06/30/2026
Recap of Last Week
• AI trade pulled back: After a strong rally, investors viewed AI-related stocks as overextended, leading to broad selling.
• South Korea tech weakness: Sharp declines in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix contributed to a 10%+ drop in the KOSPI, despite the market still being up roughly 125% year-to-date.
• Micron earnings impressed: Micron reported strong quarterly results, reinforcing expectations for continued high demand for memory chips and AI infrastructure spending.
• Apple disrupted the AI narrative: Apple announced price increases for laptops, tablets, and other devices rather than absorbing higher chip costs, raising concerns about downstream demand and pressuring technology stocks.
• Sector rotation: Investors shifted into defensive sectors:
o Winners: Healthcare, Utilities, Consumer Staples
o Laggards: Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Communication Services
• Macro backdrop remained supportive: Falling crude oil prices (below $70/barrel) helped ease inflation concerns and pushed Treasury yields modestly lower.
• Precious metals weakened: Lower inflation expectations and a stronger U.S. dollar weighed on gold and other precious metals.
• Dollar strength remained a theme: Treasury Secretary Bessent highlighted policies aimed at maintaining and expanding the U.S. dollar’s role as the world's primary reserve currency.
• Bitcoin struggled: Crypto assets found little support from the week's developments, with Bitcoin hovering near one-year lows.
The Week Ahead
• Jobs report is the key event: The June U.S. Employment Report will be the major focus of this shortened holiday week and the final major data release of the first half of 2026.
• Hiring expected to slow: Economists forecast 114,000 new jobs in June, below the March–May average of 155,000 jobs per month.
• Labor data before payrolls:
o Tuesday: JOLTS Job Openings
o Wednesday: ADP Private Payrolls
o Thursday: Official Employment Report
• Fed implications: Stronger-than-expected labor data could increase expectations for a 25-basis-point rate hike at the July FOMC meeting; current odds are around 30%.
• Oil vs. gasoline prices: Although crude oil has fallen sharply, consumers have not yet seen equivalent declines at the pump because refinery margins ("crack spreads") remain elevated.
• Russell index rebalancing: Monday’s annual Russell reconstitution is expected to drive significant trading activity.
• SpaceX index addition: The most notable change is SpaceX joining the Russell 1000 Index, with investors also positioning ahead of its expected inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 on July 6.