Concho Investment Advisors

08/20/2025

Interesting observation by Liz Ann Sonders, not the first time this year we have seen this phenomenon where history does not correspond to future performance.

Every single one of reported S&P 500 factors that lagged index between January and July are outperforming MTD; in contrast, first 7 months’ biggest winners, including Momentum, High Beta, Growth and Pure Growth have all lagged MTD

08/18/2025

Corporate earnings are behind the strength in the stock market.

Corporate profits are on track for a double-digit climb, led by the tech sector.

07/17/2024

The CPI report on July 11th drove a major inflection point in the markets. We shifted overweights to small cap stocks and real estate and removed overweights in growth stocks.

If the narrative around AI is changing—and there are some signs it is—the big spenders could see their valuations and stock prices fall.

03/29/2024

Kahneman was such an unlikely person: a psychologist who won the Nobel Prize in Economics. His work on behavioral finance with Amos Tversky is important background for anyone interested in financial markets.

Daniel Kahneman gave people an understanding of what drives financial decisions.

12/23/2022

A sign of easing pressure on inflation rates.

Ports are clear, shipping rates have plunged, retailers enjoy ample inventory and delivery companies have spare capacity.

11/17/2022

Will the real inflation rate please stand up? The media has been focused on year-over-year inflation but looking at month-over-month inflation gives a better indication of trends. Headline CPI year-over-year is 7.7% but that breaks down to 1.7% annualized over the past 4 months and 10.9% over the prior 8 months. Now some of that slowdown is due to falling energy prices so let's look at "core" CPI which excludes food and energy. Core CPI is up 6.3% year-over-year but it's up 4.8% over the last 4 months and 7.0% over the prior 8 months. The conclusion is that (1) inflation is slowing, (2) current inflation is close to the Fed Fund rate, now at 3.88% and probably rising to 4.38% or 4.63% on Dec 14, and (3) the Fed needs to pause (after another 50bps on Dec 14) and give the economy some time to digest their rate increases of 2022 before acting further.

06/14/2022

Market Benchmark Update as of May 31, 2022
If you don't have specific portfolio performance benchmarks, you don't have financial goals.
Our clients receive monthly reports showing portfolio performance so they can see progress toward achieving financial goals.
Below is a report of our most important benchmarks.

U.S. stock market: Year-to-Date
Vanguard Total U.S. Stock Market ETF (VTI): -14.3%
Vanguard Large-Cap ETF (VV): -14.4%
Vanguard Small-Cap ETF (VB): -13.5%
Vanguard [Large-Cap] Growth ETF (VUG): -23.9%
Vanguard [Large-Cap] Value ETF (VTV): -1.5%
Vanguard Small-Cap Growth ETF (VBK): -23.9%
Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF (VBR): -5.8%

International stocks: YTD
Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (VT): -12.7%
Vanguard Total International Stock ETF (VXUS): -10.6%
Vanguard Developed Markets ETF (VEA): -10.7%
Vanguard Emerging Markets ETF (VWO): -11.5%

Bonds: YTD
iShares U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG): -8.7%

Real Estate: YTD
Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ): -14.1%

Blended Equity/Bond Allocations:
Vanguard 80% stock/20% bond fund (VASGX): -12.1%
Vanguard 60% stock/40% bond fund (VSMGX): -11.2%

07/02/2021

Peter Thiel's Roth IRA is worth $5 billion. That's right, billion with a "B". That money grows tax-free and he and his heirs can take distributions from it tax-free after he turns 59 1/2.

Instead of focusing on the political or policy implications, I want to focus on the value of excellent financial planning. Peter, either on his own or through a financial advisor, made excellent decisions regarding funding his Roth IRA and converting Traditional IRA assets into Roth IRA assets. Of course he also had exclusive access to shares of stock that achieved incredible returns.

