07/17/2026
A few weeks ago, several clients asked me whether they should buy SpaceX after the IPO.
My answer wasn't really about SpaceX. It was about process.
I shared research showing that, historically, IPOs have underperformed the broader stock market. I also reminded clients that no financial plan succeeds or fails because of a single hot stock.
One client later asked if he should buy more after the stock had already surged. My response:
"You can afford to speculate a little, but your plan will never pivot on the presence or absence of any IPO. Keep your eye on the prize."
Today, SpaceX has fallen below its IPO price. That doesn't prove the advice was right. And if the stock doubles tomorrow, the advice would still be the same.
Investing success isn't about finding the next big thing. It's about consistently owning great businesses, staying diversified, and allowing compounding to work for decades.
The goal isn't to maximize returns.
The goal is to maximize the probability of achieving your goals.
The media celebrates moonshots. History celebrates discipline.
The greatest threat to long-term wealth is often not missing the next big winner—it's abandoning a proven compounding strategy in the pursuit of one. 🚀
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