06/02/2026
Kevin and Steven both retire at 65.
They each have $1.5 million saved.
Same plan. Same withdrawals. Same long-term average return.
But their outcomes couldn’t be more different.
Kevin retires into a strong market.
His portfolio grows early, even while he’s taking income.
Steven retires right before a downturn.
The market drops, and he’s forced to withdraw from a declining portfolio.
Same strategy. Same discipline.
Different timing.
Fast forward 20 years…
Kevin is in great shape.
Steven is running low.
What caused the gap?
Sequence of returns risk.
It’s not just about how much the market returns.
It’s about when those returns show up.
When you’re working, downturns can actually help.
You’re buying in at lower prices.
But in retirement, the early years matter more than people realize.
Losses early on can create a hole that’s hard to recover from, even if the market eventually rebounds.
Same average return.
Very different outcome.
That’s why retirement planning isn’t just about hitting a number.
It’s about building a strategy that can handle bad timing.
Because the market will fluctuate. That part is guaranteed.
What’s not guaranteed is that your plan can handle it.