Vegh Wealth Management

06/02/2026

Market Signals Podcast

Technical Analysis to Navigate Today's Markets

Katie Stockton, founder of Fairlead Strategies, joins the LPL Market Signals podcast this week to share her disciplined, technically driven approach to navigating today’s markets. In the conversation, Katie breaks down her framework for analyzing price trends, momentum, and market breadth, offering listeners a clear view into how she uses technical analysis to identify shifting conditions, emerging opportunities, and manage risk.

Katie Stockton shares her disciplined approach to technical analysis, helping investors identify price trends, manage risk, and find market opportunities.

06/02/2026

Weekly Market Commentary

Add Context, and Stock Market Valuations are Fair

We agree with the consensus view that stock valuations are elevated by traditional measures. But valuations should be considered in the context of the economic regime and earnings environment.

Factoring in economic outlooks: Factoring in outlooks for economic growth, inflation, interest rates, and earnings, we are comfortable with the current 21 price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) for the S&P 500 Index. To justify a higher P/E and further moves higher from here, assumptions must be made about the path that these key drivers will take in coming months.

Optimism is currently priced in: We expect more of these factors to break positively than negatively, but it seems clear that a lot of optimism is currently being priced in. When the next bear market might arrive and where valuations will be at that time is difficult, if not impossible, to predict, but our best guess is that this bull market extends through 2027 (we define a bear market as a 20% decline on the S&P 500 based on closing prices).

Future gains depend on growth: Gains beyond that will depend on whether the economy continues to grow, the path of interest rates and inflation, and the productivity gains (and potentially unemployment) AI brings.

Discover why current stock market valuations are fair when considering economic growth, inflation, interest rates, and the AI-driven earnings outlook.

06/01/2026

Carnival Cruise Line said it has detected a cybersecurity incident where certain travelers’ personal information may have been leaked.

05/30/2026

U.S. stocks extended their recent momentum during the holiday‑shortened week with the S&P 500 notching fresh record highs and a ninth consecutive weekly gain. Investor sentiment remained anchored in optimism around the artificial intelligence (AI) theme and a potential truce between the U.S. and Iran, while falling oil prices and weaker bond yields were also supportive. Europe and Asia also broadly found traction on the same dynamics, amid local headlines. Meanwhile, commodities broadly declined as crude fell sharply with a U.S.-Iran agreement seemingly in the works, while gold moved higher.

LPL's Weekly Market Performance for the week of May 25, 2026, highlights high-profile market drivers, commodity market moves, and economic data.

05/27/2026

Street View Video: Iran Conflict: Nearing the 90-day Mark

LPL Research’s Marc Zabicki analyzes the Iran Conflict as it approaches its 90-day mark.

The current US-Iran conflict began on February 28 when the U.S. and Israel launched large-scale strikes on Iranian military, nuclear, and leadership targets.

In this latest edition of LPL Street View, we are going to break down what’s actually happening now in the U.S.–Iran conflict, what strategy Washington is pursuing, and most importantly — how investors should interpret the recent rally in equity markets despite ongoing geopolitical tension. For more on how markets move in cycles, see Shifting Sands: Asset Trends Over Time

Analyze the US-Iran conflict's 90-day mark. Understand Washington's strategy and how financial advisors should interpret the recent equity market rally.

05/26/2026

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05/26/2026

Market Signals Podcast: Global Bond Selloff: Drivers of Rising Long-End Yields

In this episode, LPL Research breaks down the forces driving the global bond selloff, from central banks falling behind the curve to rising term premia and geopolitics. We also explore the implications for equities, credit, and portfolio positioning, and what levels could bring buyers back into the bond market.

Discover the global forces driving the bond selloff and rising long-end yields. Explore implications for equities, credit, and portfolio positioning.

05/26/2026

Weekly Market Performance — May 22, 2026

Global equity markets finished the week higher after rebounding from early declines, supported by easing geopolitical tensions, lower interest rates, and another solid round of corporate earnings. International developed markets outperformed, with the MSCI EAFE Index gaining more than 2%, while emerging markets advanced over 1.5%. The S&P 500 rose 1%, extending its winning streak to eight consecutive weeks, its longest stretch of weekly gains since 2023.

