11/11/2026
When markets fall, the instinct is to wait — to do nothing until things recover. But a down year is, for some retirees, one of the more interesting moments to look at a Roth conversion, precisely because the account is worth less on paper than it was.
Here's the logic. A Roth conversion means moving money from a traditional IRA into a Roth and paying the tax on the amount you convert. When the account value has dropped, the same number of shares can be converted at a lower dollar value — which means a lower tax cost to move them. If those investments later recover inside the Roth, that recovery can happen in an account where qualified withdrawals may come out tax-free under current rules.
But — and this is the part that matters — a conversion is never only a market decision. Converting adds to your taxable income for the year, which can affect how much of your Social Security is taxed, which IRMAA tier sets your Medicare premiums two years out, and where you land in your bracket. A conversion that looks attractive because the market is down can still be the wrong size, or the wrong year, once those connected effects are accounted for.
This is exactly why it helps when the same person manages both your investments and your taxes. Knowing the portfolio is down is only half the picture. Knowing how much room is left in your bracket before you trigger the next IRMAA tier or pull more of your Social Security into taxation is the other half — and the conversion decision lives where those two halves meet.
In this video, Paul Axberg — a CFP®, CPA, and CIMA® with nearly 30 years working exclusively with retirees and pre-retirees — explains why a market decline can open a conversion window, what a Roth conversion does under current tax rules, and why the size and timing of any conversion depend on the whole picture, not the market alone.
One advisor. One fee. Everything connected.
The opinions expressed herein are not meant to provide specific investment advice or serve as a prediction for future stock market performance. We recommend everyone consult with a financial professional for advice related to their own, individual financial situation or plan.
Paul D. Axberg is an investment advisor representative of, and securities and advisory services are offered through, USA Financial Securities, Member FINRA/SIPC. A Registered Investment Advisor located at 6020 E. Fulton St., Ada, MI 49301. Axberg Wealth Management is not affiliated with USA Financial Securities. View USA Financial Securities Form CRS:https://www.usafinancial.com/hubfs/Investor%20Documents/USA%20Financial%20Securities%20-CRS.pdf
For further information, please contact our office:
Axberg Wealth Management
Office: 13613 West Camino Del Sol Suite 3, Sun City West, AZ 85375
Main: 623-398-0128
Web: https://axbergwealth.com
