Executive Wealth Management of Raymond James

06/12/2026

June Market Commentary: The Age of Altruism?

The largest IPO in human history landed today. My response? Yawn! That is for now. My sense is this may reflect elevated levels of market enthusiasm.

I see so many red flags that it is hard to know where to start. Let's start with the purveyors of this deal stating they will make a record number of shares available to retail investors (little guys and girls), as they are often left out. How sweet, out of the kindness of their hearts. Listen, I've been in this business for 33 years. The last time any institution did anything for me out of the kindness of their hearts, including the most recent, would be zero! Yes nil, but every investor has to make their own decision based on their individual goals and risk tolerance. Also, the indices have changed so many rules that have been in place for decades to accommodate this deal. Again, if it's going to be such a great deal, why the rule changes? And don't get me started on the astronomical valuation of this deal. Infinity and beyond, baby!

With the launch of this IPO, there has been a mad rush by other AI companies to announce their own public offerings. This comes as the intellectual giant Bernie Sanders has floated the idea that US taxpayers take a 50% equity stake in AI companies, and, of course, President Trump has signaled he likes the idea. Let me get this right: The US government should pour billions of dollars into companies valued at over a trillion dollars that are burning capital faster than Sherman burned Atlanta, with no clear path to profitability. And oh, by the way, the WSJ and FT verified the OpenAI CEO Sam Altman had been privately lobbying for a government stake in AI companies.

I am no tech genius, but I have something more critical, good old-fashioned common sense. Common sense tells me there has been too much circular financing to develop a product that is becoming a commodity. Add to this that large purchasers of tokens, which is how these AI companies generate revenue, have now told their employees to cut their use to save costs.

I have written in recent missives (Ghost of Christmas Future) that when this party comes to an end, it could come fast while delivering significant discomfort.

As for current market technicals, the continued market pullback this week has completed a weekly chart "swing-high" on the Dow Jones Industrials. However, with only two of my three technical indicators being triggered to the downside, a technical "sell signal" has not yet occurred. The good news, in my experience, is that when technicals are as stretched as they were last week, not seeing a sharp pullback could be anecdotal evidence that the end is closer than believed.

01/06/2026

Minutiae minute!

CNBC today, in their news brief, stated that six years ago, there was a deadly attack at the US Capitol, and Democrats are marking the day by holding non-formal hearings. Interesting, if I recall correctly, there was only one death, which was the death of a "5'02" unarmed woman who a Capitol police officer shot.

I worked as a cop for 7 years, and back then, trespassing was a misdemeanor and not a capital offense!

Shame on CNBC and shame on the Dems!

11/21/2025

Below Commentary published Tuesday, November 18th!

November Commentary-Sell Signal Alert

Monday's market action set in motion a Dow Jones Industrial Average weekly chart "swing-high". This is the structure needed for an intermediate-term sell signal. This action also put all three of my indicators "in gear" to the downside, triggering an intermediate-term sell signal.

From a seasonal standpoint, this is unusual but probably needed given the level of froth in the market.

Speaking of froth, as I have stated on many occasions, Raymond James does not deal in Bitcoin, and I still struggle to see its utility. That said, I do peek in from time to time from a technical standpoint. Currently, the long-term (monthly) momentum indicator is transitioning from positive to negative. It also completed a monthly chart swing high in September. This could mean more downside pressure and perhaps some spill-over into the equity markets.

For me, when I get a sell signal, I attempt to reach my target cash position, then sit and watch.

NVIDIA reports earnings after the market close on Wednesday, which could undoubtedly be a market-moving event.

Interesting days indeed!

11/10/2025

November Market Commentary: Band on the Run!!

Today, on November 10, 1775, in Tun Tavern in Philadelphia, the United Marine Corps was born. Our PMI (primary marksmanship instructor) once quipped, "The Marine Corps was born in a bar, and I get back every chance I get." I hate to admit it, as I am proud to have served in the Marines, but knowing what I know now, I would not serve given the corruption of our government. My opinion only, given the fact that I earned the right to voice it!

Last week, while my family and I took a trip to Nashville to catch my 23-year-old daughter's favorite Beatle (and still the cutest according to her), Sir Paul McCartney, in concert, the buffoonery with the 535 members of Congress continued. This shameful shutdown, along with more cries of an AI bubble, roiled the market during my absence. This seems to continue the streak of increased market volatility on the rare occasion that I take time off!

Although the pullback last week felt very painful in my strategy, upon arriving at my office this morning, I was pleased to see that my technical signal was still showing a buy!

With today's positive start to the week, we have the makings of a weekly chart "swing low" on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which would provide the structure needed for a fresh intermediate-term buy signal.

This bull market, just like Sir Paul, continues to perform exceptionally well, given its age!

Cheers,

11/10/2025

Happy 250th Birthday, my United States Marine Corps.

Back in 1775, my Marine Corps came alive.

First, there came the color of blue, just to show that we were true.

Then there came the color of gold, just to show that
We were bold

Then there came the color of red, to show the blood we shed!

Semper Fi

11/10/2025

Happy 250th Birthday, to the United States Marine Corps.

