12/31/2025
As we begin to close out the day, we look back on a great 2025 and a very optimistic 2026.
2025 Year-End Review: Tracking Our Predictions and Looking Toward 2026
As we approach the end of 2025, it is essential to look back at the projections we made in December 2024. Reviewing our "hits" helps us refine our strategy and provides a clear picture of the current market landscape as we prepare for 2026.
I am pleased to report that several of our key forecasts for 2025 were realized, providing a strong foundation for our portfolios:
2025 Projections: What We Got Right
• Federal Reserve Action: We projected the Fed would implement at least two 25-basis-point rate cuts in the latter half of 2025. This materialized as expected, bringing the Federal Fund range down from 4.25%–4.50% to its current 3.50%–3.75%.
• Index Targets: Despite a volatile first half of the year with pullbacks of 15%–20%, we maintained our bullish outlook. The S&P 500 has successfully reached our 6,950 (12% gain) targets, and the Nasdaq has surpassed our 23,500 (15% gain) projection.
• Tax Legislation: Our forecast regarding the new administration’s tax policy proved correct. The passage of new legislation has made many individual tax cuts permanent and introduced new exemptions for tips, overtime, and auto loan interest.
• Bitcoin Targets: We set a 2025 target of $125,000 for Bitcoin. While the market has recently pulled back below $100,000, we successfully hit the $125k milestone earlier this year.
• The "Magnificent Seven" & AI: Our commitment to the tech giants and the AI buildout remained a primary driver of performance, even as we expanded into emerging sectors like Quantum Computing.
Portfolio Evolution
Throughout the year, we used market pullbacks to strengthen our positions. We added new names to our portfolios—including Alphabet, Affirm, Boeing, and Coinbase—while maintaining core conviction in long-term holdings like AMD, GE, and Nvidia.
Looking Ahead to 2026
While we have enjoyed a third straight year of solid gains, we are staying vigilant. We are currently monitoring:
• The upcoming appointment of a new Federal Reserve Chair in May 2026.
• The "Perfection Trap" for AI earnings.
• High consumer credit card debt and its impact on future spending.
• New Target of 8,131 for S&P 500 and 28,500 for Nasdaq.
Our goal remains to provide a professional, long-term look-ahead for your investments rather than reacting to short-term market noise.
Would you like to schedule a brief call to review your current 401(k) or brokerage rebalancing strategy for the new year?
Best regards, and we wish you a Happy New Year!!!
Darek Hunt