10/17/2026
A target-date fund projection showing you're "on track" is answering one question: will you have enough, assuming the market behaves. It's not answering a second one: how much of that outcome depends on the market not having a bad few years right before you retire.
Those are different problems. The first is about accumulation. The second is about sequencing risk — and it tends to get ignored right up until it matters most, in the years immediately before and after retirement.