06/18/2026
The geopolitical landscape in the Middle East is shifting again, and it is bringing a major structural change to the global energy supply chain.
With the US and Iran reaching a ceasefire agreement, many in the market expected oil shipping through the crucial Strait of Hormuz to fully return to normal. However, a recent report from Goldman Sachs ( ) suggests a very different reality: the cargo flow may only recover to about 70% of its pre-war levels.
According to data from the International Energy Agency, the Strait of Hormuz used to handle around 20 million barrels per day of crude and petroleum products. After mutual blockades, visible exports dropped drastically to just 1.3 million barrels per day. While Goldman Sachs expects shipping volumes to bounce back by adding 13 million barrels per day by next month, the new baseline will likely cap at around 14 million barrels per day.
Why won't it fully recover? The answer lies in how Middle Eastern oil producers adapted during the conflict.
Major players like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iraq didn't just wait around. They actively built and utilized alternative routes to bypass the strait entirely. For instance:
- Saudi Arabia boosted pipeline transport to the Port of Yanbu on the Red Sea.
- The UAE shifted significant export volumes to the Port of Fujairah on its east coast.
- Iraq ramped up its exports through Turkey’s Port of Ceyhan.
Currently, while the Strait of Hormuz only sees 1.3 million barrels per day of visible crude exports, these alternative routes are handling a massive 7.5 million barrels per day. The UAE has even announced plans to further expand its east coast ports, aiming to reduce its reliance on the Strait of Hormuz to almost zero. Kuwait is exploring similar options via Saudi and UAE pipeline networks.
For energy investors, this represents a permanent shift in global logistics. Even with peace restored, these alternative channels are here to stay. This structural diversification could reduce the premium on geopolitical risks in the strait over the long term, but it also means infrastructure and shipping dynamics in the Red Sea and Gulf of Oman will become much more critical to watch.
While a normalized supply is generally stabilizing for global energy markets, investors may want to monitor how this reallocation impacts shipping costs and regional infrastructure stocks moving forward.
Not financial advice.