Skains Investment Partners

06/11/2026

6-11-2026
Iran, Derek on the road, and Rockets, Oh My! (SpaceX)

In my last note from the beginning of April 2026, I mentioned that the administration in D.C. was saying Iran wants an end to the war, they are negotiating with us, and it was said that the war could end in a couple of weeks. I summarized that there were some inconclusive statements/actions and that I felt that the end was not really close. Here we are about 2 1/2 months later than that last note and it feels that we are no closer to an end and the U.S. just started bombing Iran again to attempt to bring them to the table to sign an agreement. Some positives that I see is that the administration has just said they they’ve had a secret program for a little while now to help ships get in and out of the Persian Gulf. If true, that’s good news for trade and I hope it keeps going. A quick look at the site, MarineTraffic.com shows there are still a lot of ships in the Gulf. Remember, about 20% of the world’s energy products (Oil, natural gas, LNG) flows through the Strait of Hormuz from the Persian Gulf.

The price of a barrel of oil right now is about $91 for WTI as I write this. It has been bouncing between $115 and about $80 since my last note. As you may already know, the price of oil can influence the prices for consumers for just about everything as most products that we consume are transported by trucks and or trains that run on diesel fuel. (oil is refined to create diesel, gas, jet fuel and other derivatives) Since oil has gone from the $50/barrel area to these much higher prices since the activity in Iran started, consumers are seeing higher prices, just as we saw inflation for the month of May (2026) was just reported at a rate of about 4.2%, the highest we’ve seen in a few years. As inflation is a little bit of a concern at these levels, you can understand why interest rates are a little higher in the marketplace. If inflation gets too high, the Federal Reserve usually raises interest rates to slow the economy down a bit to get inflation under control. So even though the Fed has not done anything with rates in a while, in the marketplace, they have been rising on their own. The national average for a 30-year mortgage now is about 6.55% which is high considering where we were a few years ago with exceptionally low rates.

My feeling, when we get the “Iran thing” solved, we could see over time the price of oil drop to the previous lows that we saw before the Iran issues, if not lower. I lean toward even lower prices as production in the western hemisphere has been increasing lately and I think its possible we could go into a glut situation on oil unless some producers voluntarily cut back on production. This should bring inflation back under control, lower fuel prices for everyone and potentially put us on a path for the Fed to lower rates…..which would be a boost for the housing, transportation, and retail markets and everything that supports them.

I will be in Houston for a few days and available to meet with clients and prospects. I will be available for meetings from about the 28th of June to the 1st of July. I will be driving there and back so if you know of anyone along the way that would like to meet, let me know.

Everyone is talking about the new IPO coming out tomorrow, SpaceX. This will be the largest IPO in history and its currently over four times oversubscribed. Meaning there are requests for four times more shares than what is coming out. That kind of demand will usually mean that the price could pop when it starts trading. It’s being priced at $135 per share and when you look at valuation, the offering is being priced very richly. As an example, all of the companies that make up the Aerospace group within the S&P 500 are valued at about $1.5 trillion. SpaceX is being valued at $1.8 trillion by itself. SpaceX is not only a rocket company that is getting paid by the U.S. and others to launch astronauts and satellites, but they are also an AI (artificial intelligence) language and Starlink. Starlink, in my wife’s words, “is a game changer.” While I’m driving, she is frequently on zoom calls on her laptop with multiple people, for work, or she is reading and writing e-mails for work. I even had a Facetime phone call with my daughter while driving through the Organ Pipe National Monument, which like most national parks, does not have any cell service whatsoever! Our Starlink mini is with us on any road trip now and we have been very happy with it over the year that we’ve had it. Starlink has over 10 million subscribers in over 165 countries and is currently a large part of the revenues of SpaceX. Also, with public sentiment turning against data centers with a “not in my backyard” kind of mantra, SpaceX already has plans to create data centers in space! They will no doubt be powered by solar panels made by Tesla, powered by computer chips made by Tesla, and put into space by rockets launched by SpaceX. This company will be so large that they will be included in many indexes if not right away, over a little bit of time. This will create additional buying into the shares as they are added to various indexes as those managers who manage money to mirror an index would be forced to buy them. A number of new IPO’s usually will fall in price over time. Could it happen with SpaceX? It might, and it might not, but if you are a growth mutual fund investor there will be no doubt you would probably be an owner to some degree through mutual funds. But look at Tesla… (another Elon Musk company)

