07/01/2026
The Dow’s Alphabet Move is a Sign of Weakness, not Strength
"The Dow Jones is once again proving why it has become one of the most outdated and least useful stock market indexes in America.
This week, S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that Alphabet will be added to the Dow, replacing Verizon. The financial media is treating it like the Dow is finally modernizing itself for the AI era. I see it differently. This is not leadership. It is not vision. It is not smart index construction. It is the Dow doing what it has done for years: showing up late, after everyone else has already made the money.
The Dow is supposed to represent the most important companies in the American economy. But unlike the S&P 500, it is not rules-based. There is no formula, no discipline, no objective threshold that decides who gets in and who gets kicked out. Instead, a committee at S&P Dow Jones decides when the index should change and which companies “feel right” for the list. That sounds harmless until you realize what it really means: the Dow is not a market index so much as a committee-curated museum exhibit that occasionally swaps out an old display piece for whatever has already become impossible to ignore.
That is exactly what is happening with Alphabet. Google has been one of the most dominant businesses on earth for well over a decade. It has been central to digital advertising, cloud computing, mobile software, and now artificial intelligence. None of that is new. The AI spending boom did not start yesterday. The Magnificent Seven did not suddenly become important last week. These companies have been driving market returns, corporate profits, and capital spending for years. Yet only now does the Dow decide it needs more exposure to big tech? That is not being ahead of the curve. That is a lagging indicator pretending to be a benchmark.
And the timing could not be more ridiculous. Instead of adding these companies before the market fully priced in their dominance, the Dow is adding them after the entire world has piled into the trade. After valuations expanded. After AI enthusiasm exploded. After mega-cap concentration became one of the biggest risks in the market. In other words, the Dow ignored the most important trend in the market for years and is now buying into it once the trade is crowded. The Dow will now hold five of the Magnificent Seven- Alphabet, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, and Nvidia- which together will account for roughly 18% of the index. This is not modernization. That is panic buying in a suit.
What makes it even more absurd is that the Dow still uses a price-weighted structure, which is one of the silliest relics in finance. A stock’s influence in the index is determined by its share price, not by the actual size of the company or its economic importance. Think about how insane that is. In a supposedly elite index of America’s biggest companies, weighting is still distorted by something as arbitrary as the sticker price of one share. A stock split can change a company’s importance in the Dow more than a change in its business fundamentals. This also leads to more concentration with high priced stocks like Goldman Sachs accounting for roughly 13% of the entire index and Caterpillar making up around 12%. This compares to low priced stocks like Verizon or Nike which each only currently account for about 0.5% of the index.
So now the Dow wants to have it both ways. It wants the credibility of owning AI and mega-cap tech leaders, but it wants to keep the same outdated structure and the same slow-moving committee process that made it miss the trend in the first place. It wants to look relevant without actually fixing what makes it irrelevant.
Replacing Verizon with Alphabet may make the Dow look smarter for a headline or two, but it actually exposes the problem. The Dow did not identify the future. It waited until the future was obvious, then stapled it onto an old index and called it progress.
The truth is that the Dow has become a follower, not a leader. It reflects where the committee finally got comfortable going after the move already happened. And by adding more mega-cap tech exposure now, after years of delay, it may be doing exactly what bad investors do: chasing yesterday’s winners while taking on tomorrow’s risk.
The Dow is not evolving. It is flailing. And every one of these late-stage reshuffles is a reminder that the most famous index in America may also be one of the least relevant."
-Brent Wilsey, Wilsey Asset Management
