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Index Wealth Advisors

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Index Wealth Advisors

Index Wealth Advisors IWA completely avoids the futile, speculative, and unnecessary cost-generating activities of stock, time, manager, and style picking.

Index Wealth Advisors, LLC (IWA) is a fiduciary for its clients and a fee-only independent financial advisor that provides wealth management by utilizing risk-appropriate, risk-returns-optimized, and tax-managed portfolios of index funds. Instead, our investment strategy employs a disciplined, quantitative approach, emphasizing broad diversification and consistent exposure to publicly traded marke

ts around the world, with an overweighting of small and value priced companies. In short, we invest in capitalism.

03/12/2025

As legislators in DC bump up against a possible government shutdown after this Friday, March 14th, it’s probably a good time to look back at the last 21 shutdowns, and see how the S&P500 responded. Courtesy of Vanguard.

11 - Positive change
9 - Negative change
1 - Market closure

01/28/2025

Yesterday, Nvidia, the maker of the world’s most sophisticated AI processing chips, set the dubious honor of having the largest one day market drawdown in history, seeing its share price plunge 17% or $589B. (source: Forbes)

DeepSeek, a Chinese AI rival to ChatGPT, released an open source app available on iPhone and Android app stores which had results on par or better than ChatGPT, but with far less need for compute power.

There lies the issue. If programmers can make AI more resource efficient, what does that mean for the demand for Nvidia’s most advanced chips in the future.

*Nvidia was back up nearly 9% today, recouping some of the share price loss.

09/18/2024

Breaking News: Fed opts for a larger 0.50% interest rate cut, effectively ending its inflation fight, and embarking on the path to interest rate normalization.

09/16/2024

Happy Federal Reserve Meeting Week! Fed Chair Jerome Powell and the rest of the FOMC will meet this Tuesday and Wednesday to set short term interest rates. While the Fed could throw a curveball and hold rates steady again, the more likely question causing investors to scratch their head is, will it be a 1/4 or 1/2 percent rate cut at this meeting, kicking off the process of normalizing short term rates after a two year inflation fight.

05/22/2024

Last week the Dow closed above 40,000 for the first time. While it’s back down below that point today, we’re also thinking about the market’s anticipation for Nvidia’s 1Q earnings call tonight after the close. Nvidia makes most of the semiconductor chips used for AI processing and is around 5% weight in the S&P500 stock index.

Why are we contrasting the two storylines…Because Nvidia isn’t even in the Dow index of 30 US stocks. It’s another reminder of how imperfect the Dow is as a market index gauge.

02/29/2024

RIP Apple iCar. This week Apple announced they are stopping the development of their own automobile. They’ve been extremely quiet over the years as to what exactly they had in mind. Sounds like it was an autonomous EV vehicle, but really, not much is known.

We always wondered why they would even consider making and selling low margin automobiles, when they’re used to the incredible profit margins they enjoy on both their hardware items and the App Store.

Plus, Apple outsources all manufacturing to developing country businesses with low wages. It’s much harder to build and ship a car to the United States, than a small iPhone or iMac.

So, we’re not too surprised they came to this decision. Guess we’ll have to be content getting nauseous wearing their new Vision Pro VR goggles.

02/13/2024

Last week the S&P 500 US stock index closed above the 5,000 mark for the first time. Less than a month after the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 38,000 for the first time. Both reflecting an incredible run for the US stock market that began last October.

At the beginning of 2023, investors faced a lot of headwinds — rising interest rates, high inflation, and expectations for a recession caused by the Federal Reserve’s monetary actions.

You wouldn’t blame anyone for wanting to cash in their chips and wait on the sideline for the storm to pass. But that would have most likely resulted in a lot of regret. Instead, broadly diversified investors that stayed disciplined and stuck with their investment plan were rewarded with a stellar year of returns.

But this isn’t anything new. The stock market is notorious for zigging when many are convinced it will zag.

11/28/2023

The investing world lost a giant today. Warren Buffett’s long-time top-lieutenant, Charlie Munger, passed today. We had the pleasure of seeing Charlie and Warren years ago at one of their annual Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting pilgrimages in Omaha.

While Warren is known for his folksy demeanor, we always thought Charlie took the more direct route, offering investing and economic advice with more sarcasm and sharpness. But almost always funny.

With Warren also in his 90’s, Berkshire Hathaway is looking at a future with neither of its founders at the helm. Investors will anxiously watch to see if the next generation of Berkshire leaders have the same skill/luck as Warren and Charlie.

09/26/2023

Last week Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell announced in their September Fed Meeting that they will pause rate increases again and let prior rate increases continue to work through the economy. While a pause is usually considered dovish, his statements came off as hawkish. He said future rate increases may still be necessary to get inflation back to their 2% target. So many economists labeled this a “Hawkish-Pause.”

What’s interesting is that while the short maturity part of the US Treasury curve hasn’t moved since the Fed Meeting, the benchmark 10-Year Treasury rate/yield has jumped from 4.35% up to 4.55% as of Monday, Sept 25th.

It’s another example of how hard it is to predict market moves - even when armed with the very information the market was anxiously awaiting, the bond market moved in the opposite direction of what a rate pause would normally imply.

Graphic below: Fed fund rate increases since May 2022. Not shown - 25bps increase in March 2022 to begin the Fed’s inflation fight.

09/04/2023

A noteworthy moment occurred in August -- the 10-Year Treasury Bond yield hit its highest rate since 2007, before the Great Financial Crisis. It reached a high of 4.35% in August before settling at around 4.09% as of the last day of the month.

The chart below from ustreasuryyieldcurve.com shows the US Treasury market along maturity levels as of August 31st.

As one can see, the Treasury yield curve is still inverted, with higher rates/yields on shorter maturity bonds/bills than longer maturity bonds. A normal bond yield curve slopes up and to the right, with higher rates being paid for longer maturities.

06/26/2023

Professor Harry Markowitz, a giant in the finance/economics world, passed today at the age of 95.

He won the 1990 Nobel Prize in Economics for his work around Modern Portfolio Theory, which at its most basic, describes diversification and the benefit of combining different investments together to optimize expected return for a given level of volatility, aka risk.

Below is a hypothetical example of Markowitz’s ‘Efficient Frontier’ for optimal combinations of stocks and bonds with expected return on the Y axis and volatility on the X axis. The point being, an investor would want a portfolio that falls on this line, not below it.

While his theory has plenty of flaws, it is the foundation on which many professional portfolios are constructed today and why investors hear so much about diversification.

06/12/2023

Last week the S&P 500 Index officially reached bull market status, gaining 20% from its most recent low on Oct 12, 2022. Oddly, much of that gain comes from just a handful of mega-cap tech stocks like Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Alphabet (Google) and Meta (Facebook), while categories like Large Cap Value, Mid Cap, and Small Cap have lagged in the same time period.

With so few names driving the performance of the entire index, many wonder if this is an unsustainable bear market bull rally centered around AI excitement in a few large tech companies, or truly the beginning of a new bull market that hasn’t broadened out yet. Like most things to do with the stock market, it’s extremely difficult to know until it’s already in the rear view mirror.

Address

5440 West 110th Street Suite 300
Overland Park, KS
66211

Opening Hours

Monday	9am - 4pm
Tuesday	9am - 4pm
Wednesday	9am - 4pm
Thursday	9am - 4pm
Friday	9am - 4pm

Telephone

+19138970900

Website

http://www.indexwealthadvisors.com/

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