10/30/2023
When is free financial information dangerous? When it's provided without proper context. This S&P 500 seasonality chart has been practically everywhere I've looked the last few months. Unfortunately, it only represents a short period of time in the history of the markets... and the years that it wasn't true included the one bear market during this span of time.
The 20 year period leading up to 2022 had 18 positive years out of 20, which is unusual when looking back at the market's history. The chart's also excluding the dot-com bubble. See charts below for 2000, 2001, 2002, 2007, and 2008. It's very accurate... except for bear markets.
Charts like this can feed into our habit of "confirmation bias", or seeking information which supports our currently held beliefs. Free information like this encourages us to assume what we want from it without providing all of the relevant facts. For this reason alone, it should be taken with a grain of salt.