MacroVex Capital

05/01/2026

April 2026 Market Update

At the April FOMC meeting the committee decided not to cut interest rates, leaving the federal funds effective rate at 3.50%-3.75%. The level of bank reserves and the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has risen since the end of 2025, but recently pulled back, signifying tightening of liquidity in th...

03/31/2026

March 2026 market Update

At the March FOMC meeting the Fed once again decided not to cut interest rates. Since the December meeting when the Fed decided to restart asset purchases (QE) on a small scale, liquidity has improved, but as previously hypothesized, these actions have not prevented employment growth from declining....

02/02/2026

January 2026 Market Update

Since the December FOMC meeting, where the Fed decided to once again embark on small asset purchases, otherwise known as QE, liquidity has improved. Mostly through the level of reserves in the banking system being boosted by the asset purchases. As previously mentioned, these actions will not preven...

12/31/2025

December 2025 Market Update

In our previous market update we discussed the need for the Fed to restart quantitative easing, and at the December FOMC meeting they did just that. Although the asset purchases are small, this change in monetary policy will boost the total monetary base, reserves, and liquidity, but it will not pre...

12/04/2025

Bank lending contracts with interest rates.

12/01/2025

November 2025 Market Update

In the previous market update we discussed the current low level of bank reserves or liquidity in the financial system, which has so far forced the Federal Reserve to end quantitative tightening and consider re-starting quantitative easing.The U.S. financial system is currently experiencing a liquid...

10/31/2025

October 2025 Market Update

There was no market update published for September, but we have a lot to cover through October. Buckle up, here we go. There is a growing concern that America is becoming a centrally planned economy and financial market. Though we are not there yet, the signs are there and worth investigating. Corpo...

08/31/2025

August 2025 Market Update
https://www.macrovex.com/post/august-2025-market-update

08/19/2025

Economic Update :

Building permit data was updated this morning. Which is a leading indicator for the economy.

Total Building Permits dropped to the lowest level of this current business cycle. Or since 2018.

Below are two charts which demonstrate building permits from 1971 - present and from 1995-2025.

The shaded areas on the chart are recessions. Every time since the early 1970's when total building permits fell below 1.4 million permits, the economy fell into recession shortly after.

Today's building permit number came in at 1.35 million.

07/31/2025

July 2025 Market Update

Tomorrow August 1st, 2025, the tariffs go back on. Now that the OBBB is law and the Trump administrations agenda is funded, deficit spending can decline and the global playing field can be leveled. This may require some short-term pain.The government is running a record deficit in peace time to win....