Malibu Wealth Planning

Malibu Wealth Planning Ryan Morelli | Financial Advisor
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09/02/2026

The Fed is signaling rate hikes. I want to be clear — you can't raise rates to make oil cheaper. You can't raise rates to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. All rate hikes do right now is add a second problem on top of the first one. Your mortgage, your credit card, your car loan — all get more expensive. The economy slows. Jobs get cut. They can't fix this inflation. They can only damage the economy trying.

Follow for more.

08/30/2026

One sector benefits from the exact environment hurting everything else. Defense.

Governments don't cut defense spending when the world gets dangerous — they increase it. Countries are rearming. Contracts are expanding. The wind is at its back.

💬 Comment DEFENSE and I'll show you how we're positioned right now.

08/25/2026

People are talking about oil — at least a little. Nobody is talking about fertilizer. And that's the story that's actually going to hit you at the checkout line.

Here's what's happening right now:

One-third of all globally traded fertilizer passes through the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict has shut down or damaged major production facilities across Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.

But here's the part that really concerns me — and that almost nobody is covering:

Fertilizer producers in India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan have had to shut down their own production. Not because of sanctions or politics. Because the natural gas they need to make fertilizer — which came from the Gulf — is gone.

It's not just that fertilizer can't get out. Countries that normally produce their own can't produce it either.

Here's the chain that follows:
→ Less fertilizer means lower crop yields
→ Lower crop yields mean less food
→ Less food means higher prices at every grocery store in the developed world
→ And in some parts of the world — real hunger

This is a slow-moving crisis that is already in motion. It will show up on your grocery bill before most people understand what caused it.

💬 Comment FOOD below and I'll send you the full picture of what's happening to the global food supply right now.

08/22/2026

Here's something the media isn't covering — and almost nobody on Wall Street is addressing at the depth it deserves.

We are in the biggest oil supply crisis in the history of the world.

Those aren't my words. Aramco — the largest oil producer on the planet — said it publicly. And here's the number that should stop you cold:

Even if the war stopped today, it would take 20 months to get the supply back online.

20 months.

And the war isn't over. The words coming out of political circles and the reality on the ground don't connect. The clock is already ticking — and most investors are completely unprepared for what this means.

I'm not saying this to alarm you. I'm saying it because you deserve to hear it now, before it's on the front page of every newspaper.

💬 Comment OIL below and I'll send you the full breakdown of what this means for your portfolio.

07/16/2026

While everyone is chasing AI, the strongest rotation in this market is happening somewhere else entirely.

Energy. Utilities. Materials. Industrials.

These don't make headlines. They're not exciting dinner party conversation. But the money flowing into them is real — and the earnings backing that move are real.

There's a rule I come back to constantly: by the time something is on the cover of a magazine, the trade is already half over. Sometimes completely over. The best opportunities are almost never the ones everyone is already talking about.

We don't follow the headlines. We watch the rotation and follow the money before the narrative catches up.

→ Where is capital actually moving right now?
→ Which sectors have earnings that justify the flows?
→ What's being ignored because it isn't exciting?

Those are the questions that matter.

💬 Comment ROTATION below and I'll send you which sectors we're currently watching and why.

07/13/2026

I want to be straight with you about something most advisors won't say out loud.

This market puts me in a genuinely difficult position. And I think anyone who tells you it doesn't isn't being honest.

Here's the dilemma:
→ If I step completely aside and the market keeps going, you fall behind
→ If I'm fully in and this thing corrects hard, you take the damage

There's no version of this where doing nothing is the right answer. And there's no version where going all-in is either.

The answer is being in the right sectors, at the right weight, with a clear plan for both outcomes. Not paralysis. Not recklessness. Intentional positioning.

That's the conundrum every serious investor faces right now. And managing it well — that's the job.

💬 Comment CONUNDRUM below and I'll walk you through exactly how we're currently balanced between participation and protection.

07/09/2026

Here's the gold and silver anomaly nobody is talking about.

Wars drive gold. Fear drives gold. That's not an opinion — it's one of the most consistent patterns in market history.

This war has driven neither. Gold and silver have barely moved.

That tells me one of two things:
→ Either this time is truly different
→ Or the move in gold is still coming

I've been around long enough to know which one I'm betting on.

We hold a meaningful allocation in precious metals. The fact that gold hasn't reacted the way it historically should doesn't shake our thesis — if anything, it reinforces it. Precious metals are still building a base. The room to move higher is still there.

When gold does react the way history says it should, I'd rather already be in position.

💬 Comment GOLD below and I'll send you our current thesis on precious metals.

07/07/2026

Nobody priced the war in. Here's why that matters.

When this war started, oil went over $100 a barrel. Twenty percent of the world's energy and fertilizer supply virtually stopped. Every historical model pointed to a significant market selloff.

Instead, the QQQ went up 31% in 6 weeks.

That has never happened — not at the highs, not at the start of a war, not with oil at those levels.

The market made a decision: one thing mattered more than all of it.
→ AI
→ Data centers
→ The infrastructure build-out

That's not a normal market reaction. And in my experience, when markets stop responding to risk the way they historically have, that's a signal worth taking seriously. Not a reason to panic — but a reason to pay attention.

💬 Comment WAR below and I'll send you a breakdown of how we're thinking about geopolitical risk in the current environment.

06/29/2026

The dot-com boom gained 100%. Then lost 78% from peak over the next two years.

Today's AI move is already larger and faster at the comparable stage. That should get your attention.

Here's what's genuinely different: leading AI companies have real, significant revenue. That's not nothing — it legitimately extends the cycle compared to 1999, when most tech companies had no earnings at all.

But it doesn't eliminate the risk. Because every historic bubble felt unstoppable from the inside.

The question isn't "is AI real?" It's:
→ What am I paying for it?
→ What's my exit?

Our discipline:
→ Predetermined exit levels on all AI exposure
→ Diversification within the theme — not one concentrated bet
→ Watching valuation and rotation signals, not just momentum

💬 Comment AI below and I'll send you exactly how we're currently positioned

06/26/2026

Everyone is talking about AI. And for once — the hype has a foundation.

The data centers being built right now represent one of the largest capital investment cycles in American history. The supply chain feeding them touches hundreds of companies:
→ Chips and semiconductors
→ Massive power infrastructure
→ Cooling systems
→ Land, steel, fiber, and logistics

And unlike past tech booms, these companies aren't making promises. They're making money.

But here's the nuance most people miss: even real, legitimate growth stories can become overcrowded trades. The job isn't just being in AI — it's being in the right part of the story at the right time.

💬 Comment AI below and I'll send you exactly how we're currently positioned in the AI supply chain.

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