04/17/2026
Most of the headlines in Q1 of 2026 have been dominated by the Iran War and its impact on global markets and oil prices. However, returns on the indexes were relatively flat for the year through February, before the conflict. We expected a slowdown in growth this year and Iran just happened to be the catalyst. It’s important to not forget that we are coming off of 3 years of back-to-back double digit returns on the S&P 500: 2025 – 16.4%, 2024 – 23.3%, 2023 – 24.2%.
That cannot go on forever. It’s not sustainable. If Iran didn’t slow down the markets, it would have been something else. A correction is warranted in the markets and is even healthy. Markets are still in great shape. In Q1, we saw the Dow Jones cross 50,000. This is doubled from 25,000 in 2018.
Investors were relatively unphased in the first week of the Iran conflict because they viewed it as a potentially short-lived military operation - similar to the capture of Venezuelan President Maduro. However, as we saw oil prices move, investors were unsure of how severe the impact may have been. The US has said that they do not intend to be in this war for very long which is sparing some of the downside. My prediction is that as soon as a sustainable peace deal is reached, oil prices will drop very quickly and markets will begin a strong recovery.
Logan