Ryan Cox Lending and Wealth Team

07/13/2026

07/13/2026

The Only Thing Constant Is Change🏠

Adjusting for housing market shifts looks different depending where you are.

And, of course, the market continues to shift right beneath our feet.

One of the recent key metrics is annual median home price growth at 1.8%, which is slower than recent years, while wages are rising about 3.5%

Wage growth outpacing the price of real estate is a good sign of gradual improvement in buyer affordability.

But the national mortgage payment / income ratio remains elevated at 38%, and that would need to get down to about 30% before housing feels affordable for the typical consumer.

So hopefully wage growth remains solid because home prices are still being supported by steady national demand as single family inventory for sale actually went negative year over year last month for the first time since 2023.

And this year over year visual of active housing inventory for sale is a good indicator of where the puck is going state by state...

07/06/2026

Restabilization Is A Good Thing🏠

The drop in oil prices back into the $68 per barrel range is helping to stabilize and slightly ease mortgage rates by reducing inflation fears.

However, because borrowing costs are primarily driven by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy rather than energy costs alone, 30-year fixed rates are expected to remain sticky in the mid-to-high 6% range.

The dynamic between crude oil and borrowing costs involves several factors...

Inflation Relief: Lower oil prices decrease business operating costs and consumer fuel expenses, directly easing headline inflation. Because mortgage rates closely track the 10-year Treasury yield, reduced inflation fears keep bond yields from spiking, preventing mortgage rates from climbing higher.

The "Stickiness" Factor: Despite oil returning to pre-conflict levels, mortgage rates have not plummeted proportionally. The Federal Reserve’s overall policy remains hawkish due to resilient labor data and core inflation. Because the Fed is hesitant to cut interest rates, the bond market is pricing in a longer plateau for borrowing costs.

Market Forecast: Analysts, including economists at Morgan Stanley, forecast average 30-year rates to hover between 6.00% and 6.75% for the foreseeable future, with a gradual potential to edge closer to 5.75% later in the year.

Glad to Platinum Preapprove™️ anyone you care about that could use my help or a second opinion with their purchase/refinance🏠🙌

06/29/2026

Don't Look Now🏠

…But the housing market could be hitting the stride we've been waiting for.

Housing demand remained steadier than many expected in the first half of 2026 because improved mortgage spreads limited the rate shock brought on by the Iran conflict and spiking oil.

The focus for the second half of the year is whether demand stays positive as jobs data, inflation, and treasury yields drive mortgage interest rate direction.

Glad to Platinum Preapprove™️ anyone you care about that could use my help or a second opinion with their purchase/refinance🙌

04/20/2026

First-Time Buyers Fall to Record Low🤷‍♂️

The share of first-time buyers entering the housing market dropped to just 21% last year, down 3 percentage points year over year and marking the lowest level since at least 1981, according to new data from the NAR.

By generation, the share of buyers who were first-time purchasers was:

• Younger Millennials: 60% (down from 71% last year)
• Older Millennials: 33% (down from 36%)
• Gen X: 21% (up from 20%)
• Younger Boomers: 8% (down from 9%)
• Older Boomers: 4% (unchanged)
• Silent Generation: 3% (down from 5%)

Older Millennials had the highest median household income of any generation at $132,700.

They also purchased the largest homes, with a median size of 2,100 sq-ft.

04/16/2026

Home Listings Sitting Unsold🥱

More than half of home listings are sitting unsold for 60+ days.

52% of February listings had been on the market for at least 60 days without going under contract.

This is the highest share since 2019, representing $347 billion in stale inventory, a record for this time of year.

The typical home that did sell spent 66 days on market, the slowest February pace in a decade.

The dynamic is simple: sellers are still listing at high prices hoping to negotiate down, but buyers are pulling back due to high rates, economic uncertainty, and the Iran war.

Home sales fell 3.1% year over year in February while supply continued to grow.

Florida metros are the worst off — Miami leads with 62.6% of listings stale, followed by San Antonio and Pittsburgh.

The Bay Area remains the tightest market, with San Jose at just 19.8%.