Back in 1775, my Marine Corps came alive.
First, there came the color of blue, just to show that we were true.
Then there came the color of gold, just to show that we were bold
Then there came the color of red, just to show the blood we shed!

Smper Fi

08/26/2025

Estate planning is just as important for those without heirs, though choosing your medical and financial surrogates may need extra attention.

raymondjames.com

08/22/2025

[Below is my market commentary that I write and share with my Private Wealth clients each month. This one was released this past Monday!]

According to the Stock Trader's Almanac, the stock market fares better under Democrats, and the U.S. dollar holds up under Republicans. Consider this: The Dow Jones Industrial Average made a new all-time high this past Friday, and the dollar continues its dizzying slide. The Almanac goes on to say that since 1913, most post-presidential election years, Americans have had to "pay the piper" with bear markets, wars, and recessions.

Entering this year, I expected at least a recession/bear market history to continue, as my technical and fundamental indicators told me this market was a dead man walking! I have always been under the belief that once the gears of pain (bear market) start churning, there is no stopping them, by anyone, especially the President!

Let's talk about the Fed for a moment. For those long-time readers of my commentaries, you know that I believe the Fed is an abomination that should be abolished. It was created for banks, by banks, to do the bidding of banks. This is a fact, look it up! Furthermore, after the 2008-2009 financial crisis, Congress gave the Fed the authority to pay banks interest to park their reserves at the Fed. You heard me correctly; the Fed is still paying banks billions of dollars to park their cash rather than loan it out. Bankers are like the bunnies that visit my backyard every evening, in that they are cute to look at but scare off quickly! So, as they park money, the Fed loses money. Nice!

Now the Fed tells us they are waiting to see what effect tariffs have on inflation. Bond manager Jeff Gundlach stated on CNBC on August 4th that "tariffs don't cause inflation, increased money supply (M-2) does" (See attached chart/Inflation is the red line). He went on to say that tariffs don't increase the money supply. This is what I wrote back in the spring! I also know that every significant financial debacle in my 30 years in the business can be traced back to the Fed. All that said, I don't like the personal attacks on Jay Powell by President Trump.

My proprietary technical model continues to be in gear to the upside. And with the aforementioned new Dow Jones all-time high, the four-year cycle top opportunity from this winter has been laid to rest for the time being. Furthermore, my technical indicators are telling me there could be much more "dry powder" for additional gains. As I have mentioned in the past, I don't tie myself to dogma, but only to making as much money as I can ethically and legally for my clients. Therefore, as I have always stated, when the facts change, my opinion changes. With this in mind, I remain fully invested.

Cheers,

amazonaws.com

07/25/2025

The Profit meets the Maestro!

The Raymond James 2025 Summer Development Conference was outstanding as always. I look forward to sharing what I learned in the days to come.
Shout out to The Profit, Marcus Lemonis, who provided an incredible message in our morning session today!

09/16/2024

(Below is my Market commentary from last week, which I again call a short-term bottom!)

Tis The Season!
According to the Stock Trader's Almanac, "portfolio managers back after Labor Day tend to clean house in September." They say that the day after Labor Day (what I call Tuesday), the Dow Jones was down 11 of the last 15 years. I can confidently report that the score is now 12 out of the previous 16 years. Statistically speaking, this is pretty darn significant. October, historically, is just as poor typically as September; however, October is known as the "Bear Killer" as it ends what is generally the worst six months of the year for the market. In Presidential election years since 1950, October ranks as the worst month, down an average of 1%.

So, returning from the Labor Day weekend last week, I got a "short-term" sell signal in my proprietary technical analysis program. As most of you know, I don't write about it unless it triggers an "intermediate-term" sell signal, which, as of today, it has not. However, with today's (9/11) market action taking the Dow Jones below last week's low, which I hoped would not happen, I felt the need to mention it. At this time, I am looking at the 600-plus point drop today as a possible final push down into the current short-term sell signal. For this to prove the case, I need the "intermediate-term" buy signal (which is hanging on by a thread) to hold up. If it does, and I suspect it will, the table should be set for some short-term bottom.

Good news, right? I have been open about my belief that the market could make a top in late 2024 or early 2025. I now think there is better than a 50-50 chance that we have seen a top for 2024. Why? The Nasdaq 100 index made a lower high in August before rolling back over to the downside. Lower highs are one of the signs that a stock or index is breaking down! This is after a wave of negative sentiment on the Nasdaq 100 in early August, a buy signal. The last time sentiment got that low on the Nasdaq 100 and the ensuing rally did not carry the index back above the previous high was in December 2021. (Please see the attached chart courtesy of stockcharts.com). If the rally I wrote about above does not correct this downtrend, I would be inclined to lighten up on equities.

Changing gears, I know I will be asked over the coming days if I watched the Presidential debate last night. I did not. When I pay my car and homeowners insurance, buy groceries, etc., I know all I need to know. I tell my children to never try to defend the indefensible. As a man who stopped counting after the fourth time I raised my right hand to swear to uphold the Constitution, I have earned the right to say that, as a country, we would be much better off not attempting to defend the indefensible!

God Bless!

amazonaws.com