Tesla owns a little more than 19 million shares of SpaceX. Tesla received these shares when they sold SpaceX the AI language. Keep in mind Tesla has rarely ever traded at a low multiple like most “car” companies. Some say it’s an Elon Musk premium. But Tesla is also a large solar equipment company, a robot company that is supposedly going to be producing more than 30,000 robots annually, a battery manufacturing company and soon a computer chip manufacturing company. Elon was unable to find a company that could produce the number of computer chips for his various companies’ needs so he has recently decided to build his own chip manufacturing plant. Think about that; his satellites, rockets, cars, and robots all need computer chips, not to mention his yet to be built space-based data centers. Musk also has another company named Neuralink that makes implantable computer chips for humans, but that company is separately owned. Not by Tesla or SpaceX. If we see a pop in SpaceX shares on the IPO tomorrow, we will likely see Tesla shares move also as they own over 19 million shares of SpaceX. There are rumors that at some time Elon Musk might want to merge Tesla into SpaceX. We will see. Elon revolutionized the car industry. The interest and demand he has created in Electric Vehicles (EV’s) is not comparable with any other accomplishment since Ford started the assembly line to build cars. Not to mention the direct sales model of selling direct to the customer has broken the mold of car dealerships that we’ve all experienced. Tesla now sells more than 1.5 million cars a year. Obviously, Tesla is not just another car company after 16 years of being public so what do you think SpaceX “might become” after 16 years or more of being public? Elon is getting ready to turn 55 years old this month so he could have many more years to “Create”! Don’t forget he also owns X (formerly known as Twitter) and The Boring Company, an underground tunneling company.

In conclusion, you can see that the world is ever changing and with that the investing markets are always changing. This is what keeps me going is interpreting what is happening on a global scale and determining how that affects our investing markets and helping customers manage their investments within this environment. As always, if you know of anyone who may need help with their investments, retirement plans, insurance needs, etc, please let me know. If you have any questions or comments, please get in touch. My prior notes that I have sent out are all available on my business page. Just search for Skains Investment Partners on Facebook and please “Follow.” Also, I recently had my internet site rebuilt and there is plenty of information available there as well. You can find it at www.SkainsInvestmentPartners.com

My mentions of SpaceX, Tesla and any other public company are not solicitations or advice to buy shares, of any public company. Please consult with your investment advisor about investing in public companies.

Derek

All of the comments stated within these notes are the opinion of Derek Skains and not the opinion of Osaic Wealth, Osaic Advisory Services or Pershing LLC. These notes should not be considered investment advice. Please consult with your advisor so that when making investments you can make them within your respective investment objectives and risk tolerances.

At age 94, Warren Buffett recently announced his retirement as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway. This article focuses on investment fundamentals as well as tips and quotes from the famous investor.

04/30/2026

My updated website is live. Lots of great investment related information available.
SkainsInvestmentPartners.com

04/06/2026

Shared with clients on 4-1-2026

Risks, Are we hearing the whole story?, To the Moon Alice!!

