0.7% to 26,333, and the Dow shed 426 points to 52,657. Markets returned from Labor Day to a wall of worry — escalating U.S.-Iran conflict sent oil prices surging, and the Treasury's announcement of tripled buybacks in longer-dated debt pushed yields sharply higher. Stocks stabilized Friday but couldn't reclaim the week's losses.

The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.98%, approaching the psychologically critical 5% level, as oil-driven inflation fears and a hawkish Warsh — who flagged at Jackson Hole that there is still "work to do" on inflation — push rates toward a potential hike.

What we are watching this week, as the Fed's rate decision dominates everything:

- Earnings from Trip.com, Kroger, and Lennar
- Retail Sales (Wed)
- FOMC Rate Decision and Warsh press conference (Wed)
- Unemployment Claims (Thu)
- Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (Thu)
- BOJ Monetary Policy Statement (Fri)

$TCOM $KR $LEN

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09/06/2026

Last week the S&P 500 fell 0.4% to close near 7,682, the Nasdaq slipped 0.3%, and the Dow dropped 0.5% — giving back the prior week's recovery. An August jobs report that shattered expectations — 162,000 positions added versus a forecast of just 55,000 — flipped the rate narrative overnight and reignited bets on a September Fed hike. Renewed U.S.-Iran fighting and climbing oil prices piled on the inflation pressure.

The 10-year Treasury yield surged to 4.76%, up sharply from 4.65% the prior week, as the hot payrolls data sent bond markets into sell-off mode.

What we are watching this week, as the last inflation prints before the Fed's September 16 decision take center stage:

- Q2 Earnings releases from Oracle, Adobe, RH
- ECB Monetary Policy Statement (Thu)
- PPI — August Producer Prices (Thu)
- CPI — August Inflation (Fri)
- Unemployment Claims (Thu)
- Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (Fri)
- Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations (Fri)

08/30/2026

Last week the S&P 500 gained 0.5% to close at 7,712, the Nasdaq rose 0.9% to 26,402, and the Dow climbed 0.5% to 53,560 — the Dow's first winning week in three. Markets gave back some ground Friday after Fed Chair Warsh used his Jackson Hole address to highlight persistent inflation concerns, though the week's gains held and the S&P 500 remained consolidating near its recent range.

The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.65%, down from 4.74% the prior week, as midweek GDP and PCE data showed inflation pressures continuing to ease.

What we are watching this week:

- Q2 earnings from Broadcom, Palo Alto Networks, and Dell
- ISM Manufacturing PMI (Tue)
- ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (Wed)
- ISM Services PMI (Thu)
- Unemployment Claims (Thu)
- Nonfarm Payrolls — August Jobs Report (Fri)

$AVGO $PANW $DELL

08/23/2026

Last week the S&P 500 fell 1.4% to close at 7,674, the Nasdaq dropped 2.1% to 26,180, and the Dow slid 0.9% to 53,277 — snapping a three-week winning streak. Rising oil prices on escalating U.S.-Iran tensions sent the 30-year Treasury yield to its highest level in decades, rattling equities early in the week. Markets staged a partial recovery by Friday after flash PMI data showed U.S. business activity expanding at its fastest pace in over four years.

The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.74%, up from 4.68% the prior week, as oil-driven inflation fears kept upward pressure on rates.

What we are watching this week, as Nvidia, PCE, and the Fed at Jackson Hole all converge:

- Q2 earnings from Nvidia, Marvell, and Salesforce
- CB Consumer Confidence (Tue)
- Prelim GDP q/q (Wed)
- PCE Inflation (Wed)
- Unemployment Claims (Thu)
- Fed Chair Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole (Fri)
- Prelim Benchmark Payrolls Revision (Fri)
- Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment (Fri)
- Revised UoM Inflation Expectations (Fri)

$NVDA $MRVL $CRM

08/16/2026

Last week the S&P 500 climbed to close at 7,785, the Nasdaq finished at 26,729, and the Dow settled at 53,732 — extending the S&P 500 and Nasdaq's winning streaks to three consecutive weeks. Wednesday's cooler-than-expected CPI report was the week's catalyst, pushing the S&P 500 to a fresh all-time high of 7,799 on Thursday.

The 10-year Treasury yield edged to 4.68%, fractionally higher than 4.66% the prior week, as the softer CPI data offered little reason to move rates dramatically in either direction.

What we are watching this week, as retail earnings take center stage and the Fed shows its hand:

- Q2 earnings from Walmart, Home Depot, and Target
- Housing Starts & Building Permits (Tue)
- FOMC Minutes (Wed)
- Unemployment Claims (Thu)
- Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (Thu)
- European Flash Manufacturing & Services PMIs (Fri)

$WMT $HD $TGT

08/10/2026

Last week the S&P 500 surged 3.6% to close at a record 7,758, the Nasdaq jumped 5.2% to 26,691, and the Dow rose 3% to 54,037 — crossing 54,000 for the first time ever. The catalyst was a stunning July jobs report: the U.S. economy unexpectedly shed 23,000 jobs versus an expected gain of 80,000, flipping the rate narrative overnight and erasing fears of further Fed tightening. Technology led the charge, with Nvidia gaining 11% on the week.

The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.66%, down from 4.75% the prior week, as the weak payrolls print cooled rate hike expectations and sent investors into bonds.

What we are watching this week, as inflation data steps in to validate — or complicate — the new Fed narrative:

- Q2 earnings from Nebius, Supermicro, and Rocket Lab USA
- CPI y/y and m/m (Wed)
- PPI m/m — July Producer Prices (Thu)
- Unemployment Claims (Thu)
- Retail Sales (Fri)
- Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (Fri)
- Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations (Fri)

$NBIS $SMCI $RKLB $CRWV $AMAT