10/19/2026
When considering different investments it is important to look at the sequence of returns.
The 3 portfolios below all had the same average return of 7%, but the ride to get there was very different.
If you bought and held all three for 5 years it made no difference... besides the emotional ups and downs. However, if you were adding or withdrawing money along the way then the math shifts.
The biggest issue is timing. If you bought all three portfolios in year 2 vs year 1 then Portfolio B still had a 7% average return, Portfolio A drops below 7%, and Portfolio C jumps above 7%. I would rather my investments results not rely to heavily on timing, therefor I would take the more consistent stream of returns any day.
When considering the choice between two investments with historically similar average returns make sure to dive one layer deeper to see what, how, and when those returns were generated.
-Aston Edmunds, CFA, CFP®