On the date of my last note that I sent out, 3-19-2026, the S&P 500 broke a critical support level called the 200 moving day average. The next day it broke another support level. For the most part, the NASDAQ index broke similar support levels at very close to the same time. The next levels of support are quite a bit lower. All this means to me is that the risk in the equity markets had become much more elevated.
In this business we have 3 different kinds of research that we can follow; Fundamental, Technical and Quantitative. I feel its important to consider all 3 of these, when possible, in making investment decisions.
The definition of Fundamental research, from Investopedia: From an investing point of view, fundamental research (or analysis) is the method of determining a security’s intrinsic value by examining related economic, financial, and qualitative factors. It aims to identify if a stock is over- or undervalued by analyzing financial statements, management quality, and industry conditions.
From an investing point of view, Technical Research (or Technical Analysis) is a method of evaluating securities—such as stocks, commodities, or currencies—by analyzing the statistics generated by market activity, primarily past price movements and trading volume.
Unlike fundamental research, which looks at a company's financial health to determine its intrinsic value, technical research focuses on identifying trends, patterns, and behavioral signals to predict future price direction and determine optimal entry and exit points.
From an investing point of view, Quantitative Research (often called "quant research" or "quant analysis") is the systematic, data-driven process of using mathematical models, statistical methods, and computer algorithms to study financial markets, identify investment opportunities, and manage portfolio risk.
It removes human emotion and subjective judgment from the investment process, focusing exclusively on numerical data, such as historical prices, company financial ratios, and trading volumes.
Here are some recent statements that we have heard coming from Washington D.C., (the administration). We are going to pause bombing Iran. We are having very good talks with Iran. Iran has allowed 8 to 10 tankers go through the Strait of Hormuz.(the Gift) Iran is going to allow about 20 tankers to go through the Strait. Iran wants to end the war. We continue to have productive talks with Iran. But while we see and hear this, there have been statements from Iran saying, they are not in fact talking to us!
I look at Flight Radar 24 every single night. https://www.flightradar24.com I can tell you that every night I see anywhere from 2 to 6 tanker aircraft flying in the vicinity of Israel, Iraq, Saudia Arabia, the Persian Gulf, and Iran. To me, it does not make any sense whatsoever to be flying tanker aircraft if they are not there to support active military operations. My feeling is the bombing continues even when we are told we are holding off until (insert the date given) and then the next day we hear about the bombings on the news. I can tell you that fighter aircraft, B-52’s, B-1’s, B-2’s and military helicopters are not showing up on this program, in the Middle East. You can see the tanker aircraft as well as all of the cargo aircraft. I’m seeing roughly 5 to 6 C-17’s and some C-5 Galaxy aircraft, every night. So the amount of supplies and hardware that has and is moving to the Middle East is absolutely incredible. (For those that may not know, a tanker aircraft is used for re-fueling other aircraft like fighters, bombers and others who need to refuel to get back to base, as an example.)
Recently in the news it has been said that Iran is asking for a cease fire, but almost at the same time they fire a missile that hits an oil refinery in Israel and they threaten to cyber attack technology companies in the United States. They have attacked ships in the Persian Gulf and launched drones with explosives. Let me ask you a question. If you were asking the United States for a cease fire would you be launching missiles, drones and threatening cyber attacks? My feeling is that so much of the higher levels of government in Iran have been eliminated that we do not really know who is running the country. We may have one person or group asking for the cease fire while the military is still firing missiles and such. I do not think we are going to come to an agreement with Iran any time soon. I think Iran’s negotiating points are mostly going to be a no go for the U.S. Will the U.S. then go ahead and bomb their infrastructure like electric generating plants, Kharg Island, Oil production facilities, and desalinization plants as the President has stated? We have moved a considerable number of troops to the area. If we put “boots on the ground”, then this situation goes longer and I feel the investing markets will interpret this as a big negative.
I really do not see how this situation is going to come to a resolution within a couple of weeks, as we are hearing.
Now, lets look at something else. D.C. has told us about the ships being allowed to pass through the Strait. If you have an interest, check out this persons you tube channel. Its named, What’s Happening going on with Shipping. https://www.youtube.com/ (Click on “video’s” to arrange them in chronological order and view several of the most recent.)
He highlights exactly what is going on within the Persian Gulf and what ships are in reality are passing through the Strait. The “Gift” of 8 to 10 ships passing and then later saying up to 20 are passing is just not reality.
MarineTraffic.com is another site where you can see all shipping traffic around the world. Just as Flight radar 24 shows aircraft around the world, this one shows boats/ships.
I think the Administration is trying to give us what is perceived as tidbits of good news possibly to appease the investment markets and to tell the American public things are going better than reality.
Additionally and the Strait of Hormuz only has a very few number of cargo and tanker ships passing when the normal number is closer to 130 per day….the essential blockage of the strait is holding up not only critical oil and gas for markets around the world but also holding up many resources like minerals and chemicals used in manufacturing around the world. The you tube channel mentioned above states that the country of Australia only has about 39 days of fuel left. What happens when they run out? Economies around the world are at risk.
If you add all of these issues up, the risk in the market from a research basis, the words from D.C that are not reality, the likelihood that Iran agrees to the U.S. demands is why last week on Tuesday and Wednesday, for those accounts that I manage, I started to reduce risk by selling off growth/equity assets by approximately 30 to 50% of the account. Yes, the market went up quite a bit yesterday, but it just got back to the level where I was selling. I feel we have a better chance of market weakness than strength. But, if I’m wrong, we still have some funds invested. There could be some short term trading opportunities that come up.
Please keep in mind that I manage to the client and not to a model. I invest for each clients respective investment objectives and risk tolerances. I do not use models and make everyone fit into a particular model.
Tonight the President addresses the nation re: Iran. Tonight we launch a rocket sending astronauts to the moon. This Friday is Good Friday and the markets are closed. And, yes today is April 1st, and this note is NOT an April Fools joke newsletter.
In conclusion, you can see that the world is ever changing and with that the investing markets are always changing. This is what keeps me going is interpreting what is happening on a global scale and determining how that affects our investing markets and helping customers manage their investments within this environment. As always, if you know of anyone who may need help with their investments, retirement plans, insurance needs, etc, please let me know. If you have any questions or comments, please get in touch.

Derek
All of the comments stated within these notes are the opinion of Derek Skains and not the opinion of Osaic Wealth, Osaic Advisory Services or Pershing LLC. These notes should not be considered investment advice. Please consult with your advisor so that when making investments you can make them within your respective investment objectives and risk tolerances.

What's Going on With Shipping focuses on Maritime Industry Policy, and current events in the Maritime Sector, along with Maritime History. The channel features videos that examine the world's merchant marines, the international maritime sector, current events in the maritime trade, and history. You....