Now I'm not going to say or imply that I can grow your Roth IRA to anywhere near $5 billion, I can't. But what I can do is help you understand that where your money goes is just as important as what you buy with it. That is the value of a financial advisor and that is why more and more people are using financial advisors than ever before.

The new focus on retirement-account limits raises questions about saving strategies for everyone, not just the superrich

02/11/2021

Market Benchmark Update as of January 31, 2021
U.S. Stocks hit all-time highs in January only to drop back below year-end numbers at the end of the month. Small caps crush the large caps.
Did your portfolio measure up?

Overall U.S. stock market: January 2021
S&P 1500 Composite Index: -0.7%
Russell 3000 Index: -0.4%
Vanguard Total Stock ETF (VTI): -0.3%
S&P Large Cap 500: -1.1%
S&P Small Cap 600: 6.2%
S&P Large Cap 500 Growth: -0.5%
S&P Large Cap 500 Value: -1.6%

International stocks: January 2021
MSCI Ex-US stock index: 0.2%
Vanguard Intl Stock ETF (VXUS): 0.3%

Bonds: January 2021
Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Index: -0.7%
iShares U.S. Aggregate ETF (AGG): -0.7%

Real Estate:
S&P U.S. REIT Index: 0.1%
Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ): 0.0%

Blended Equity/Bond Allocations:
Vanguard 80% stock/20% bond fund (VASGX): -0.3%
Vanguard 60% stock/40% bond fund (VSMGX): -0.4%

Market Commentary from Concho Investment Advisors, providing investment management, financial advisory, and securities management solutions throughout West Texas and the entire United States.

01/13/2021

How did your investments do in 2020? The disparity of returns in 2020 was unusually high, meaning that many portfolios performed great while others did awful. If your portfolio lost more than 1% or 2% vs. benchmarks you need to take a hard look at why. Pull out your year-end statements and compare them here:

Overall U.S. stock market: Year-to-Date
S&P 1500 Composite Index: 17.9%
Russell 3000 Index: 20.9%
Vanguard Total Stock ETF (VTI): 21.0%
S&P Large Cap 500: 18.4%
S&P Small Cap 600: 11.3%
S&P Large Cap 500 Growth: 33.5%
S&P Large Cap 500 Value: 1.4%

International stocks: YTD
MSCI Ex-US stock index: 11.1%
Vanguard Intl Stock ETF (VXUS): 10.7%

Bonds: YTD
Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Index: 7.5%
iShares U.S. Aggregate ETF (AGG): 7.5%

Blended Equity/Bond Allocations:
Vanguard 80% stock/20% bond fund (VASGX): 15.5%
Vanguard 60% stock/40% bond fund (VSMGX): 13.6%

Market Commentary from Concho Investment Advisors, providing investment management, financial advisory, and securities management solutions throughout West Texas and the entire United States.

12/05/2020

Market Benchmark Update as of November 30, 2020
Stocks had a great month in November with many indices hitting all-time highs.
Did your portfolio measure up?

Overall U.S. stock market: Year-to-Date
S&P 1500 Composite Index: 13.3%
Russell 3000 Index: 15.7%
Vanguard Total Stock ETF (VTI): 15.6%
S&P Large Cap 500: 14.0%
S&P Small Cap 600: 2.7%
S&P Large Cap 500 Growth: 28.2%
S&P Large Cap 500 Value: -2.1%

In November, the gaps narrowed between large cap and small cap, growth and value.
International stocks: YTD
MSCI Ex-US stock index: 5.2%
Vanguard Intl Stock ETF (VXUS): 4.6%
Bonds: YTD
Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Index: 7.4%
iShares U.S. Aggregate ETF (AGG): 7.4%
Real Estate: YTD
S&P U.S. REIT Index: -10.5%
Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ): -7.2%
Blended Equity/Bond Allocations:
Vanguard 80% stock/20% bond fund (VASGX): 11.0%
Vanguard 60% stock/40% bond fund (VSMGX): 10.2%