Thompson Davis & Co.

07/31/2026

Historically, August and September have been the weakest two-month stretch for the S&P 500. More recent data shows a similar pattern, with September standing out as the most consistently challenging month.

That does not mean a pullback is guaranteed. Seasonality is a historical tendency—not a forecast. Still, with markets entering a traditionally softer period, investors should be prepared for higher volatility and resist making emotional decisions based on short-term market swings.

The takeaway: stay disciplined, review your risk, and keep long-term goals at the center of your investment strategy.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

07/29/2026

The Fed held rates at 3.50%–3.75% today (the fifth meeting in a row). The twist: three officials dissented, all wanting a hike, the most hawkish split since 2016.

Round two comes after the close, when Microsoft and Meta report. Between them they've signaled well over $300B of AI infrastructure spending for this year.

Not a recommendation. Views are our own.

07/23/2026

Markets are optimistic—but valuations, concentration, and investor expectations are becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.

In the July edition of The Investor Insight, our CEO, Bill Davis, examines whether parts of today’s market are running on “magical thinking and pixie dust,” while also identifying potential opportunities among quality businesses left behind by the narrow rally.

We also tell the remarkable story of Luckin Coffee—a company that fabricated more than $300 million in sales, was delisted from Nasdaq, and entered bankruptcy, yet continued serving customers and eventually grew to more than 35,000 locations.

The lesson: A business can succeed while its stock fails—and a stock can rise while the underlying business weakens.

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06/24/2026

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has seen several notable changes in recent years.

The graphic below breaks down the most recent additions — when each joined, the company it replaced, its five-year trailing return before induction, and its performance since.

Also newly announced: Alphabet (GOOGL) is set to join the index effective 6/29/2026, replacing Verizon.

All data as of 6/23/2026. Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices press releases for addition dates; market price data. Returns shown are approximate price returns.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Not investment advice.

06/12/2026

Priced at $135 and opening at $150, SpaceX (SPCX) entered the public market with an IPO valuation around $1.77T.

For context, Facebook’s historic 2012 IPO was valued around $104B, and Uber’s 2019 IPO came in around $82B.

Based on the graphic, SpaceX’s IPO valuation is more than three times larger than the next nine U.S.-based mega-IPOs combined.

From social media and mobility to payments, autos, and cloud software, the IPO market has had plenty of defining moments. Today, SpaceX became the defining one.

The space economy has officially arrived on Wall Street.

06/08/2026

Great chart from the book Investing in America: The Rise Of A 250-Year Bull Market by Meb Faber.

1900

🚂 Railroads

⛏️ Coal

🏭 Steel

🧵 Textiles

➡️ Together, they represented roughly 80% of U.S. stock market value.

Today

💻 Software

☁️ Cloud Computing

📱 Digital Platforms

🤖 AI & Semiconductors

➡️ Industries that barely existed—or didn't exist at all 125 years ago—now account for roughly 70% of the market.

The lesson?

The stock market is a living organism. It continuously reinvents itself. The biggest winners of the future rarely look like the biggest winners of the past.

04/29/2026

Four hyperscalers report earnings tonight, with combined 2026 capex expected to exceed $600B.

To put that in perspective, that’s larger than the GDP of most countries—and roughly 75% is being directed toward AI infrastructure.

Chips may dominate the headlines, but the real story runs deeper. Someone still has to build the data centers, run the conduit, and install the cooling systems that make it all work.

That is where we are focused.

When contractors are expanding their own capacity just to keep up, it’s a signal worth paying attention to.

All eyes now turn to tonight’s reports, and more importantly, how 2026 capex guidance evolves.

04/08/2026

Thompson Davis Head of Research Adam Thalhimer recently participated in the 2026 Industrials & Basic Materials Investor Summit held by Lytham Partners.

His conversation with Lytham Vice President Adam Lowensteiner explored where the sector stands in today’s economic cycle and the key forces shaping what comes next—from AI-driven infrastructure buildouts and aging assets to policy tailwinds driving renewed investment.

In this Analyst Insights discussion, Adam Lowensteiner, Vice President of Lytham Partners is joined by Adam Thalhimer, Director of Research, Thompson Davis &...

04/07/2026

President Trump's 8PM ET deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is hours away — and markets are watching closely.

The chart below, from Lloyd's List Intelligence, tells the story: Iranian-affiliated vessel transits through Hormuz have been a dominant and volatile driver of shipping activity since early March. The strait handles roughly 20% of global oil trade, and Iran's blockade has helped push crude oil above $114/barrel — up nearly 40% since the conflict began in late February.

What happens tonight matters for energy, inflation, and global supply chains.

Three scenarios we're watching:
• 🕊️ Deal reached → Strait reopens, crude pulls back sharply
• 🔁 Deadline extended (again) → Short-term relief, but uncertainty premium stays elevated
• 💥 Escalation → $120+ crude, broader regional disruption, risk-off move across markets

Energy names, pipeline infrastructure, and defense-adjacent sectors are all in focus as we head into tonight.

03/09/2026

Crude oil has topped $100 for the first time in four years following the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Since the Strait is a vital artery for 20% of global oil and LNG, the halt in maritime traffic has reintroduced a significant geopolitical risk premium to the markets.

Key Takeaways for Investors:
• Effective Blockade: Security risks and canceled insurance have brought transit through the Strait to near zero.
• Supply Paradox: The crisis hit a market that was previously in a strong surplus, causing a sharp, sudden price spike.
• Global Reach: While Asia has the most exposure, the disruption is driving up energy costs and volatility worldwide.

We are actively monitoring these developments to help you navigate market uncertainty.