07/10/2026
๐๐บ๐ฝ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ ๐จ๐ฝ๐ฑ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ: ๐๐ผ๐ปโ๐ ๐๐ผ๐ผ๐ธ ๐๐ผ๐๐ป
Written by Patrick Dinan, CFPยฎ, CSRICยฎ
Is the market like Wile E. Coyote, who has run off a cliff but hasn't looked down yet? Or is it priced to perfection, knowing that $90 plus oil won't last and the Strait of Hormuz will be opened sooner than the media is letting on? Hard to say.
This year has seen sharp swings in the market. With the exception of software companies declining, the year started mostly strong until the Iranian war kicked off. We then saw international markets, which are largely dependent on Mideast oil, get hit fairly hard and in a matter of weeks declined by over 10%.
The market bottomed out in late March as the US entered a fragile ceasefire with Iran. The global market then rallied hard from April to May up over 14%, which is a move that has happened less than 1% of the time on a historical basis.
What happened to cause such a sharp reversal? Earnings. Over 84% of S&P 500 companies beat analyst estimates for the quarter and the market repriced stocks to the upside. Despite all of the chaos in the middle east, corporate earnings proved strong enough to outweigh every other headwind.
This follows a similar pattern to last year during the Trump Tariff tantrum. We saw a sudden drop followed by a swift snapback when Trump said he was just kidding about most of the tariffs. This shows you that trying to time the market can be a fool's errand, and sometimes the market does what everybody least expects.
Will this forward momentum continue indefinitely? Probably not. Over the past couple of weeks we have started to see some cracks with the market down about 3% from itโs peak and increased volatility. This could certainly be the opening salvo in the downturn. Should you be worried? No. Pullbacks are completely normal and healthy in a well-functioning market.
๐ฅ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฑ ๐ผ๐๐ฟ ๐ณ๐๐น๐น ๐ ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ธ๐ฒ๐ ๐จ๐ฝ๐ฑ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐ต๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฒ โ https://www.impactfiduciary.com/blog/2026/5/1/dont-look-down
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๐๐ช๐ด๐ค๐ญ๐ข๐ช๐ฎ๐ฆ๐ณ: ๐๐ฉ๐ช๐ด ๐ข๐ณ๐ต๐ช๐ค๐ญ๐ฆ ๐ช๐ด ๐ฑ๐ณ๐ฐ๐ท๐ช๐ฅ๐ฆ๐ฅ ๐ง๐ฐ๐ณ ๐จ๐ฆ๐ฏ๐ฆ๐ณ๐ข๐ญ ๐ช๐ฏ๐ง๐ฐ๐ณ๐ฎ๐ข๐ต๐ช๐ฐ๐ฏ ๐ข๐ฏ๐ฅ ๐ช๐ญ๐ญ๐ถ๐ด๐ต๐ณ๐ข๐ต๐ช๐ฐ๐ฏ ๐ฑ๐ถ๐ณ๐ฑ๐ฐ๐ด๐ฆ๐ด ๐ฐ๐ฏ๐ญ๐บ. ๐๐ฐ๐ต๐ฉ๐ช๐ฏ๐จ ๐ค๐ฐ๐ฏ๐ต๐ข๐ช๐ฏ๐ฆ๐ฅ ๐ช๐ฏ ๐ต๐ฉ๐ฆ ๐ฎ๐ข๐ต๐ฆ๐ณ๐ช๐ข๐ญ ๐ค๐ฐ๐ฏ๐ด๐ต๐ช๐ต๐ถ๐ต๐ฆ๐ด ๐ต๐ข๐น ๐ข๐ฅ๐ท๐ช๐ค๐ฆ, ๐ข ๐ณ๐ฆ๐ค๐ฐ๐ฎ๐ฎ๐ฆ๐ฏ๐ฅ๐ข๐ต๐ช๐ฐ๐ฏ ๐ง๐ฐ๐ณ ๐ฑ๐ถ๐ณ๐ค๐ฉ๐ข๐ด๐ฆ ๐ฐ๐ณ ๐ด๐ข๐ญ๐ฆ ๐ฐ๐ง ๐ข๐ฏ๐บ ๐ด๐ฆ๐ค๐ถ๐ณ๐ช๐ต๐บ, ๐ฐ๐ณ ๐ช๐ฏ๐ท๐ฆ๐ด๐ต๐ฎ๐ฆ๐ฏ๐ต ๐ข๐ฅ๐ท๐ช๐ด๐ฐ๐ณ๐บ ๐ด๐ฆ๐ณ๐ท๐ช๐ค๐ฆ๐ด. ๐ ๐ฆ๐ฏ๐ค๐ฐ๐ถ๐ณ๐ข๐จ๐ฆ ๐บ๐ฐ๐ถ ๐ต๐ฐ ๐ค๐ฐ๐ฏ๐ด๐ถ๐ญ๐ต ๐ข ๐ง๐ช๐ฏ๐ข๐ฏ๐ค๐ช๐ข๐ญ ๐ฑ๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐ฏ๐ฆ๐ณ, ๐ข๐ค๐ค๐ฐ๐ถ๐ฏ๐ต๐ข๐ฏ๐ต, ๐ข๐ฏ๐ฅ/๐ฐ๐ณ ๐ญ๐ฆ๐จ๐ข๐ญ ๐ค๐ฐ๐ถ๐ฏ๐ด๐ฆ๐ญ ๐ง๐ฐ๐ณ ๐ข๐ฅ๐ท๐ช๐ค๐ฆ ๐ด๐ฑ๐ฆ๐ค๐ช๐ง๐ช๐ค ๐ต๐ฐ ๐บ๐ฐ๐ถ๐ณ ๐ด๐ช๐ต๐ถ๐ข๐ต๐ช๐ฐ๐ฏ. ๐๐ฆ๐ฑ๐ณ๐ฐ๐ฅ๐ถ๐ค๐ต๐ช๐ฐ๐ฏ ๐ฐ๐ง ๐ต๐ฉ๐ช๐ด ๐ฎ๐ข๐ต๐ฆ๐ณ๐ช๐ข๐ญ ๐ช๐ด ๐ฑ๐ณ๐ฐ๐ฉ๐ช๐ฃ๐ช๐ต๐ฆ๐ฅ ๐ธ๐ช๐ต๐ฉ๐ฐ๐ถ๐ต ๐ธ๐ณ๐ช๐ต๐ต๐ฆ๐ฏ ๐ฑ๐ฆ๐ณ๐ฎ๐ช๐ด๐ด๐ช๐ฐ๐ฏ ๐ง๐ณ๐ฐ๐ฎ ๐๐ข๐ต๐ณ๐ช๐ค๐ฌ ๐๐ช๐ฏ๐ข๐ฏ, ๐ข๐ฏ๐ฅ ๐ข๐ญ๐ญ ๐ณ๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ต๐ด ๐ข๐ณ๐ฆ ๐ณ๐ฆ๐ด๐ฆ๐ณ๐ท๐ฆ๐ฅ.