Investor sentiment improved as optimism surrounding a potential agreement between the U.S. and Iran helped reduce geopolitical concerns. Reports indicating progress on the latest peace proposal, combined with a pullback in both Treasury yields and oil prices, provided additional support for broader risk assets.

On the policy front, Kevin Warsh was officially sworn in as the new Chair of the Federal Reserve (Fed) on Friday. Warsh takes over an increasingly divided Fed, with minutes from the April Federal Open Market Committee meeting revealing a more hawkish tone among policymakers. The minutes showed that “many” participants favored removing the easing bias from the Fed’s policy statement as inflation risks remain elevated.

U.S. Equities: Momentum continued this week for U.S. equities, with the S&P 500 finishing the week back near record-high territory. Buying pressure was broad, as advancing shares on the index outpaced decliners by around 3:1. Small caps outperformed, with the Russell 2000 rallying nearly 3% and finishing the week just below its early May high. Hope for a continued path toward deescalation with Iran, stabilizing interest rates, and continued earnings strength supported risk appetite. S&P 500 earnings growth is tracking near 30% for the first quarter, materially ahead of expectations entering reporting season. Performance has once again been heavily influenced by mega-caps. The “Magnificent Seven” delivered earnings growth of roughly 63% during the quarter, accounting for more than half of the S&P 500’s total earnings growth. Still, strength beneath the surface has been better than many appreciate, with the remaining S&P 493 generating a solid 17% earnings growth rate this quarter, according to FactSet.

NVIDIA (NVDA) remained a primary market focus after delivering another strong beat-and-raise quarter, with management highlighting “parabolic” demand tied to AI infrastructure spending. The results reinforced confidence in the secular AI growth theme that continues to drive leadership within large-cap technology.

Retail earnings also drew attention this week following results from Walmart (WMT) and Target (TGT), where management commentary pointed to growing concerns around the durability of lower-income consumer spending trends.

LPL's Weekly Market Performance for the week of May 18, 2026, highlights tech earnings, economic data, and the Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement.

05/25/2026

Tactical Update: Rising Conviction on Earnings Growth

In last month’s update, we highlighted a shift from preparation to action as market conditions began to support increased equity exposure. Since then, that positioning has become even more grounded in fundamentals, as earnings have demonstrated strong growth. The improved backdrop also reflects an economy that continues to grow at a solid pace and a market that has remained resilient through recent geopolitical uncertainty.

The LPL Research Strategic and Tactical Asset Allocation Committee (STAAC) recently upgraded equities to overweight (by adding to small cap value), while trimming fixed income to underweight (via a reduction in mortgage-backed securities). That move reflects growing confidence in both the economic backdrop and the earnings outlook. Equity market leadership has remained concentrated in growth and large cap stocks, particularly within the technology sector, where continued investment in artificial intelligence (AI) is driving strong earnings trends. This leadership also reflects the scale of AI-related investment, which is disproportionately benefiting large cap companies with the balance sheet strength to fund that growth.

This earnings season has helped validate that view. As shown in the LPL Research Earnings Season Dashboard below, first quarter results have come in notably strong. Earnings growth is tracking at a torrid pace; a high percentage of companies are beating both earnings and revenue expectations, and forward estimates continue to move higher even late in the reporting cycle. Much of that strength is coming from the largest technology companies (the Magnificent Seven (Mag Seven) stocks have seen an average 57% earnings per share growth in Q1), but the overall tone of the season has been constructive. The average overall S&P 500 upside surprise has been strong, supported by communications services, consumer discretionary sectors, and semiconductors, while both earnings and revenue beat rates are running well above average. Forward estimates have also continued to rise in recent weeks, reflecting resilient demand and continued investment trends.

LPL Research provides an update on their tactical positioning and how strong earnings have influenced it.

05/25/2026

Today, we pay tribute to the courageous service members who gave their lives in defense of our country. This solemn day of remembrance allows us to reflect on the high cost of freedom and the remarkable bravery of those who sacrificed their lives to safeguard it.

Let us pause to honor these fallen heroes and their families. Their sacrifice guarantees that our cherished principles thrive for future generations.